Expert: Russia and the West Are Preparing Their Next Moves in the Moldovan Direction

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Sergiu CEBAN Moscow, continues apparently relying on Igor Dodon and the Party of Socialists, while Chisinau's western partners can seriously increase aid volume to support the new President of Moldova Last Friday, Maia Sandu officially took office. The entire ceremony was organized in minimalist colors and in an environment of wide openness and accessibility. At the same time, the head of state tried to reduce to the limit the formal part with the participation of Igor Dodon in order to quickly open her own page in the modern history of Moldova. Already today, Sandu will have the opportunity to take the first steps and hold consultations with parliamentary factions about the current situation in the country and about conditions for announcing early parliamentary elections. Igor Dodon, nevertheless, does not intend giving up and flew to Moscow just the same evening, accompanied by Ion Ceban, Irina Vlah and the leadership of the Socialist Party. A few days earlier, an advanced group of party functionaries had moved to the Russian capital. Despite the background meetings in the Russian State Duma, the near future plans’ summing up and defining took place in Dmitry Kozak's office, as it seemed. The "determined team" demonstrative photographing in the office of the deputy head of the Russian presidential administration, apparently, should instill hope in the Moldovan voters after the unfortunate defeat in the presidential elections. To a certain extent, it relays as well the message to the Western capitals that the Kremlin intends to continue playing its game in the Moldovan direction. It looks like Moscow will continue placing its main stake on the Socialist Party headed by Dodon, which the ex-president sought after his defeat in the elections. It is possible to assume that in the past few days in the Russian capital, a "route sheet" was agreed. That would include: Igor Dodon to the post of PSRM chairman re-election; party's leadership formation and a new topical political program adoption - populist laws got passed according to over last weeks. With this baggage, to all appearances, the socialists will gradually launch their election campaign. The Transdniestrian leader’s next trip to Moscow can also be linked to the pre-election planning. Presumably, the left-bank voters are viewed as one of key auxiliary resources, which the diaspora factor has become for the opposition in the presidential elections. Therefore, it is possible that at the upcoming elections to the legislative body of the country we will see an even greater number of Transdniestrian votes. Regardless Igor Dodon’s transit status, the trip to Moscow has already been marked by the first results - in particular, the duty-free import of Moldovan agricultural products to the Russian market has been prolonged. Thus, the Kremlin retains for Dodon and the Socialist Party the levers of influence on a part of Moldovan business oriented towards Russia, which, in turn, ensures PSRM’s good positions within Moldovan regions and especially in the north of the country. At the same time, an important detail is the fact that imports were extended only for the first quarter of 2021. In fact, this is an evidence of the Russian government readiness to completely abolish the preferential status of Moldovan manufacturers, who are already forced to plan their business on a quarterly basis. Such an alarming signal might force enterprises still interested in exporting their products to Russia to seriously think about a gradual reorientation to the markets of the European Union. It should be noted that in conditions of a shaky domestic political situation, the West will most likely try to strengthen the position of the new president stabilizing the socio-economic situation and expanding support in the fight against the pandemic, up to providing a trial batch of Phizer vaccine. The ideal scenario, could of course be macro-financial assistance, including through the International Monetary Fund, which previously planned to open a solid credit line of more than $ 550 million. By the way, Bucharest has already set an example for Moldova's international partners and decided to allocate gratuitous financial assistance from the reserve fund of the Romanian government. Such a favorable background is still most likely, associated with the expected visit to Chisinau in the coming days by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, who will become the first foreign high-level guest for Maia Sandu. On the sidelines of the Moldovan government, there is talk that they expect much more attention and increased assistance from the Romanian colleagues, which was previously hindered by Igor Dodon and the Ion Chicu government loyal to him. As well known, the Moldovan-Romanian agenda of bilateral relations has a wide practical scope and has a largely inexhaustible potential for its development. Eventually, Romania is one Moldova’s main foreign economic partners and a key sales market for Moldovan products from both the right and left banks of the Dniester. According to the majority of Moldovan experts, Bucharest has become the main hope and support for the Moldovan elites striving to break off the post-Soviet space shackles and embark on the path of common European development. However, the prospects for external support will very much depend on the internal situation and on the degree of Maia Sandu’s political involvement in government affairs. Once Ion Chicu and several key ministers have left, two main issues are on the agenda: how to ensure the current retired government’s functionality, and how to generate early parliamentary elections. Such internal challenges will become a serious test for the new president, who is expected to be maximally inclusive and effective in political moderation in the context of the deepening socio-economic, political and sanitary-epidemiological crisis.