Moldova. Restarting a "Success Story"

Anton SHVEC

Batumi meeting of the presidents of the so-called Associated Trio has become another significant event for Maia Sandu and her political project in terms of image and international positioning. Moldova is again seeking to be a "success story" for the EU - the most diligent member state of the Eastern Partnership

The Eastern Partnership project has been in a long-standing crisis due to the negative impact of numerous interrelated factors. Institutionally, the interest of several states participating in the program from its very start in 2009 remained superficial and utilitarian and never assumed the high-quality integration. For example, Azerbaijan is seeking rapprochement with Turkey which provides the main assistance in implementing Baku's ambitions in the Karabakh issue. Armenia is inclined to establish and maintain bilateral diplomatic ties with separate states and is also not ready to quarrel with Russia and the CSTO, which are the key guarantors of its security at the current historical stage. Alexander Lukashenko has traditionally used the Eastern Partnership for foreign policy maneuvering and gaining economic preferences in relations with Russia and the EU countries. At the end of June this year, in response to sanctions from the EU, Belarus suspended its participation in the Eastern Partnership, implementation of the readmission agreement (and generally stopped its assistance in blocking migration flows to the Baltic countries and Poland) and recalled its ambassador from Brussels. Notably, until quite recently Moldova itself has totally fallen short of the values ​​promoted by the program, since it was considered by the Western community as a "captured state" in which all power institutions were controlled by the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc. As a result, the project was organizationally creaking around the seams, although it produced a number of achievements designed to separate the participating countries from the once united national economic, industrial and cultural space of the former USSR. In particular, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia signed an association agreement with the EU, expressed their readiness to fulfill the requirements of the EU's Third Energy Package on their territory, were granted a visa-free travel to the European Union and other assistance. However, ideologically, the Eastern Partnership is still not charged with appropriate content to enable its evolvement and adapting to the modern geopolitical context and the expectations of the political elites of individual participating countries. Therefore, these states - Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova - decided to take the initiative into their own hands and on May 17, in Kiev, signed a memorandum at the level of foreign ministers on joining efforts to foster integration into the European Union. The Associated Trio being established confirmed the need to renew the Eastern Partnership and pay more attention to regional security and countering hybrid threats. The Trio considers it important that the EU supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its partners within their internationally recognized borders, and enhances their resilience and capacity to counter challenges to their national security. Furthermore, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia are seeking "to go beyond the DCFTA format and develop additional tools to facilitate and step up the integration process of the Associated Trio countries into the EU internal market." Presidents Zurabishvili, Zelensky and Sandu also signed a declaration on Monday in Batumi. It expresses an unwavering commitment of the three countries to advance further the process of their integration into the European Union through comprehensive reforms to strengthen their democratic institutions and to progressively approximate their legislation "in the relevant sectors with key elements of the EU acquis." The three presidents believe that the Eastern Partnership should develop on the principles of differentiation and inclusivity, foster the European integration process, as well as define long-term ambitious goals and increase its strategic importance following the upcoming regular summit at the end of the year. However, certain discontent and lingering ideological contradictions stemming from the crisis of expectations still were voiced, despite the presence of the President of the European Council Charles Michel at the event. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy openly admitted that "the EU's lack of a strategic vision of the goals of the Eastern Partnership makes this format less substantive and even half-life." On the other hand, the EU (at least, in relation to the Associated Trio) is quite efficient in fulfilling its geopolitical role, which is hardly seen by Kyiv, Chisinau or Tbilisi as an end in itself and at the same time fits well Brussels' pressing goals. Thus, the three presidents' declaration clearly records an unambiguous anti-Russian message, "It is understood that Russia's annexation attempts and illegal occupation of the territories of Georgia, its aggression in the east of Ukraine and temporary occupation of Crimea as well as the unresolved conflict in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova pose a serious threat to the region and Europe as a whole. We are ready to explore together with the EU the ways to achieve peaceful settlement of the conflicts and ensure the long-lasting peace, stability and security in the region, including through enhanced EU role and engagement." In political terms, with regard to the Transdniestrian settlement, this will mean the Chisinau's aspiration to enhance the European Union's status in the 5+2 format to a mediatory one (which is an observer now), as well as replace the Russia-led current peacekeeping mission by an international multinational security mechanism with a dominant role of Euro-Atlantic structures. Maia Sandu and her team are probably aware of the imperfections of existing constructions, including both the Eastern Partnership and the Associated Trio. Georgia, for example, is shaken by another political scandal stemming from the conflict between LGBT supporters and opponents, which led to the injuries among media representatives, and official Tbilisi has been criticized by the international partners and opposition. Ukraine witnesses an endless series of political resignations, the traditional political-oligarchic disunity and confrontation between the president, who is losing his rating, with a number of authorities, including the constitutional court. In this sense, Maia Sandu will use the Associated Trio as a springboard to organize special relations with the EU and a rostrum to create high-profile news stories. Furthermore, the president will probably do everything to become a leader of this informal race and turn into a "Success Story 2.0". Objectively, she has more levers than her trio colleagues, ranging from complete domination in domestic politics, personal ties with Euro-Atlantic structures to no physical borders with Russia. It is in Moldova that Brussels will be able to pursue its agenda to oust Russia's presence, together with its military-strategic and information-propaganda influence, in a most effective and non-conflict way. Given Maia Sandu's personal beliefs, she will act as a reliable ally in these efforts. The only restraining factor might be Transdniestria, where Moscow's positions are still unshakable, which  forces the international community to constantly look back at the Kremlin when planning its Moldova-related policy.