What Is the Future of Russian-Moldovan Relations after the Elections?

Sergiu CEBAN

One of the most challenging tasks for the new Moldovan government will be to match the pro-European vector of the country's development, which actually has no alternative, with Russia's continuing major role in regional and international affairs.

Despite the fact that the central authorities haven't been formed yet, the ruling party is gradually starting its activities in the internal policy outlining the overall working plans. In particular, PAS leaders are sending their first foreign policy messages to Moldova's main foreign policy partners. Nevertheless, the main agenda-maker is still Maia Sandu who last week held a meeting with the diplomatic corps and drew general lines of the country's foreign policy for the next few years. According to the presented concept, the foreign policy of our country should be predictable, consistent and citizen-oriented in order to promote a safe and peaceful regional space which includes Moldova. As known, Moscow's factor in relation to Moldova's both internal and external stance remains quite influential. Therefore, it would be very self-confident to believe that the future prospects of our state in no way depend on how exactly Russian-Moldovan relations will develop in the near future. Despite the fact that the parliamentary election results were rather painful for the Kremlin, the parties' official exchanges were fairly consistent. For example, the Russian Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed Moscow's readiness to develop multifaceted cooperation with the new parliament and government of Moldova. In turn, the PAS chairman Igor Grosu said that Chisinau is seeking to build correct, pragmatic and predictable relations, since a significant number of Moldovan compatriots live in the Russian Federation. Along with this, according to the leader of the pro-presidential party, there is a need to focus on aligning the economic relations between the two countries and to pay special attention to the Transdniestrian settlement, in which Moscow plays an important role. It is no secret that for a long time relations between the two countries have been extremely complex and contradictory. A grave mutual mistrust, the frequent use of various pressure instruments, the pro-Western orientation of most Moldovan elites and society triggered a protracted stagnation in communication between Chisinau and Moscow. Whatever the outcome of the early elections, which, of course, can provoke another phase of cooling, the new government will one way or another be faced with the task to get the Moldovan-Russian relations out of a permanent crises spiral and try to build a qualitatively different cooperation format. One of the most sensitive issues for Moldovan politicians and diplomats will possibly be to match the pro-European vector of our country's development, which has actually no alternatives, with Russia's continuing weighty role in regional and international affairs. Therefore, only a pragmatic and realistic approach in current circumstances will help build a new format of practical cooperation between the two countries. It is obvious that the risk of curtailing the political dialogue and increasing tension in communication with Moscow is quite high, especially after the pro-Russian political formations have actually remained outside the political process and are unlikely to significantly influence the parliamentary mono-majority. Therefore, the primary political task is to establish and support the functionality of the highest-level interaction channel, which was resumed in 2017 after a long pause. An access to the Kremlin's top political leadership is a kind of a guarantee that the existing range of bilateral problems won't be frozen by Moscow awaiting "better times". Since 2014, there has been a steady decline in economic relations between the two countries. Russia responded to the Association Agreement between Moldova and the European Union not only declaratively: economic influence tools were applied, which reduced the mutual trade turnover to extremely low levels. The 2016 efforts by the Moldovan authorities to develop a roadmap to restore trade relations failed. Apparently, the new government will have to revisit those ideas in some way. Otherwise, traditional eastern markets will have to be forgotten over time, with the need to reorient the economy exclusively to the European consumer, which will undoubtedly be a shock for a certain segment of Moldovan producers. Interaction in the fuel and energy sector retains its importance. The main topic in this industry is the natural gas supply, since the energy logistics around our country is dynamically changing and bears not only additional options, but also grave risks. The new authorities are well aware of that, which can be seen from Igor Grosu's statements about the need to start early discussions with the Russian side regarding a new gas contract to expire in September. No less important is the issue of the Third Energy Package implementation by Moldova, which directly affects the interests of Russian energy corporations both in terms of gas supplies and electricity production. Back to the key points of Maia Sandu's foreign policy program on building a stable regional security system, we can say with confidence that this objective will perhaps become one of the most difficult, both in terms of implementation and within a dialogue with Moscow. Indeed, in 2019, during Maia Sandu's government, the Russian leadership unambiguously signaled its willingness to contribute to this issue, which is inextricably linked to the Transdniestrian settlement prospects. To what extent this approach is relevant in the present-day circumstances will become clear during the first official visit of the Moldovan delegation to Russia. Today, one of Russia's flagship newswires published an interview with Maia Sandu, which is nothing more than an agenda summary and the principled willingness to start bilateral preparations for the Moldovan President's visit to Moscow. A possible response from Russia's leadership official representatives will indicate whether there are prospects for such a meeting. In any case, the two states need to start a meaningful and responsible dialogue, and build stable and predictable relations based on the changes in modern realities, as well as the existing regional and international context.