Depopulation of Moldova: Issue without Solution?

Vladimir ROTAR

Comprehensive elaboration of multiple demographic problems is among the priority tasks for the new Moldovan leadership. But, is it possible to solve them generally?

Demographic Disaster Delivering actually her keynote speech at the first meeting of the elected parliament, President Maia Sandu reiterated the existing demographic flaws in Moldova, due to the aging population, falling birth rates, as well as the massive outflow of our compatriots abroad. The existing problems in this area, voiced by the head of state, are indeed literally “screaming”. According to official data, the largest number of people - 212 thousand people - have left the country over the past five years. First, the labor force aged 20-30 leaves the republic, including many high-end professionals, who, by the way, are already lacking in the Moldovan economy right now. At the same time, the birth rate dropped critically, with the last year lowest number for 170 years. Taking into account demographic outflow, it is not surprising that the proportion of the young population has dropped below the dangerous 18 percent. The rural population is rapidly declining against this background: now, more than one and a half hundred villages are near the extinction. The demographic crisis struck, one way or another, almost all countries of the European continent, but in the case of Moldova, it has already acquired all the signs of a catastrophe. Mortality strongly prevails over the birth rate, and the flow of people leaving the country is only increasing. The country cannot get out of this negative spiral in any way: on the contrary, with each time cycle it descends with even more frightening indicators. “The goal is well-paid jobs” It is no secret that the problem of population reproduction in Moldova is protracted, having manifested itself back in the 90s, and it will be practically impossible for the current generation of Moldovan elites to solve it. As practice shows, the policy of encouraging the birth rate, even when combined with a significant improvement in living conditions and an increase in its duration, does not bring the desired result. Although this, of course, does not mean that no one should address it at all, but you need to understand that the country has long lost the opportunity to solve the demographic crisis only at the expense of the fueled baby boom. Migration is the next and, perhaps, the most publicly visible “level” among demographic issues, which, as I have already noted above, is growing almost exponentially. What are the recipes for getting out of this impasse? For example, Maia Sandu, speaking before the parliament, proposed to act primarily in the direction of creating “well-paid jobs”. “A lot of people, especially young people, no longer believe in the possibility of building a better future at home – and leave without a thought of returning. The life of most elderly people is extremely difficult, and raising pensions, taking into account the migration of the younger generation, is a serious test for our weak economy. To solve these problems, we must put in great efforts and put things in order, better managing the resources that we have, and generating new sources through investment and creation of new jobs... Well-paid jobs are the main goal of the government,” the president said. Ambiguous Question However, the issue of labor emigration has so many nuances that it should be approached with extreme caution. There is an important political nuance that makes a huge mass of our compatriots abroad very beneficial for a certain part of the country's political class – namely, the voting of the diaspora. By the way, it predetermined the fate of as many as fifteen mandates for the PAS and made it the largest parliament faction after the last parliamentary elections. Returning these people to Moldova is tantamount to, relatively speaking, “biting hand that feeds you”. Surely this factor, at least, is kept in mind by many of the current republic leaders. Also, for example, there is a strong opinion, including experts, that migrants' money is one of the cornerstones in the country's economy. If we start from the figures, then, at first glance, it is true, since, on average, about 3 billion annually come from abroad to Moldova, both by money transfers and in cash. Moreover, this is almost a quarter of GDP. It is no secret that this money namely makes it possible to maintain the minimum acceptable living standards of Moldovan households. On the other hand, you need to understand that this money goes primarily to consumption, which stimulates imports, which puts even more pressure on local producers, and generates a huge trade imbalance. Roughly speaking, the money from our migrants are being eaten up without much effect precisely for the development of the economy. This is not to say that there were no attempts to change this status quo. But projects to attract money from guest workers to incorporate small and medium-sized businesses have no much success. Do not forget about the pension system, which load is also growing all the time, bringing its inevitable collapse closer. Three “Hitches” Generating well-paid jobs seems like an obvious and logical solution, but it is very ambiguous. Firstly, such places, as it is not difficult to guess, can only be products with high added value. And their creation, in some massive quantities, is very expensive. In fact, we are talking about hundreds and even billions of euros, which Moldova is lacking, and external partners do not show much desire to invest specifically for these purposes. Secondly, these products will require a sales market, and finding it is a big question. Obviously not in the European Union – there are enough own producers, and our republic is expected to have a slightly different range of goods (you know it). Thirdly, all these industries will simply find no workers right here and now. Over the last years, the country experiences a steadily growing shortage of workers in various fields. And business is talking about it more and more loudly. The point is that it does not contribute in any way to bringing our compatriots home, since they prefer to “settle” in the host country by any means. Can Immigrants Be a Salvation? Most experts believe that the current demographic problems have no vital solutions, and it is simply impossible to naturally optimize the structure of the population, which is now dominated by middle-aged and elderly people. It is likely that under the current conditions, the only way out that the business community is actively hinting at and which many European countries have chosen is to encourage immigration. At the same time, there is no doubt that this step will meet with strong disapproval among people. It will be very interesting to see the government's top-priority measures to resolve the demographic crisis. But, I think, no miracles should be expected, since the weight of problems that has been passed on from one governing team to another for many years is too large to cope with it overnight – no matter how brilliant are the managers who have to deal with them.