Is Russia Activating the Transdniestrian Perimeter?

Sergiu CEBAN Most of the indicators show that jammed Transdniestrian settlement’s pinions got set in motion by Russian efforts. What’s that for? As was to be expected, the continuing tension in relations between Moscow and Kiev creates a wide gravitational field which gradually drags within various regional and international players. Despite the fact that Moldova is mainly focused on its complex internal political agenda, it seems that Chisinau will not be able to easily avoid an even partial involvement to the general regional context. Therefore, one way or another, it will have to be accountable to key Western capitals and Kiev. According to some indications, the current situation forces Ukraine re-considering the Russian military presence on the territory of the left bank as an additional threat. The latest information reports showed that Western and Ukrainian expert circles keep actively stirring this issue up; so, all this pushed Kiev to pull additional forces to the border with Moldova. First of all, of course, to its central Transdniestrian section and to organize temporary checkpoints there, following the 2014 example. Military experts believe that such Ukraine’s actions are largely justified, since confidence in Chisinau, which over recent years has provided reliable cover for the Ukrainian rear, is gradually decreasing due to a number of events that have an obvious correlation. The main reasons are rooted in the results of the recent joint visits of the Moldovan and Pridnestrovian delegations to Moscow, where, apparently, a number of fundamental decisions were made, and they are already quite tangible. First of all, attention is drawn to the fact that last week, following some direct and indirect signals, Chisinau and Tiraspol practically unblocked the work of the Joint Control Commission. It is known that for several months the work of this institute was rapidly plunging into a deep crisis, creating all the necessary prerequisites in order to further pose to Moscow a lot of uncomfortable questions about the functionality of the peacekeeping operation and, in principle, about the need of keeping its current form. Yesterday's chief negotiators Olga Cebotari and Vitaly Ignatiev meeting, who held their first face-to-face meeting in Bendery, abandoning the traditional OSCE Mission platform, looks no less original. That is, away from international participants’ attentive gaze who are involved in the negotiation process. Parties issued stingy and almost identical comments on conversation results which was said to be focused on finding practical solutions to existing problems. The comments do of course, organically fit into the Moscow’s general line but at the same time raise many questions. Against this background, the interest of Western emissaries to Moldova and, in particular, to the Transdniestrian administration has noticeably increased. Thus, the British Ambassador accompanied by his Military Attaché paid a visit to Tiraspol the other day. During the conversation, as indicated, the parties discussed the current situation in the negotiation process and security issues. Most likely, the topics discussed were viewed through the prism of a complex regional equations with a set of unknowns, one of which is Tiraspol. No longer than today, the head of the OSCE Mission, Klaus Neukirch, and the Head of the European Union Delegation Peter Michalko arrived on the left bank. They are to probably conduct additional situation reconnaissance for Brussels and Vienna in connection with the unexpectedly increased dynamics of events, one can clearly see a Kremlin trace behind. In addition, there is reason to believe that the sharp surge in attention to Moldovan issues is not at all a temporary phenomenon but apparently, a manifestation of much more systemic shifts caused primarily by the current aggravation around Ukraine. Sources in Chisinau report that an early visit of mediators and observers in the negotiation process is expected to come to Moldova within the next month. They plan to get themselves familiar on the spot with the objective situations in relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol so that to determine further joint measures. In addition, as Moldovan diplomatic sources report, Deputy Chairperson of the Foreign Policy Committee of the German Bundestag Daniela de Ridder who also combines the functions of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly's Special Representative for Eastern Europe, plans to pay an official visit to Chisinau in the near future. The main purpose of the visit is to discuss the current situation around the Transdniestrian problem. Over the past year and a half, it seemed to experts that the Transdniestrian settlement was gradually falling out of the Eastern European region’s topical agenda and was to remain in the waiting mode at least until the moment a thorough political reset in Chisinau takes place. However, with all the focus on the Ukrainian crisis, a series of recent events, there’s a string of visits and behind-the-scenes meetings. Even if does not yet make it possible to put together a sufficiently detailed picture of what is happening, it nevertheless, allows us determine the movement’s causes and its direction. Most of the indicators show it was exactly Moscow’s efforts to set in motion the jammed Transdniestrian settlement’s pinions. For some subjective reasons, it saw the need to here and now use the topic of relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol and thus, at least provoke all other involved players to give a reaction to. Largely because of Moscow's unpredictable and even provocative to some extent actions, the regional space begun sparkling with new colors forcing the West to oppose such scenarios implementation.