Unexpected Outcome of the First Round of the Presidential Elections in Moldova

Sergiu CEBAN The main sensation of Sunday’s vote is the victory of opposition candidate Maia Sandu, who automatically makes it to the second round of the presidential election as a favorite. However, sitting president Igor Dodon also retains the chances of success. On November 1, the presidential elections were held in Moldova, the main sensation of which was the first place of the opposition candidate Maia Sandu, who received 36% of the vote. The incumbent head of state Igor Dodon received 33% of votes. Now the republic is waiting for the second round of elections due to take place in two weeks. As expected, the overall turnout in the country was lower compared to the 2016 elections, and amounted to about 43%. Political apathy and a challenging epidemiological situation were perhaps the main reasons for the decreased interest in the first round of elections. At the same time, the Moldovan diaspora in the countries of the European Union, on the contrary, showed much greater motivation and cohesion, almost tripling the turnout compared to 2016. According to experts, the foreign voters, who traditionally give preference to pro-Western politicians in Chisinau, became one of the decisive factors in Maia Sandu’s interim victory. The most scandalous episode of the first round was voting of the left-bank Moldovan citizens. The main epicenter of the actions announced by the combatants to counter the “election theft” was the village of Varnita, which was the place for several resonant situations when the highway was blocked. In general, the turnout of the Transdniestrian residents wasn’t that high and amounted to about 15 thousand voters. It is difficult to assess how effective was the defensive reflex of the 1992 Moldovan veterans for the final election results, but there is no doubt that the Tiraspol administration will turn that situation against Chisinau. The main thing that neither sociologists nor experts could predict was the unexpectedly weak indicators of the incumbent president, who was supposed to occupy the first place according to almost all polls. Thus, the first round can be bottom-lined as a sensitive defeat for the authorities and, at the same time, a victory for the opposition, whose representatives in total gained significantly more votes. Before the second round, Moldova will have two difficult weeks, which, most likely, will be much more vibrant. A moral defeat will prevail over the electoral headquarters of Igor Dodon, while the main opponent will most likely try to seize the initiative and continue his campaign from the race leader position. Nevertheless, the overall situation looks far from unambiguous, and both candidates still have the chances to come first to the finish line. Mobilizing a loyal electorate, which Maia Sandu did well in the first round, will remain essential. It is known that a considerable number of citizens, including those undecided, traditionally give preference to voting in the second decisive round, so on November 15 we should expect a higher participation in the voting. On the other hand, the downright poor organization of the diaspora’s voting (many of which had to wait in a long queue before entering polling stations) could potentially reduce turnout at foreign polling stations on November 15. The main intrigue of the second round is how the votes of the candidates left behind will be distributed, and who exactly, Sandu or Dodon, will be able to win over the required number of voters. One of the revelations of these elections was Renato Usatii, who came third to the finish line with a result of about 17%. According to the voting results, we can say that the mayor of Balti has asserted himself as Igor Dodon’s major left-flank rival. Therefore, in case of early parliamentary elections, with a high degree of probability, they will bring significant electoral losses to the Party of Socialists. During the election campaign, Renato Usatii tried to win over the maximum number of anti-systemic and protest electorate, which is likely to be inclined to either ignore the second round or support the opposition-minded Maia Sandu. Violeta Ivanov, who came fourth with 6.5%, can perhaps become one of the key “donors” for Igor Dodon. As noted earlier, a certain compromise is likely to emerge between the leader of the same name party, Ilan Sor, and the socialists, which might be followed by a reshuffle in the parliamentary majority structure. At the same time, Sor’s reputation makes it difficult to openly transfer voters to Igor Dodon’s asset. Therefore, Violeta Ivanov’s public position before the second round is expected to be extremely balanced. The right-wing and unionist candidates with their total modest result of about 8% are of interest exclusively to Maia Sandu’s campaign headquarters. Now, she must show maximum flexibility and talent in order to consolidate these voices around her person without losing her other supporters. At the same time, surprises can be expected in this regard, since the probable transfer of voters in favor of the first-round leader may be conditioned by the off-beat claims from the ex-candidates. Despite the change of favorites following the first stage of the presidential race, the insignificant gap between the key rivals indicates that neither of them enjoys a clear advantage. The November 15 ballot still has too many unknown variables that can drastically affect the outcome of the entire race. At the same time, the results of the first round should, first of all, give food for thought to the team of the incumbent president, who, obviously, failed to get much votes. Now, Igor Dodon’s headquarters will have to seriously puzzle their heads about how to reverse the latest negative trends and turn the course of the presidential elections in their favor.