Expert: Berlin and Moscow Work to Find Solutions on Eastern Europe

Sergiu CEBAN Germany is making thorough preparations for the upcoming EU Council presidency, seeking to achieve tangible progress both in relations with Moscow and in the East European conflicts settlement Despite the passions around the pandemic and its aftermath, international politics is not slowing down and moving in its directions within the current agenda. In this sense, it is appropriate to recall a snap visit paid by the main Russian negotiator for Eastern Europe Dmitry Kozak to Berlin in May, which among other issues was focused on the situation in eastern Ukraine and ways out of the protracted confrontation. The so-called “Ukrainian issue” has long been dominant in relations between Moscow and the collective West, impeding a new form of relationship to replace the outdated post-Soviet model of coexistence. On June 2, it was Ukrainian delegation’s turn to pay an official visit to Berlin. It was headed by the presidential office chief Andriy Yermak and included senior officials responsible for Kiev’s stance on Donbass. Public statements by Ukrainian and German representatives do not reflect significant tangible results of negotiations. Berlin in a traditional manner called on the Ukrainian side to compromise, while Kiev negotiators voiced extremely tough positions on the entire range of controversial issues in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Experts are also cautious in evaluating the visit, the main purpose of which was apparently to exchange views and probe for a possible compromise to add momentum to the Normandy format agreements reached last fall. Germany will chair the EU Council from July 1, spending the last few months in thorough preparations. To confirm its status as the EU informal leader, Germany plans to come up with concrete decisions in several important areas crucial in strengthening the European Union position at the international level. Undoubtedly, Union’s post-pandemic internal stabilization will be a priority for the German Chairmanship. No less significant is to ensure predictability of scenarios on the southern and eastern borders of the EU. At the same time, the East European track looks much more promising in terms of reaching specific agreements. Moscow is also likely to pin certain expectations on the coming six months, especially regarding the European sanctions relief, which depends largely on the Donbass conflict settlement. By the way, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the presidency of the EU Council opens up the opportunity for new impetus to relations between the European Union and the Russian Federation, and tangible progress on eastern Ukraine will enable lifting sanctions. Kiev also sees reason in strengthening its position among the European Union members given the upcoming political and diplomatic processes that will most directly affect Ukraine’s interests and future solutions with Moscow. This can explain the recent Hungarian-Ukrainian agreements on softening Ukraine’s stance on language legislation strongly rejected in Budapest. At the same time, some experts suggest that Kyiv through these actions is preparing to grant a regional status to the Russian language, which is definitely an integral element of the future Donbass settlement. Meanwhile, on June 2, another significant meeting, this time for Chisinau, took place between the head of the Romanian Foreign Ministry Bogdan Aurescu and German Ambassador to Bucharest Cord Meier-Klodt. During the conversation, the diplomats discussed not only bilateral relations, but also the political situation in the Republic of Moldova, and agreed to coordinate Romanian-German actions on the Moldovan track during the German presidency of the EU Council. “Time check” for Moldova is not accidental, being part of a broad interaction context on Eastern European conflicts between leading world actors. Meier-Klodt is known to be well acquainted with the Transdniestrian conflict dossier, as he personally participated in the settlement process in 2016 as the German OSCE Chairmanship’s special representative. It is worth noting that at that time Germany achieved tangible results managing to restart negotiations between Chisinau and Tiraspol, which were stagnating for several years. It was in 2016 that the Berlin Protocol was signed, which became the basic agenda for the parties to the conflict and has retained its relevance to this day. The upcoming fall will witness a new electoral Rubicon in Moldova: presidential elections are expected in November. In addition, amid a new crisis, many political actors started talking about the desirability to hold early parliamentary elections as soon as possible. Current processes show that international development partners are actively involved in designing Moldova’s future political configuration through plans, approaches and positions coordination. Bucharest is known to have significant influence on the neighboring Moldovan state. In addition, Romania is a consistent partner of the United States in this region. The fact that Germany and Romania conjugate their efforts today proves that ongoing processes are closely monitored and that Berlin has ambitions during its presidency of the EU Council. It cannot be ruled out that it is Romania that will be entrusted with the mission to present the Western actors’ interests. If the assumption is true, the Romanian factor in Moldovan affairs will soon be strengthened and intensified, including via support of political forces siding with Bucharest.