Expert: The Diaspora Factor Role in the Moldovan Elections Will Only Increase

Sergiu CEBAN The continuing depopulation dynamics in the republic predetermines the almost unlimited growth of the foreign electoral basket potential. As a result, the final outcome of electoral cycles in Moldova will be increasingly dependent on political sentiments in the diaspora. The second round of the presidential elections had a record participation rate of the Moldovan diaspora in voting, which amounted to about 16% of the total number of citizens who came to the polls. This, in fact, predetermined more than a confident victory for Maia Sandu. For the first time ever, foreign voters were so vocal in their fundamental intention to participate in the political life of the country, and not on the sidelines. Such electoral consolidation of compatriots, strong enough to predetermine the election results, forced Moldovan politicians to take a different view on the diaspora factor and also take it into account when planning further election campaigns. Sociologists suggest that a sharp increase in voting abroad has occurred in the past five years. This is especially true for the polls in Western countries, as evidenced by the corresponding figures and the political preferences of our fellow citizens. For example, if we draw parallels with the presidential elections in 2016 and in 2020, then in the first case, about 120 thousand citizens voted for Sandu in the second round, but already in 2020 the current presidential team managed to practically double this figure and persuade up to 245 thousand people to go to the polls abroad. Based on the National Bureau of Statistics data, one of the reasons for the growth of such a politically active and non-indifferent diaspora is the annual outflow of young able-bodied citizens (about 30-35 thousand per year) for permanent residence, mainly in the EU countries. They form the backbone of those voting in foreign polling stations. In 2020, an additional motivating factor that pushed the Moldovan voter to line up in long queues at the polling stations, as you know, was the careless statement of Igor Dodon about the so-called "parallel electorate". This very statement is likely to resonate also during the voting in the upcoming early parliamentary elections. The fact that the number of our compatriots abroad is steadily growing is evidenced by a record volume of foreign remittances to Moldova in the first four months of this year, coming mainly from Western countries, which reached 513 million US dollars. This is 39% more than in the same period last year, and 33% when compared with the average over the past decade. Given the continuing depopulation dynamics in the republic, the potential of the foreign electoral basket is anticipated to increase, and the final election result will increasingly depend on the political sentiments in the diaspora. In the 2019 parliamentary elections foreign votes predetermined only four deputy mandates, today, however, given the current increased activity, there is every reason to expect that the upcoming elections will result in the number of diaspora votes equivalent to10-15 mandates. A preliminary registration on Moldova's CEC website serves an indicator of high electoral inclusiveness of Moldovan citizens abroad. If the number of those registered in advance before the presidential elections was about 60 thousand people, then today more than 90 thousand of our compatriots have already applied for the upcoming parliamentary elections. Moreover, they can show even greater electoral mobility in comparison with last December given a decrease in epidemiological risks and the summer season. The growing interest and, as a consequence, an increased involvement of the diaspora voter in the current domestic agenda of the country is not an accidental socio-political phenomenon at all, as some researchers try to portray it. This is the result of a targeted multi-year work with the diaspora carried out by Moldovan politicians, including Maia Sandu personally, with the support of non-governmental organizations over the past 10 years. The leftist parties seem to underestimate the diaspora factor even today. But practice shows that the foreign Moldovan diaspora consolidation contributes significantly to the formation of political power in our country. One of the intrigues to be resolved on July 11 will be the answer to the question: will the number of foreign voters increase in comparison with last year's elections? The foreign voting can be unpredictable and can disrupt the harmony of any sociological and policy forecasts. Indeed, there are objective reasons why they cannot measure the preferences of citizens living abroad and clearly predict their impact on the future pre-election situation in Chisinau. On the whole, the current tendencies show that the most comfortable conditions for the Moldovan diaspora to vote will be created in European countries through the efforts of the Western "development partners". In addition, such a consolidation and activity of the diaspora is an additional tool for maintaining the pro-Western course of Moldova's development and a stable electoral source for pro-European parties and their leaders. Whether this approach should be regarded as a form of external meddling in Moldova's affairs is quite interesting question. Despite the fact that the turnout during parliamentary campaigns in Moldova is traditionally lower, the ongoing marking of the electoral field suggests that this particular pre-election race will be marked by much higher emotional intensity. The major political nerve of the current election campaign is built around the concept of a possible revenge in the country by pro-Western forces. Relatively speaking, July 11 is going to become a kind of "third round of the presidential elections". For this reason, some experts are inclined to believe that the diaspora can set new thresholds for voting in foreign polling stations, which can amount to at least 20% of the total number of voters in the elections.