US Ambassador to Moldova Dereck Hogan partially revealed Washington's plans to escalate the situation around the left-bank territories of Moldova, RTA expert Simon ALBU believes
Election campaign is a time of grand speeches, mostly of double- or even triple-meaning, especially when voiced by our international friends. Yesterday, two landmark statements were made at once, both with regards to the Transdniestrian settlement which has recently faded into the background. And while Russian President Vladimir Putin's words about the need to solve the conflict based on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova with a special “reliably guaranteed” status for Transdniestria were not new, the speech by the US Ambassador Dereck Hogan has caused a certain commotion.
Discarding the usual politeness about the steps towards each other, a good climate for a dialogue and other surface words that international observers use to frame the negotiation process, Hogan quite frankly stated that the left bank should be under Chisinau's full administrative control, which requires the right bank to develop a unified reintegration strategy. Overtures to Maia Sandu were made in this respect by noting that the diplomat saw at least an attempt to find such a consensus when she was prime minister.
The Ambassador's statements are resonant for a variety of reasons. The fact that the United States supports the territorial integrity of our country is good. On the other hand, it is risky to act impudently in such a complex issue, and Chisinau knows this best of all. Moreover, reintegration is in a semi-faint state right now. As you can see, contacts within the framework of the negotiation process are practically frozen. Not a single issue is being solved. Tiraspol uses all the available forums to complain endlessly about the sanctions and restrictions that the Moldovan side is allegedly imposing. The authorities in the region are now especially pressing hard on the Transdniestrian imports and transport to be blocked from July 1 and September 1 respectively, while voicing threats to retaliate.
At the same time, many experts believe that the current extreme cooling of Tiraspol-Chisinau relations is due to at least the direct assistance, if not dictation, of the United States. Such views have their rationale. Needless to say how great the US influence in Moldovan affairs is. Unlike the European representative, Hogan has proved to be an active and effective manager of political processes in the country. The omnipotent ambassador is respected not only by the right, which is quite natural, but also by the left forces who preferred not to anger Washington and its vicegerent ambassador in Moldova before the elections.
Therefore, assuming that the settlement of the Transdniestrian problem, which is so important for the United States, as Hogan himself claims, is completely left to the mercy of local officials is at least naïve.
It turns out that Washington is deliberately pushing Chisinau to aggravate relations with Tiraspol, and, consequently, with Moscow, which is unlikely to tolerate a unilateral change in the status quo with regard to the separatist region. This can only mean that a potentially conflict scenario is already in place, and now we are observing its preparatory stage with a view to the absolutely loyal ruling coalition to be formed after the elections. As such, it will act in the future as a conduit for any ideas and decisions born in the bowels of the American administration.
Recently, my fellow colleagues speculated on possible points of view in the American establishment about how exactly one can take an advantage of the Transdniestrian conflict and the Russian military contingent deployed in its zone. The expert considered actions against the contingent a radical scenario, which I am inclined to disagree with. Reality dictates its own rules, processes are accelerating, and everything that was previously unthinkable, as according to the Overton window, is transferred to the category of possible or even desirable.
It seems that activities to completely oust Russia's residual influence from our country will be initiated after the parliamentary elections: following the Ukraine's example, friendly political forces will be removed through bans or criminal prosecution, Russian TV channels will be closed, bilateral relations will be curtailed. And in the final act of this drama, the Russian military and peacekeepers will be driven out the territory of Moldova - for example, with the help of a provocation which will force the Kremlin to react in a challenging context of no direct access to its group or imminent new sanctions.
The above forecast is also confirmed by the fact that the United States is now mobilizing states with unresolved conflicts and damaged relations with Moscow, primarily Georgia and Ukraine, as part of a geopolitical battle with Russia. The new White House administration, unlike its predecessors, is showing a remarkable interest in the Eastern European region which is regularly visited by the Secretary of State who hands out instructions and marches orders. The major focus of the American attention is now on Kiev where statements are made as to the US sharp increase in military-technical assistance and the "unprecedented intensity" of contacts between the two countries.
Stepping up the mutual integration of the post-Soviet states under the North Atlantic banners, like the recently created "Associative Trio" consisting of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, can also be considered a link in a chain.
The recent events around Donbass, where the hot phase of the conflict almost began again, and Transdniestria cause anxiety and a persistent feeling that someone has decided to play with two hot spots pursuing own geopolitical interests. The conflict between the two powers seems to be approaching a boiling point, and any consensus, even situational, such as the one achieved in Moldova in 2019, is now out of the question.
Furthermore, the Western partners who realize the significance of the moment no longer even try to adhere to the rules of decency, and in fact give directives to the Moldovan authorities. This hasn't gone unnoticed by the Kremlin who through the mouth of the Russian Foreign Ministry
regularly draws attention to the EU and the United States' interference in internal affairs of Moldova. That's actually not surprising - the time of diplomacy and compromise is coming to end, and Washington probably thinks that only one geopolitical actor should stay in Moldova.