Will a Broad Coalition in Parliament Be a Salvation for Moldova?

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The impasse which is likely to develop in the parliament after July 11 may be overcome if the right and left forces build a broad coalition between under the careful patronage of Moldova's international partners The CEC has completed the electoral competitors registration (23 in total) and already presented a sample ballot paper. Interestingly, the election campaign is relatively calm so far, with periodic attacks and counterattacks of its key participants. Most likely, reciprocal information shots at this stage suit its major favorites quite well. Perhaps, this is just a "probing" behind which all efforts are being accumulated to deliver decisive blows at the end of the election campaign. So, it is possible that an avalanche of compromising evidence will descend a week before the vote. While the issue of opening polling stations for Transdniestrian voters seems to be closed, the intrigue around foreign polling stations retains. Judging by yesterday's response from the Supreme Court of Justice, which upheld the verdict of the Chisinau Court of Appeals, the CEC will have to open about 190 stations for diaspora voting. Thus, the Commission's room for maneuver has significantly narrowed, including after US Ambassador Dereck Hogan paid another urgent visit, and now it has to make a final decision. If the CEC is about to go all the way, an unprecedented situation might emerge when, under various pretexts, most of the Commission members will resign in the midst of the election campaign and thereby practically block the election organization process. The periodically published sociological polls do not inspire much confidence, since they give preference to either the left or the right political forces, depending on the client who orders a survey. In particular, one of the last pre-election surveys conducted by the WatchDog organization confirms that Action and Solidarity and the Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists will definitely enter the future parliament, predicting 49.8% of the vote for the first and 28% for the latter. Since the majority of voters tend to decide on their choice in the last week or even days, the polls to appear at the finish line will be most representative. Experts believe that the main mistake of sociologists and political strategists of the PAS party close to the head of state is an attempt to extrapolate the results of the second round of the presidential race onto the results of the political formation in the upcoming elections. Obviously, those 57% of votes for Maia Sandu were given by supporters of various forces and political leaders, therefore the “December percentage” clearly does not reflect the real PAS rating. In addition, the massive participation of pro-European and pro-Romanian parties will most likely take away votes from the main leader of this election campaign. The second-line pre-election participants fighting for their right to get into the future legislative body of the country are those who can hardly be attributed to any doctrinal camp. We are talking about the Renato Usatii bloc, the Sor and Civil Congress parties. It seems that this isolated group will try to absorb voters from various electoral niches, especially the votes of protest-minded citizens whose number is steadily growing in all segments of the country's internal political spectrum, given the ongoing mess in the state. According to analysts, Renato Usatii has the greatest chances of taking a confident percentage. Meanwhile, the option of the Usatii-Sandu coalition, as anticipated as it is, looks no less risky than collaboration with communists and socialists. Unlike most party projects that are seeking their place on one flank or another, Renato Usatii's electorate is less stable and specific in its (outwardly) political preferences, moreover, its main feature is staying in opposition to any government. And a possible entry into the ruling coalition will inevitably lead to the ratings drop of the Renato Usatii bloc, without a chance of its compensation at the expense of pro-Western voters. In fact, the only promising option for the mayor of Balti to develop his political career is, oddly enough, to shift to the left flank and win over the PCRM and PSRM's electorate who are slowly losing their popularity. Therefore, it will be very interesting to watch how Usatii will use his minority, yet crucial in many respects, stake in the future parliament. The best scenario for Dodon's group would be if only Sor party entered the parliament, apart from PAS and EBCS. In fact, this is the scenario that most of the PSRM polls insist on. Thus, the pro-European formation will be forced to make contact with the communist-socialist bloc, for which the latter is quite ready, judging by public statements. Any form of cooperation between the main right-wingers and the socialists-communists, and even more so the joint creation of a majority in parliament, seems almost impossible at the moment, especially given the high degree of mutual hostility. On the other hand, observers voiced exactly the same thing in 2019. In general, the idea of ​​such a majority coalition under the patronage of Berlin and Moscow is more and more often proposed to the country's expert community. It would help reduce the excessive domestic tensions, which is the result of the two election campaigns, and provide stability, at least temporarily, necessary to restart reforms and open channels for foreign financial assistance. In addition, such a coalition synthesis is necessary to ensure the stability and self-discipline of the pro-European camp itself, which, in the event of a monopoly in power, may suffer the fate of the Ukrainian “Servant of the People”. The latter, as is seen, has lost its mobility and internal stability in the course of its sole rule, and started disintegrating into intra-factional interest groups. Certainly, it is possible that the parties that will get into the future parliament might build another “coalition of profound mistrust” under external pressure, but will clash in a few months forcing the country again to the next early elections. However, initiators of a new electoral circle will unlikely go unpunished - in this case, a radical reaction can be expected both from international partners and from the voter, who can make the most unpredictable decisions to punish the Moldovan elites.