A Collision in Appointing the Government: Is PSRM's Retaliatory Move Coming Soon?

Sergiu CHEBAN The socialists will not support Natalia Gavrilita's first nomination for the post of prime minister in parliament, but they have a difficult choice to make before the second vote This week, the candidate for the Prime Minister of Moldova, Natalia Gavrilita, is expected to come to the country's legislative body to present her team of ministers and the government's work program for the next period. Despite the predetermined outcome, observers expect heated discussions between parliamentarians who are in the mood to demonstrate their personal importance in the political life of the state. By the end of last week, Igor Dodon had finally drawn a line in the question of whether the socialists would vote for the candidacy proposed by Maia Sandu. The answer is more than clear - they won't. Nevertheless, experts still wonder why the socialist leader was waiting this long to tell specifics and did not make that clear from the very beginning. The answer is apparently connected with the ex-president's expectations of certain signals from Sandu's entourage, including the possibility of coming to terms. Moreover, from the very beginning his messages regarding Natalia Gavrilita were quite positive. But it seems that the PSRM leader never received a desired response. Therefore, the socialists did not manage to implement their kind of a "Contractual Plan A", and they will gladly knock down the current candidate for the premiere. Now, according to some leaks from the PSRM headquarters, the socialist deputies, for electoral and political purposes, intend to give an earful to Maia Sandu's protégé and demonstrate before their voters that the totally pro-presidential government is absolutely not ready to run the country. Moreover, this step can be made by the Socialist Party representatives and their tactical partners in an effort to lay the necessary ground for implementing alternative options in the second voting for the new government. The events planned in parliament are at first glance quite predictable, since the key denouement is set for the second attempt, and until that moment the main political competitors will try to critically narrow each other's practical capacities. Therefore, it should not be ruled out that both Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu will try to act without delay at the decisive moment when the issue of the Natalia Gavrilita government is put to a vote. There is reason to believe that the president will try to issue a decree on re-nominating Gavrilita as quickly as possible. PSRM, in turn, in order not to miss the initiative in determining a candidate before the second attempt, may put more than 50 MP signatures for an alternative candidate on Maia Sandu's table even before the final voting stage which, according to the recent conclusion of the Constitutional Court of Moldova, she will be obliged to sign. As a result, the internal political process is likely to be again deadlocked due to a serious legal conflict with subsequent internal political debates and disputes to justify Maia Sandu's actions, who will obviously insist on the candidacy of Natalia Gavrilita. In that context, new clarifications from the country's main judicial body may not follow within the 45-day period set by the Constitution to the parliament to approve the new cabinet of ministers. Based on the statements made by the presidential supporters, Sandu decided to take full responsibility and is ready for different scenarios: from the recurrent failure of Natalia Gavrilita's candidacy, who already sounds quite confident in stating her intention to appear in the parliament again, up to appointing the government in the composition as proposed to the deputies, which will be (completely) staffed by the Sandu-Gavrilita tandem without much trouble. Igor Dodon and the socialists have a difficult task of saving face in the upcoming challenging game to join the election campaign from more stable positions. Last week, the PSRM leader openly announced his readiness to vote for the new Cabinet if the Socialist Party representatives are delegated to it, and the PSRM's updated program provisions are reflected in the work plan of the new government. This convincingly testifies to the ex-president's lack of real desire to start up early re-election of parliament in the current environment. Furthermore, closed sociological polls leaked to the press last week show fairly poor ratings of the Socialist Party, which was indirectly confirmed both by Igor Dodon himself and by several PSRM deputies. Such indicators, even without considering the diaspora's permanently growing electoral activity, give rise to expert forecasts discouraging for the socialists, which, in turn, increases conviction of the party's core to continue using the currently available to the PSRM parliamentary opportunities and gently postponing the idea of ​​snap elections. It is for this purpose that Igor Dodon develops the idea that Maia Sandu in no way wants to come to an agreement and will most likely proceed with the same uncompromising line in the new parliament, triggering endless unscheduled election campaigns and, consequently, unjustified state budget expenses. This idea should apparently become an indisputable motive for meeting the "interests of citizens" by approving the new cabinet of ministers already now, with the current composition of the people's representatives. Thus, the coming week promises an impressive spectacle in terms of re-nominating the prime minister to be considered by the parliament. The socialists are obviously at a crossroads, and in the very near future they will have a major decision to make: either take the risk and go to early elections now, or assume responsibility for the new cabinet once again.