Who Will Make a Decisive Move in Moldova's Electoral Campaign?

Vladimir ROTAR

Amid a rather boring electoral race, the balance of power among its key participants was not radically changed, and a fragile parity was established putting the republic's further internal political stability in jeopardy. Will anyone make a decisive move on the Moldovan electoral board?

Yesterday, a reputable Barometer of Public Opinion published the recent sociological survey results, devoted inter alia to the Sunday voting. They were eagerly expected: many experts consider the BPO data to be the least biased and therefore the closest to the real situation, especially since elections are approaching. So, according to the BPO report, three formations with a high probability enter parliament: Action and Solidarity, the Communists and Socialists bloc (BoCS) and the SOR party. The Renato Usatii bloc and the Dignity and Truth Platform are somewhere not far from the electoral threshold. The parties Democracy at Home, PDM and Alliance for the Unification of Romanians are nearing a 2% rating. The rest of the election participants do not gain even one percent. It is interesting that if we compare the results of the current poll with a similar one conducted by the Barometer six months ago, it will turn out that the electoral indicators have not changed significantly since that time. Practically all political forces have demonstrated more or less the same result as in February. The only significant metamorphosis is at the very top of the list. Thus, based on the data provided, a noticeable decrease in the PAS rating and a proportionally stronger positions of the BoCS can be seen. The latter, probably, can hardly be a surprise. Fleur from the confident victory of Maia Sandu as a pro-European party representative in the presidential elections has naturally faded away over time. Besides, the president and her entourage, despite all their efforts, could not avoid controversial situations and ambiguous decisions. Nevertheless, the electoral losses are not so huge, and the party's position was stabilized based on good rates, which still give the reason to expect a sole majority in the future parliament. Of no surprise are also a bit stronger positions of the main rival of the PAS. Such changes are mainly due to the consolidation processes on the left flank resulting in the formation of a single bloc of socialists and communists. Certainly, the effect of this synergy could have been more striking, but even without that, the maneuver should be recognized as successful for the PSRM, and especially for the PCRM. The latter could otherwise hardly count on getting into the main legislative body of the country. The Shor party, with its headquarters in Orhei, firmly holds its lines, despite the odiousness of its leader and a new round of corruption scandals around his personality. As for Renato Usatii, by nominating a bloc instead of a party, he perhaps, made a tactical mistake. Now, the mayor of Balti, who was obviously making his decision based on the December elections outcome, will have to worry when getting reports after the July 11 vote. The main conclusion that can be drawn from the current status quo is that the pre-election race, which actually lasted this whole year, did not fundamentally change the voters' mood. As they say, everyone remained of the same mind, and there are objective reasons for this. Perhaps, the main reason is that the campaign was boring and had an extremely negative agenda. Constant statements about foreign interference, scandals around diaspora polling stations, mutual accusations of corruption and lack of professionalism created a real electoral swamp, which has wiped away both the election promises of the participants and the timid attempts of single forces, such as the Civil Congress, to initiate a meaningful discussion about the country's development program. None of the election participants has demonstrated any bright performances and steps, which only emphasized the international partners' activity who literally dragged their protégés "by the ears". A striking example is the tour of the American ambassador across the key public (and not only) agencies, as well as the news on allocating a generous 600-million-dollar aid from the European Union which so successfully "coincided" with the election campaign. As a result, a situation of fragile balance has developed, which puts further internal political stability of the republic in jeopardy. Either the diaspora voting or the still undecided voters, whose percentage is quite large, will be able to turn the tide. However, given the high distrust among the people to Moldova's electoral institution and political parties, there is no guarantee that the "doubters" will go to the ballot boxes on Sunday at all. Considering that there are only a few days left before the elections, a lot will depend on the final chords of the campaign performed by its key participants. The Bloc of Communists and Socialists seems to have trump cards up its sleeve still. A couple of days ago, an article appeared on the New Europe foreign portal about the financing of the PAS election campaign by the EU and the United States in the amount of 56 million euros. The money were allegedly used to bribe local authorities, print campaign materials, pay for media services, mass events, etc. The pro-presidential party claimed that the article was planted by the PSRM and hastened to refute all accusations. But the bad taste still lingers, as they say. More importantly, the left-wing bloc invited the PAS to debate at the Palace of the Republic. This is a very positive move, which can allow representatives of the two parties to talk publicly and (I would like to believe) in a civilized manner about the problems of greatest concern to citizens - for the first time in the entire campaign. The right-wingers are still "analyzing" that proposal, but everyone understands that the refusal will put them in a disadvantageous position and will give the BoCS a reason to further accuse opponents of cowardice and lack of strategic decisions for Moldova. If PAS agrees and the debates do take place, it is possible that their results will tip the scales towards one or another direction. If not, further steps should be expected (first of all from the left, who are "lagging behind"), that can significantly change the final indicators of the campaign participants at the finish line.