Ukraine and Moldova: In the Same Geopolitical Environment

Sergiu CEBAN

The contours of major geopolitical deals around Ukraine are gradually emerging, the model of which can later be applied to Moldova.

The pre-election period in Moldova being completed, all the attention of experts observing regional processes begins to shift to our Ukrainian neighbors. There, clouds are slowly gathering in anticipation of a series of important - from Ukraine's prospects viewpoint - international visits. In this regard, experts predict a rather tough autumn season in Kiev's domestic policy which can trigger the most unpredictable developments, up to the "third Ukrainian Maidan". Following Arsen Avakov's dismissal, Ukraine's notorious minister-politician, President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to actively purge the security bloc and other government structures. Even the option of dismissing the speaker of parliament Razumkov is being considered, who is known to have recently started his own relatively independent political game that threatens the interests of the head of state. The coming months will most likely witness the accelerated process of strengthening the presidential vertical and the mobilization of all state and administrative resources needed, first of all, to ensure that the authorities are able to effectively resist attempts by certain opposing financial and political groups to force Zelensky to leave office. The most important item on the Ukrainian president's schedule for this month is a trip to Washington. Its results will be the main indicator of exactly where Kiev is in the White House's foreign policy coordinate system and what are the prospects for Ukraine in the future confrontation with Moscow. So far, the results of work conducted by the advanced group led by Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba in Washington, where the communication agenda between the two presidents is apparently being formed, do not look encouraging. Therefore, "exploratory" statements about the possible deployment of U.S. air defense systems on the territory of Ukraine have been made in the public space in order to see the reaction of Washington, Moscow and Berlin. The visit to the United States will be preceded by a series of important events, such as the Crimean Platform and the 30th Anniversary of Independence. In addition, a one-day visit of the German Chancellor to Kiev was announced last week, which will take place on August 22, that is, one day before the Crimean Platform begins. Despite the fact that the event is one of the major international events for Ukraine, Angela Merkel, apparently, does not plan to participate in it. Obviously, the Chancellor is not willing to overly taunt Moscow, where she will also go on August 20, even before her communication with the Ukrainian leadership. Experts agree that Merkel is not accidentally meeting Volodymyr Zelensky before his visit to the White House. Most likely, her goal is to eliminate any risks for the talks in the United States to defy the principles of the compromising "Washington Declaration", which Biden and Merkel signed in July. Therefore, the set of topics that the Chancellor plans to address in Kiev is somewhat at odds with the "American tasks" of Ukraine's presidential office, and, consequently, the conversation will not be that simple and pleasant. As you know, the Memorandum is closely interconnected with Nord Stream 2, compensation for Ukraine, gas transit through the Ukrainian gas transmission network and implementation of the Minsk Agreements, and, consequently, the Steinmeier formula. After the July meeting of Joe Biden and Angela Merkel, all signs indicate that the United States has agreed with the Federal Republic of Germany on the status of Berlin as a key military-political ally within the European Union. In turn, completing the Nord Stream 2 and involving the Germans in the issue of gas transit through the Ukrainian territory testify to the fact that the energy strategy in Eastern Europe is almost entirely being outsourced to Germany. Therefore, during the upcoming visit, it is quite possible to expect Berlin's initiative to implement the long-standing idea of ​​creating an international consortium to control and develop the gas transportation system of Ukraine. Thus, Angela Merkel is likely to offer Volodymyr Zelensky a very simple model that guarantees the transit of energy resources through the territory of Ukraine, but only if all the necessary circumstances to that end are met: German investors come and take control of the Ukrainian pipe, Moscow reserves the necessary transit capacities, Kiev starts a phased implementation of Minsk agreements, while Brussels gradually eases the sanctions policy and restores relations with Russia. Given all the internal and external circumstances, Ukraine's leadership faces a very difficult choice: either accept the compromise combination achieved by the German diplomacy after a tough work with Washington and Moscow, or continue its principled line expecting support from irreconcilable political groups in the West lobbying military and other support for Kiev to strengthen its confrontation with the Kremlin. Last weekend already witnessed pilot activities on the streets of the Ukrainian capital, involving the National Corps, a well-known radical political party, whose leaders, after clashes with the police near the president's office, warned the head of state against agreements on the eastern territories and water supplies to Crimea. This suggests that even if the country's political leadership is willing to enter into some mutually acceptable deal with external partners, it is not at all a fact that the agreements will be fulfilled and implemented into Ukrainian legislation. Developments in and around Ukraine should be of the greatest interest for the Moldovan leadership and put it on alert. The fact that Dmitry Kozak, appointed by the Kremlin to be simultaneously responsible for the Ukrainian and Moldovan dossiers, flew to Chisinau from Geneva is not an accident but a quite clear signal. After all, it is in the Swiss capital that regular consultations between authorized representatives of Washington and Moscow have been held on various issues since June. The main emphasis in our regional space is certainly placed on our Ukrainian neighbors, who seem to be offered plans at other negotiating tables, which were never elaborated with Kiev's participation. Meanwhile, it is not excluded that external players consider Ukraine and Moldova within the same geopolitical environment, and the tested "German formulas", being slightly adjusted, may soon be put on Maia Sandu's desk by her well-known advisers, to be carefully studied and subsequently implemented.