“No Change on the Front of European Integration”. What Does the New EU Plan for Moldova Say

Christian RUSSU Brussels is not going to radically change approaches towards our country, if analyzing the new EU plan for Moldova for the next seven years, and is to continue influencing Moldovan affairs supporting multi-faceted political forces and regimes loyal to the EU The European Union continues increasing its presence in Moldova when involving it more and more in the orbit of its influence through numerous projects, broad financial support and economic ties deepening. According to the latest sociological polls, 68.4% of the Republic of Moldova’s population supports Moldova's accession to the EU, 64.1% assess the current relations with the European Union as positive. Trade and economic cooperation are growing stronger as well. Thus, in January-November 2020, goods to the EU countries export amounted to 67.1% of the total export volume of Moldova, while export to the CIS countries reached only 15%. Although 10 years ago, similar indicators were more or less parity (47.3% for the European Union and 40.5% for the Commonwealth states). Interacting with Chisinau, the EU began to gradually influence almost all society spheres, starting with political institutions transformation and ending with local wastewater treatment projects. Since 2005, Brussels has funded 486 projects in a wide variety of sectors, 75 stands for the current year. Many formats for providing budgetary support, financial and technical assistance such as TAIEX, TWINNING, SIGMA, EUHLPAM and others have emerged. At the same time, Moldova has long ceased to be a European integration “success story” and every year has tested the strength of its key partner's trust. Well, economically, the republic managed to be tightly tied to the EU and teared it away from traditional markets; whilst within democratic reforms – everything is being sad. Chisinau has already been deprived of European funding several times due to high-profile corruption scandals, such as the billion theft in 2014-2015 and the invalidation of the Chisinau mayor in 2018 elections. The effectiveness of the financial assistance allocated to Moldova for the implementation of reforms is also criticized mercilessly. Suffice it recalling the European Court of Auditors report No. 13/2016 and the conclusions of the EU Foreign Affairs Council in February 2018. The first document noted that the € 782 million provided from 2007 to 2015 (the largest aid to the Eastern Partnership countries in terms of per capita), to put it mildly, “did not benefit” and did not give the desired result. And the current President of Moldova, for example, then colorfully described the results as "a D in all respects." Speaking in public, the head of the EU Delegation to the Republic of Moldova, Peter Michalko, always states there is no “minimum satisfactory progress” on the path of reform, stagnation and even backward movement. This is first of all, about reforms in the field of justice and the fight against corruption. In addition, in May last year, the EU Council approved an after 2020 policy towards the countries of the "Eastern Partnership". Following that very council, representatives of the EU countries had serious doubts about Moldova and other program participants’ "European aspirations". The document itself was sustained in a harsher tone than the decisions of previous years. As expected, Moldova's main problems remain unchanged: the rule of law, human rights observance, the justice system and the fight against corruption. Nevertheless, despite the formidable rhetoric, the European Union is in no hurry to completely curtail aid to its "unlucky child", and keeps on the practice of sponsoring politicians that are personally sympathetic to Brussels; a practice that has proven its dubious effectiveness. For example, immediately after the Maia Sandu’s government approving in July 2019, EU representatives signed three agreements on € 40 million funds provision, and in October-November Moldova received a € 30 million macro-financial assistance tranche (out of the total € 100 million funds). Then the European Commission and the external relations service noted that the political prerequisites for the aid program implementation were fulfilled, although it was obvious that the new government in just a couple of months work could not have time to do things that the previous authorities could not accomplish in several years. Apparently, the EU is going to adhere to these approaches in the future, especially after the pro-Western candidate triumph in the presidential elections. On February 1, representatives of the European External Action Service and the European Commission began work on identifying the priority areas of the EU's Multi-Year Indicative Plan 2021-2027 for Moldova. It is said to be "a policy document that will reflect the country's funding and sectoral priorities for the next 7 years." Specific Plan tasks will be determined at the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit. However, certain areas were noted in the proposal of the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs in March 2020. Thus, the main priorities will remain: economic sustainability, rule of law and security, the environment, digital transformation and the inclusive society. Whatever goals are indicated in this plan, everyone understands that the prospects for its implementation will primarily depend on the political stability in the country, which is definitely not foreseen in the near future. Already in the first year after its approval, the European Union risks facing a reshuffle in the government, early parliamentary elections, tough internal political competition and, as a result, paralysis and inability of state institutions to fulfill Moldova's obligations. It is most likely that Brussels understands well the whole vagueness of the republic's European integration prospects at the current stage, but it is not yet ready to offer any innovative recipes and solutions in comparison with the practice of past years. It is important for the EU to maintain its influence on Moldovan affairs and not to finally lose resources, already invested in Moldova. This predetermines cautious tactics and a certain approaches inertia when the stake is on  the allegedly "proven" politicians and parties without regard to the real results of their activities (that once has already led to the first stage of European integration’s failure). Such a situation does not promise much change for Moldova itself. as before, Chisinau will continue to tightly sit on the European "credit needle" (even for "lean" in this regard, for 2019-2020, our country received a € 60 million 15-year loan of EU macro-financial assistance), slowly losing its economic and political sovereignty without any special dividends for itself.