The main participants in the electoral race have reached the limits of increasing the number of supporters.
Vladimir ROTAR, RTA:
The number of participants in the electoral race in Moldova will soon exceed two dozen. Meanwhile, opinion polls suggest that having only one of them will be enough to form a ruling coalition. We are talking about the pro-presidential party Action and Solidarity, of course which is seemingly to win more than fifty mandates following the July 11 vote.
It is curious that PAS itself does not share such optimistic assessments and does not believe in a hypothetical one-man majority. Moreover, representatives of the party call such sociological research manipulation and a means of "calming" their supporters. Perhaps these arguments have their reasons. Obviously, at the current stage, none of the election participants can feel completely safe in terms of the final result. Therefore, they are all trying to strengthen their own positions on the eve of the elections by any means.
At the same time, the main electoral competitors do not have many opportunities to significantly “grow in votes”. Both the PAS and the bloc of communists and socialists have a more or less stable core of supporters, but its further expansion is hindered by the anti-rating of both the formations themselves and their formal and informal leaders. Uncertain voters, who, according to some sources, make up about a quarter of the total, are likely to opt for alternative political projects, or ignore the vote altogether.
Thus, today the key participants in the race are engaged not so much in agitation and propaganda of their own ideas, as in the task of cutting off competitors from their electorate to the maximum. Therefore, instead of a clash on the basis of election programs or, which is even more usual, geopolitical vectors, we have continued observing over the past weeks a real war around the Central Election Commission.
Three "fronts" can be distinguished in this war. Chief among them is diaspora voting in Western countries. The CEC's decision not to increase the number of polling stations there caused a real storm of indignation in the camp of the pro-European forces, which was reflected in angry comments, numerous protests and rebukes from the head of state and Western diplomats. Even its subsequent adjustment, which provided for the creation of seven more voting points, did not help.
This painful reaction is understandable. As you know, the large-scale involvement of the diaspora in the Moldovan electoral processes began in the 2010s with the aim of rapidly and powerfully increasing the “fodder base” of pro-Western political forces and providing them with a decisive advantage in any national elections. This was implemented through amendments to the electoral code, which allowed the opening of polling stations outside the diplomatic institutions of the republic. Since then, the proportion of votes of our fellow citizens abroad has grown steadily, reaching a maximum in the 2020 presidential elections and reaching as much as 16 percent.
It was planned to develop the success even further this year. The numbers of preliminary applications for voting on July 11 testified that more than 300 thousand of our compatriots living abroad could come to the ballot boxes - and the overwhelming majority of them would certainly give preference to PAS or the DA platform and unionist forces. Thus, opening almost fifty plots less than planned which is 146 instead of 190 proposed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is, in fact, many thousands of votes lost by the pro-Western forces.
Against this background, the pro-European opposition was particularly outraged by the decision of the CEC to create additional polling stations for voters on the left bank. Moreover, in the territories not controlled by Chisinau. According to official data, several hundred thousand citizens of Moldova live in the region, but usually only a small part of them were able to mobilize for the elections, including due to problems with logistics. The polling stations in Korjevo and Bendery, obviously, will significantly increase the number of voters. This step of the CEC can be interpreted in favor of the bloc of communists and socialists, who will certainly collect the bulk of the Transdniestrian votes. The right-wingers are now trying to challenge this decision in the Appeals Chamber, and if they fail, they will probably try to resort to the experience of last year and, if possible, limit access to sites for residents of the region.
Another important point is the voting of Moldovan labor migrants in Russia. This is another solid electoral resource in the form of 200-250 thousand potential votes for the "pro-Moldovan" forces, but it has not yet been realized. For example, only 14 thousand citizens of Moldova in the Russian Federation took part in the second round of the last presidential elections. So far, nothing indicates that the situation here can change dramatically. Moreover, the CEC recently revised the structure of polling stations in Russia, closing polling stations in six Russian cities at once and transferring them to Moscow and the Moscow region. On the one hand, their total number has not changed, on the other hand, the geography of voting for “Russian Moldovans” has narrowed even more.
On the whole, a very original situation is emerging, when the participation in elections of Moldovan citizens outside its borders for all interested forces becomes much more important than the electoral process directly within the country. Colleagues have already noted that the diaspora factor is acquiring the character of a “golden share” that determines the political fate of the country - as it was originally intended. At the same time, as we can see, both the pro-Western and the “pro-Moldavian” forces have their trump cards in this regard, but it should be admitted that they are much more solid on the right.
There is no doubt that the war for polling stations will continue until the very date of voting, and pressure on the CEC will only grow in order to open the maximum possible number of polling stations abroad. If the Commission can still be persuaded to this decision, it will be possible to admit that the balance of power will finally swing towards the PAS and its potential allies in the future parliament. After all, competitors will have almost nothing to cover the hundreds of thousands of votes that will come from abroad.