"Healthy Moldova". Are There Any Chances for the Grosu Government?

Sergiu CEBAN Unlike Natalia Gavrilita, who was solving a purely technical task of setting the stage for early elections, Igor Grosu is clearly seeking a confidence vote in his government from the parliament Today, the parliament's permanent bureau will set the date for a plenary session, which is expected to be attended by applicants for ministerial positions led by the candidate for prime minister Igor Grosu to present their program "Healthy Moldova". Further, the possibility for a confidence vote in the new cabinet of ministers will be considered. After the Constitutional Court's verdict, Maia Sandu openly declared the potential government's readiness to take full responsibility for the domestic situation. In fact, the same personal composition as in Natalia Gavrilita's team suggests that the first attempt also implied the possibility for the government to be approved. To avoid time wasting, Grosu submitted all the necessary documents to the parliamentary secretariat and launched active consultations with parliamentary factions. He clearly demonstrates the seriousness of his intentions, in contrast to Gavrilita who openly stated that her task was purely technical. It is possible that Maia Sandu and the PAS leaders have somewhat adjusted their tactical line and heeded recommendations of their advisers and lawyers. Therefore, they stopped political pretense as to electing a new government and actively declare their desire to get the necessary number of votes from the people's deputies. It is possible that PAS is considering the possible approval of the Cabinet of Ministers as an additional resource enhancement in order to enter potential early elections from even more vantage positions, gaining the maximum control of administrative resources. Despite Igor Dodon's statements that the Socialist Party will gather its governing bodies literally the next day after the Constitutional Court's decision, so far nothing is known about the PSRM's position. Such silence, uncharacteristic for the largest parliamentary faction, may be a sign of discord in the socialist ranks, who got in a very extraordinary situation. It is highly possible that the PSRM and Shor party leaders continue tough negotiations on how to retain the parliamentary majority functional after Jardan and Ulanov's immunity is lifted, including with the help of the PSRM votes. The overwhelming majority of Moldovan experts, one way or another, agree that the probability for the Grosu government to receive the necessary votes and be approved is very high. The idea of good chances for the new Cabinet of Ministers is also promoted by  expert speakers of the Socialist Party, which, apparently, does not plan to vote for Grosu and sets the stage for PSRM's clamorous going into opposition. Such a move will allow the socialists to somehow save face, focusing on the methodical criticism of the government loyal to the president and smooth run-up to early elections, anticipating Grosu to fail. Expecting the Socialist Party to go into deep defense where it will calmly lick deep wounds after a series of painful political defeats may not be entirely justified. It should not be ruled out that the head of state's candidate might receive a vote from the rest of the parliamentary corps who are ready to solidarize with Maia Sandu in a certain way. The latter will clearly continue to ruin the socialists, once the necessary administrative tools and opportunities are obtained. By the way, various political parties show the desire to  participate in the struggle for the " PSRM's inheritance" (i.e. their released electorate) which will help some of them not only to keep the chances of getting into the new parliament, but even improve their standing. Therefore, voting for Igor Grosu may become a pretext for another anti-Dodon front, similar to the presidential elections. So far, the political parties are nobly holding a pause abstaining from substantive statements regarding their (un)willingness to vote for the proposed government. Most likely, the people's deputies plan to keep the intrigue until the very end, demonstrating to voters their principled character and significance of the moment, which has nothing in common with the banal desire of the majority of lawmakers to retain their parliamentary seats. Igor Grosu's visit to parliament promises to be a bleak sight for most of those who are following the Moldovan political reality. The socialists seem to be inclined to expose the pro-presidential cabinet as much as possible, since they clearly do not intend to bless their political opponents, but spoiling the startup of the Grosu government is quite feasible. The rest of the parliament also does not intend to arrange an easy walk for Maia Sandu's protégé, and plans to "reluctantly" issue a vote of confidence to the minority Moldovan government only after a hardcore mentor's conversation. The three-month term of the failure to elect the government expired today, March 24. The 45-day period envisaged for two attempts to approve the Cabinet will also end this week. Thus, if Grosu fails, the president seems to have enough reasons to file a substantiated request to the Constitutional Court as to the conditions for the dissolution of parliament. At the same time, according to experts, the Constitutional Court, in its latest conclusions, nevertheless left minor clues that leave room for interpretations and the possibility for further political uncertainty. This week provides Moldovan politicians with a real chance to put the protracted internal political battle at least on temporary hold and allow the country to get out of the pandemic. At the same time, it is quite obvious that the possible election of Igor Grosu for premiership will only complete another act in the current political season. There is no doubt that further struggle and inter-institutional wars during this year will be reignited and most likely become an inherent part of our everyday life.