Expert: The Regional Situation around Moldova Is Heating Up

Vladimir ROTAR The Black Sea region is gradually growing into Europe's new "powder keg". Moldova will hardly be able to stay away from militarization processes taking place in the region While the international situation is consistently deteriorating, a new Cold War between Russia and the West seems inevitable. The parties do not even try to imitate a reset in relations, but rather openly and publicly identify each other as "opponents". The recent Russian-Czech and Russian-Bulgarian scandals only highlight that the next round of geopolitical confrontation is imminent. No wonder, against this background the eastern flank is becoming a priority for NATO, the main structure to contain Russia, especially considering the recent events involving Ukraine. The Black Sea region is more and more reinforced: large-scale infrastructure projects are being implemented, including those aimed at increasing the military mobility of the North Atlantic Alliance countries and their capacities to quickly switch forces to a potential battleground. NATO's land, air and sea military presence is vigorously scaled up. In addition, efforts are being made to accelerate the new members' integration into the alliance. Thus, the June NATO summit will address a roadmap for Ukraine's accession whose Euro-Atlantic aspirations are beyond doubt to date. Various operational and tactical scenarios are also practiced during the large-scale military exercises. This year, more than 20 major "war games" alone are planned. With that said, Romania stands out with its increasing role as one of the main footholds for the NATO forces deployment. Thus, for the first time our neighbor hosted the largest exercises called Defender-Europe 2021 in the capacity of one of the key logistics hubs, associated with the American contingents redeployment to Europe. They involve 26 countries, tens of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of units of military equipment. During the training events, soldiers were landed in the ports of Romania and Bulgaria as part of the legend of the enemy attack. The training events will go far beyond the above exercises: a whole series of drills is expected on Romanian territory in May-June. Noble Jump II 21 will test the deployment speed of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) units and Joint NATO Forces. Steadfast Defender21 imply strengthening of the VJTF units by deploying troops across the Atlantic and throughout Europe, with a focus on containment operations in Southeastern Europe. Saber Guardian 21 is designed to improve the military units' preparedness for collective defense. Along with this, the degree and militancy of Bucharest's rhetoric against the Russian Federation is growing. For example, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said that "the countries of NATO's eastern flank should consolidate their efforts to contain Russian aggression." "As allies in the NATO's east, we must consolidate efforts to deter and defend the Alliance. Recently, we have witnessed the development of Russia's military potential in our close neighborhood - the Black Sea, in Ukraine and around it - which sparks our concern," Iohannis said. A slightly provocative statement by the Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu about the Black Sea as a "NATO's lake" hasn't gone unnoticed either. Romania hosted a summit of the NATO's eastern flank member countries (the so-called "Bucharest Nine") on Monday. The level of the event was underscored by US President Joseph Biden's attendance via video link. Following the meeting of the heads of state, an official statement was adopted condemning Russia's actions to deploy troops near the border with Ukraine and expressing position on the events in Belarus, as well as the demand for clear prospects for new members to join NATO, primarily Ukraine and Georgia. Undoubtedly, processes outside Moldova cause deep concern. One might think that they have little to do with formally neutral Moldova but, unfortunately that is not the case. Firstly, Moldovan contingents regularly participate in the Euro-Atlantic bloc's drills - for example, in the already mentioned Defender-Europe 2021. Secondly, the draft Moldova-NATO Individual Partnership Plan for 2021-2023 is still in standby mode. As I have already noted once, this is a complex document that prescribes a whole range of obligations for the republic, in most areas of public life at once, from economy to justice. Of course, a major emphasis is put on the defense and security sectors. Worth recalling is Karen Bonaby' appointment as US expert adviser to the reform department of the Moldovan Defense Ministry. Another curious fact is Moldova's increasing purchases of weapons and military equipment. Last year, imports of this category of goods grew by 17 percent, even despite the pandemic, and the total of more than $ 6 million was spent on these purposes over just two years. Moldova's Euro-Atlantic integration has somewhat stalled at the moment. Due to the ongoing internal political turmoil, Chisinau simply has no time for it. But there is no doubt that after the mess is over and a solid power structure is formed, they will manage to catch up. The Black Sea region looks more and more like a future theater of military operations, and it will be difficult for Moldova to stay away from the processes taking place in the region.