What Is Igor Dodon Going to Moscow for?

Sergiu CEBAN Igor Dodon has already formed a strategy for the first half of 2021 and will try to once again convince Russian partners of his plan justification. Several important events will take place in Moldova this week, including the official change of the head of state that is to complete the 2020 political season. The overwhelming players majority are already actively focusing their energies on the coming year; a year that promises to be even more eventful. Several notable international visits are expected in the very near future, especially the symbolic (in every sense) participation of Romanian President Klaus Iohannis in Maia Sandu’s inauguration. The visit of the Moldovan President to Kiev, scheduled for early next year promises to contribute to unfreezing foreign policy horizons and accelerating the dynamics of certain regional processes as well, including the Transdniestrian settlement. The authorities and the opposition did not come to a common opinion on the most pressing issue related to parliament dissolution. Igor Dodon's proposal to agree on a short-term plan of action for the next six months, which would include country's legislative body resignation, did not find understanding among his opponents. Likewise happened to the opposition lawyers’ scenario inventions, it did not impress the current government. Thus, Dodon will most likely make the decision on a suitable date for the elections on his own, so that to once again demonstrate Sandu and the Moldovan voter whose hands the real country power is concentrated in. Igor Dodon has no plans to go down in history and openly signals a desire for political revenge. The most important event that can provide him with such an opportunity should be early parliamentary elections. According to experts, the last weeks before his term’s end, the outgoing President of the Republic of Moldova has become more active. His inherent tendency to seek compromises with any political partners has been replaced by tougher rhetoric and attempts to implement long-promised solutions. There is a danger of losing exclusive position in the dialogue with responsible Russian officials and the Kremlin for the outgoing president. Therefore, the motives for such an unconventionally rapid adoption of a series of laws before the head of state's mandate expiration are quite understandable, and they could cause a positive Russian response. The nature of the informal parliamentary majority actions testifies to the fact that the socialists and the "SHOR" tend to the inevitability of early parliamentary elections and have begun preparing them. The most noteworthy last week’s event was adopting the budget law that was hastily voted by the technical parliamentary majority at almost midnight apparently, to avoid another opposition’s performance on. At the same time, the country’s main financial document was ratified with a noticeable deficit and resources distribution between the PSRM, the SHOR and individual "independent" deputies. To curb any risks, deputies decided as well to close the autumn-winter session, including to disrupt the consideration of the vote of no confidence in the Ion Chicu government, initiated by the opposition forces. It should be emphasized that a certain resources amount was allocated to the DA Platform. Apparently, Andrei Nastase does still maintain contacts with Igor Dodon's entourage and is viewed as a potential spoiler for the PAS party close to Maia Sandu. Experts do believe as well, not at all accidental the controlled by authorities “farmer's protest” at the parliament building; a protest behind which are activists close to the “DA Platform”. Such a maneuver looks like an attempt to "stretch" Nastase's party rating. By the way, many have already noticed that demonstrations with agricultural machinery and the police on the steps of the state institution look more impressive than the recent Maia Sandu’s rally on the main square of Chisinau. Whilst the central streets of the capital are shaken by protest marches, Igor Dodon plans leaving for Moscow immediately after the presidential standard was handed over to his successor on December 24. Such an ex-president’s gesture, will demonstrate to everyone that, despite the lost office, he is still a “persona grata” in high Kremlin offices. In addition, to strengthen his position at the upcoming national congress of the PSRM on December 30, the future leader of the socialists must return from the Russian capital with a clear position and the Kremlin's vision of the configuration of socialists' participation in early elections. The electoral equation may complicate Igor Dodon's intention to convince Moscow of the need to participate in the elections in an informal partnership with Ilan Shor. According to the plan, this tandem can become the force capable to oppose the party of Renato Usatii, who is the main electoral rival on the left flank. As well known, to rehabilitate the leader of the SHOR party and his political image, a set of practical measures is being implemented in the country, including at the judicial and legislative levels. Igor Dodon will be accompanied on the trip by the Mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, and the governor of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah, who will become the main front-men of the Socialist Party election campaign. Many experts drew attention to Zinaida Grechanii’s absence in the delegation. That might signal she is somewhat distant from the president's team. The Speaker of Parliament has become more active in showing independence, possibly signaling her readiness to head a separate political project. Moscow, as well as Washington and Brussels, are well aware of the importance of the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections in determining the future of Moldova. As may be seen, Igor Dodon has already prepared his 2021 political plan struggle. The quality and realism of this plan will determine the success of his New Year's Russian trip to the snowy Moscow.