The Wind of Global Changes: Is a Geopolitical Compromise Possible in the Post-Soviet Region?

Sergiu CEBAN The G7 and NATO summits, as well as the meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia, reflect the search for methods of global leadership by the Euro-Atlantic community in the framework of the unwinding confrontation with China. One of them could be improving relations with Moscow and reaching compromises on the post-Soviet perimeter, including Moldova and Ukraine. The current June and, in particular, this week are expected to be one of the most eventful in terms of international events. Experts are following with great attention several important events and meetings, the results of which can have a decisive influence on the formation as of the international agenda, as of settlement lines for key problems of both global and regional scale. The main event is to become the first international tour of the American President Joseph Biden in Europe. In this regard, the trip of the US leader is more than symbolic, since it reflects the main priority of the current White House administration - strengthening Euro-Atlantic unity with Europe, where the largest number of US strategic allies are concentrated. Biden's visit schedule is more than stressful and includes participation in the G7 and the leaders of NATO member states summits. Biden will conclude his European voyage with a conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. After a specific period of Donald Trump's presidency, Washington is returning to its traditional European policy and is in every way signaling the elites of the old world about the desire not only to preserve, but also to significantly strengthen Euro-Atlantic solidarity. And the joint communiqué of the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7), which contains positions on the essence of key international problems, is also a sure sign that the Western world retains its claim to planetary leadership. At the same time, the NATO summit promises to be difficult. The main goal of the organizers is to at least demonstrate to the world the alliance’s strength. But experts, including Western ones, regularly express the opinion that the defensive alliance is increasingly at odds with the realities of our time and does not meet the tasks that Washington sets itself. To a certain extent, this understanding is also present within the North Atlantic bloc itself. Therefore, the main leaders of the union are in an active search for new goals and ideas, in other words, a common threat that everyone understands and such, one must understand, China can become. Following the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance in Geneva, an official communication between the presidents of the United States and Russia will take place. The expectations from this meeting in the expert community are the most cautious and devoid of any even the most pragmatic optimism. Despite the critical state of bilateral relations, it is obvious that the two countries within need elementary orderliness and an understandable structure even in the face of confrontation. There is a feeling that Washington and Moscow do still realize that the two major nuclear powers cannot afford a regime of endless escalation. After all, the absence of at least minimal predictability deprives the modern world, which is already in an extremely troubled situation, of strategic stability in principle. The current trends that are being associated with the active destruction of the world order that emerged in the 1990s are pushing Washington and Brussels to look for effective ways aimed at maintaining and strengthening the role of the Euro-Atlantic community in the coming decades. In this sense, the series of past and forthcoming meetings is not at all accidental - you need to determine your vision for the next decade. And either it will be building a new structure of relations - relatively speaking, a "new world order" - or another campaign to the East towards autocratic rivals, China and Russia. Despite the fact that China and Russia are increasingly viewed by Western strategists in one bundle, nevertheless, Beijing is of key importance to the United States. If Moscow is primarily a security issue, then China is an existential challenge for American leadership in the world. The fact that the meeting with Putin got precisely included in the European tour of the head of the White House gives reason to assume that Russia, along with Europe, is also one way or another returning to Washington's agenda. Apparently, Moscow will be viewed as a key security factor on the continent, especially in the post-Soviet space. The meetings preceding the conversation with the Kremlin leader look like a kind of process of assembling a "big mandate" to reach agreements in principle with the Russian president. On the eve of Biden's visit, his signal article was published in the American press, which, like the final communique of the G7, contains hints that the West does not want confrontation with Moscow, but is ready to react to the sharp movements of the Kremlin in the harshest way. This suggests that Washington needs Russia outside the Chinese agenda, so the United States may be ready for a conditional compromise on the post-Soviet perimeter. If it can be agreed at least in general terms during the Biden – Putin meeting, then this will obviously be of great importance for the Black Sea region and territorial conflicts on its territory. Perhaps, in this scenario, Ukraine and Moldova will no longer be viewed as an ultimatum as a means of restraining Moscow, which could open the door to at least the situational agreements of the two powers on these countries. As well known, the pre-election battle of key political groups, one way or another, affiliated with different geopolitical poles, is coming to a climax in Moldova. At the same time, the electoral layouts show that there is a non-theoretical possibility that none of them will have the resources (that is, a sufficient number of deputy mandates) to single-handedly form a new ruling coalition and government institutions. Like two years ago, the republic's political class may need a significant external impetus to overcome the post-election political crisis typical of our country. If such events development, the first sign of a compromise between Moscow and Washington in our political clearing will be the search for points of convergence between antagonistic participants in the electoral race (instead of further tough confrontation) and the creation of a broad coalition of “pro-Western” and “pro-Russian” parties on the model of 2019 ... Another signal moment will be the convergence of the positions of the members of such a union regarding the country's reintegration and its orientation towards the process of settling the Transdniestrian conflict. Thus, what exactly will (not) Biden and Putin agree on is to become clear already during Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington, as well as from the coalition configuration following the parliamentary elections in Moldova.