Expert: Moldova Marked Its 30th Anniversary in a Challenging Regional Environment

Sergiu CEBAN

The way to the next anniversary of independence promises to be no less thorny, and, most likely, even  more difficult than in previous decades.

The past week witnessed yet another anniversary of the republic's independence. Despite the continuing Covid restrictions, the overall festive context turned out to be very intense and rich in events highlighting a new internal political and geopolitical reality that is forming around our country. One of the most resonant episodes early last week was Maia Sandu's participation in the inaugural conference of the Crimean Platform, where she decided not to opt for silence and stated that Moldova stands for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, that the Crimean peninsula is Ukraine, and its illegal annexation is a blatant violation of international law. The party of socialists' reaction to this speech was, certainly, the strongest. Moscow, however, has been quite moderate so far as to Sandu's revelations, apparently realizing that in any case the president is forced to adhere to the general line of the West. Both the Moldovan and Ukrainian independence anniversaries were somewhat marred by a disappointing incident connected with the statements of the President of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid, who apparently wanted to emphasize the need to grant Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia some intermediate status from Brussels. However, the media and experts seized on the phrase that the countries of the "Associated Trio" will need at least two decades to meet the criteria for joining the European Union. Therefore, the Estonian leader was almost flooded with not the most friendly comments from Kiev and Tbilisi. On the very day of celebration, August 27, Chisinau was unexpectedly covered with a thick fog, which caused difficulties for the leaders of neighboring countries in getting to Moldova unhindered to take part in the planned celebrations. Volodymyr Zelensky, who apparently made the last-minute decision to personally arrive in Chisinau with the Ukrainian Prime Minister, was even forced to land in Odessa where he refueled and went back to our capital. Some of the journalists saw a mysterious symbolism in the unforeseen natural circumstances. Yet, let's hope that the prospects for relations with our neighbors won't be so vague and logistically difficult. During a joint press conference with the presidents of Romania, Ukraine and Poland, Maia Sandu said that the success of Moldova as a country will largely depend on its relations with many states and international organizations. In addition, she expressed the desire of Chisinau to develop close and friendly relations based on trust and mutual respect with neighbors, foreign development partners and other countries around the globe. Based on short-term plans, the Republic of Moldova is stepping into the thirty-first anniversary with the following regional configuration and the trajectory of movement. The mission to develop Moldovan-Romanian relations in the coming days has befallen the speaker of parliament, Igor Grosu, who will go to Bucharest to attend the opening of a new session of the Romanian legislative body. Meanwhile, earlier, Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita agreed with her Romanian counterpart to hold a joint meeting of the governments of the two countries as soon as possible with a view to preparing an intergovernmental agreement on gratuitous technical assistance to Moldova. As for relations with Ukraine, it seems that the process of strengthening bilateral ties is still ongoing. Yet another step on this path was the signing of an intergovernmental protocol on amendments to the free trade agreement, providing for the transition to pan-Euro-Mediterranean rules of origin of goods. Moreover, Kiev views this agreement as an important step to replace trade regimes within the CIS, in which Chisinau still retains its nominal participation. One way or another, Chisinau will have to think about the expediency of continuing its membership in the post-Soviet community, since only Moldova from among the members of the “Associated Trio” continues to participate in this organization. As regards the Russian direction, everything is very ambiguous, as always. Despite the fact that President Vladimir Putin sent congratulations to Maia Sandu on the occasion of Independence Day, a representative delegation of Russian deputies, allegedly in retaliation for Sandu's statements at the Crimean Platform, was baldly moving across the territory of the left bank with campaigning purposes, demonstratively ignoring the festive mood on the right bank of the Dniester. The Transdniestrian issue is traditionally full of intrigue and ambiguity. Judging by the leaks in the media, the Moldovan authorities again decided to make a delay for the Transdniestrian vehicles and asked Ukraine not to introduce the ban scheduled for September 1. No less intriguing are the rumors that the negotiators from Chisinau and Tiraspol visited Vienna last week, where, apparently, by chance, the chief Russian diplomat Sergei Lavrov was also on a working visit. In terms of regional security, Chisinau will apparently have to somehow adapt to the plans of our neighbors who are quite actively, though in different ways, promoting the more enhanced role of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Black Sea region. In this regard, Zelensky's statements in Chisinau are very, very inconvenient for the Moldovan authorities, if only for the simple reason that ahead of his visit to Washington, the Ukrainian president defined the Russian military presence in Transdniestria as a source of threats to Kiev. In addition, he linked it all with the initiative to strengthen military cooperation between the Black Sea states, primarily with Romania and Moldova, which, one way or another, have access to the sea. The wave of euphoria from the victory in the early parliamentary elections is gradually moving backwards, revealing the grim state of affairs in our region, where numerous topics and issues await the new leadership that require complex and non-trivial decision-making. The path to the next anniversary of independence promises to be no less thorny and possibly even more difficult than in previous decades. The current Moldovan government, based on a comfortable parliamentary majority, has the necessary political resource. Yet, it is a big question whether it will manage to properly use the available opportunities for solving strategic problems.