Following Russia's Example? Why Moldova Is Going to Change the Constitution

While the opposition is "licking its wounds" after the failed vote of no confidence in the Cabinet, the government is taking over the initiative, and has already announced changes to the country's fundamental law Vladimir ROTAR, RTA: After the Candu-Shor group's sting operation titled the "vote of no confidence in the Chicu government" failed and the parliament left for summer recess, political life in the country calmed down a bit. The ruling coalition and President Igor Dodon are taking advantage of this repose to finally get out of the defensive regime and impose their own agenda. One of such headline stories designed to grip the audience are amendments to the constitution, initiated personally by the head of state. With lacking details, this topic has already generated a lot of rumors and speculation. The Commission on Constitutional Reform, created on July 29, was given a year to find the gaps in the constitutional system and prepare proposals to improve it, but this is just about all we know at the moment. At the same time, some experts draw obvious parallels with similar processes in the Russian Federation, where a referendum on amendments to the basic law was held this year. Recall, its results were good for the authorities: more than 70% of the population voted in favor. It is worth noting that the amendments to the Russian constitution were needed primarily to mobilize the existing political system, which began to feel a little feverish against the backdrop of growing rumors about the transfer of power. Therefore, the "zeroing" of the terms for Vladimir Putin, simultaneously amplifying his powers, which is in fact the key moment in the amendments, was expected to line up the entire structure and set it up for further work amid the ongoing confrontation with the West. At the same time, the political bloc, which seemed ambiguous to some part of the population, was "compensated" by the theses about the historical truth, traditional values, the state-forming Russian people, more familiar and understandable to people. All this was flavored with the "social" segment in the form of pensions indexation and social benefits, the minimum wage fixation, etc. Of course, due to the pandemic, the topic of constitutional changes faded a bit, but still sparked enough attention, ending up as this year's main political topic in Russia. Dodon, and Moldova as a whole, face quite ambitious tasks, of course, adjusted for the local scale. The president has more than enough reasons to think about making adjustments to the basic law. Over the years of sovereignty, and especially over the past ten years, the Constitution has long become a convenient toy for Moldovan politicians. And the Constitutional Court at a certain stage turned from a defender of the fundamental law into a servant of the oligarchic regime and its main weapon to seize the Moldovan state. Many tricks were pulled by "Plahotniuc's pocket court" during these years: the supremacy of the Declaration of Independence over the Constitution was recognized, the president was removed from power several times, and returned back bypassing all procedures for direct presidential elections. One should not forget that during last June's events it was the Constitutional Court that became the last bastion of the oligarch's resistance, provoking a dual-power situation in the country by its decisions. In this sense, it is not surprising at all that the powers and status of the Constitutional Court, according to Dodon, will be the primary object of the constitutional amendments. But what about other changes? Will it be just amendments or the commission will prepare a new text of the basic law? There are no clear answers to these questions yet. The situation has two aspects. Firstly, this topic is very opportune as a political technological element in the context of the presidential elections. The amendments to the basic law are an excellent news source, resonant enough to shake up the Moldovan society, tired of corruption scandals and geopolitical squabbles. It is possible that the issue of constitutional amendments is important for the current government precisely as a "red button". By clicking on it today, Igor Dodon sets his own agenda for discussions in society, and also demonstrates confidence in his second presidential term, showing everyone that the elections personally for him are almost the past history with a predictable positive result, therefore the leader of the nation is seriously concerned about the really important strategic problems  for the country. It is quite possible that, having successfully completed its electoral mission at this stage, the constitutional draft will receive a second political breath already ahead of the parliamentary elections, spinning up with renewed vigor and generating new waves of public response. On the other hand, in case of Dodon's victory in November, the authorities will receive additional grounds to actually amend the Constitution. So far, unlike the Russian scenario, we are talking exclusively about changes in the political bloc. In his statements, the president also mentioned party-switching, and the dual citizenship of officials, and - I repeat - the status of the Constitutional Court. At the same time, the commission may well charge the draft amendments with really interesting and intriguing content during the year of its work, at least in terms of the political system transformation. In the end, the parliamentary model with the president as a wedding general in the Moldovan realities proved to be of little use, leading either to protracted crises or to autocratic oligarchic rule. Therefore, if the internal political situation turns to be favourable in a year, a redistribution of powers is possible with the reinforced presidential role and a clear consolidation of the status of some institutions - first of all, of course, the Constitutional Court. In this case, it is very likely that, as in Russia, they will try to balance the political bloc with the social and ideological concepts: for example, with the consolidation of the same traditional values and Moldovan identity, which, moreover, will be correlated with the established image of the president. Another intrigue of this process: will I. Dodon try to repeat the scenario of "zeroing" the terms, just like his Russian counterpart did? The president, who has managed to make many influential enemies for himself, understands that keeping him at the center of the republic's political processes is not just a matter of power and prosperity, but also the security of a wide range of people and business assets. Not to mention that if the Constitution is amended, Dodon will certainly have a desire to take advantage of the fruits of his own labors. Another thing is that Moldova is much less sovereign in its affairs than the Russian Federation. It is not hard to imagine what reaction from the majority of international development partners to such maneuvers performed by the head of state will follow. In any case, constitutional amendments are really overdue, and the work launched in their regard promises considerable prospects. The main thing is to avoid the scenario of the well-known saying, "They tried their best, you know the rest."