Expert: In the Framework of Confrontation with Russia the West Is Actively Increasing Its Influence in Moldova

Sergiu CEBAN One of its primary "targets" is the Transdniestrian issue, that is to be "unfrozen" not within the best conditions for Moscow. During this week, the topic of the Russian military presence in Moldova was so intensively drawn into the information funnel that it managed to successfully gain a foothold in the news top of both: regional and international press. Nothing foreshadowed such a sharp increase in attention to the issue of Russian peacekeeping in Moldova, and the unremarkable statements about the need to evacuate the Russian military and transform the peacekeeping operation, that Maia Sandu voiced several times, were clearly not sensational. Most likely, the new president could not ignore the left bank and everything connected with for one simple reason: Sandu's political master plan is basically aimed at cleansing the state of corruption which, in her opinion is closely related to the uncontrolled part of the country. This is how can be explained the accentuated discourse on the topic of the Transdniestrian region which apparently, holds the keys to Moldovan corruption. In the meantime, the flywheel of Russian propaganda gained the necessary momentum and with all its strength might fall upon Igor Dodon’s successor. Comments and accusations of the Moldovan head of state's irresponsibility were made at the level of the Kremlin, the Foreign Ministry and a number of federal officials. Earlier, in our materials, it was noted that making frank statements on the most pressing issues of the Russian-Moldovan agenda is probably not the best start for the new Moldovan leader, who has no need to prove his loyalty to Western partners. As already known, the Transdniestrian settlement is not in its best condition and apparently, needs fresh ideas and reasonable initiatives. Over the past years, the situation in the negotiations has deteriorated so much that this year the mediators and observers have not found a reason to hold the next "5 + 2" format meeting. Igor Dodon's active presence on the settlement track fueled hopes that the issue would at least be in a flexible state and that in the coming years Moscow and the West would be able to arrive to a mutually acceptable formula for a final settlement and stabilize the situation in the post-Soviet space. However, the results of the presidential elections in Moldova, it seems, will bring even greater unpredictability to the Transdniestrian problematic and lead to aggravation. While at the local level the preconditions for a serious turnaround in relations between the banks of the Dniester are not yet visible, the outer contour began showing not very good signs; well that could lead to a rapid development of negative scenarios and to complication in the regional situation. In particular, we are talking about the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg’s statements that Moldova is a partner of the alliance, the territorial integrity of which Russia is grossly violating by deploying its troops in Transdniestria. Even if Brussels was pursuing the goal of standing up for the elected president, whom Moscow decided to “siege” a little for pedagogical purposes, this was probably not done in the best way. Strengthening the factor of the North Atlantic Alliance in the context of the Transdniestrian issue will provoke Moscow to a much more uncompromising position. Nor do inspire optimism Stoltenberg's statements about NATO's plans to increase its presence in the Black Sea region, primarily by strengthening interaction with Ukraine and Georgia, as well as other members of the alliance that are directly involved in ensuring regional security. There is no doubt that the consistent militarization of the Northern Black Sea region will only increase the level of risks and the threat of a direct military clash with Russian units stationed on the Dniester, out of which citizens and politicians on both sides of the river are unlikely to benefit. Such tendencies may indicate that the West has a steady intention to launch a process of controlled defrosting of the Transdniestrian conflict with a gradual change in the existing status quo. In addition, the appearance of the Moldovan case on the agenda of significant issues of the Euro-Atlantic structures is by no means accidental and is the result of many years of systematic work, and we can only expect an increase in practical tools in the future. As an example, it is enough mentioning the recent appearance of the American military adviser (liaison) in Moldova’s Ministry of Defense. Thus, taking as well into account the change of administration in the White House, we can expect a systematic increase of Western pressure on the Moldovan direction in the near future, so that to convince the Kremlin loosening its grip in this region and start the political settlement of the Transdniestrian conflict. For Moscow, this is a serious challenge and choice: to join the dialogue on the proposed conditions or to follow the path of another sanctions, information and diplomatic confrontation with all the ensuing consequences.