Will Chisinau Break the Gas Impasse?

Chisinau's faulty actions in the gas issue multiplied by adverse global trends have  brought Moldova to the brink of a large-scale energy crisis. Most likely, apocalyptic scenarios will be avoided, but mistakes of the authorities are sure to backfire

Vladimir ROTAR, RTA: On Monday, Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu reported on the results of his working trip to St. Petersburg, where he was supposed to hold talks on the gas issue, so troubling for the republic today. Many expected the official to finally dot the i's giving an answer whether there is a cont(r)act or not. In fact, Spinu said nothing specific, assuring only that “there is no reason for concern” and that everything is supposedly proceeding as planned. However, the false optimism of the official responsible for talks with Gazprom correlates little with reality. No new long-term contract reached is a fact. Reduced supplies of natural gas to Moldova and Moldovogaz's request to economic entities to reduce consumption against this backdrop is fact number two. The purchase price of almost $ 800 in October, four-five times exceeding this and last year's prices, is fact number three. And this is not to mention the rumors about a possible crisis with electricity, which Spinu also hastened to matter-of-factly refute. It is clear that the country's leadership was definitely taken by surprise by the gas crisis. Thankfully, no one mentions Maia Sandu's instructions, when she speculated melancholically not long ago about the “pointlessness” of involving the government in resolving this issue. However, the time was anyway lost – even the ruling party MPs do not hesitate to say that it was necessary to start negotiations with Moscow back in August, immediately after the cabinet had been formed. Today, the “energy gaps” have to be bridged in a fast-track manner. The fact that the dialogue with the Russian supplier, despite Spinu's cheerful reports, is not going well can be understood from several cues at once. First, the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, did not receive the Deputy Prime Minister personally, and the latter had to be content only with the meeting with his deputy, Elena Burmistrova. So, it was she who was informed, among other things, of Chisinau's dissatisfaction with the current purchase price and the desire to conclude a new contract on the previous years' terms. Secondly, the media reported on the authorities' request to the European Union for emergency gas supplies. Subsequently, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development partly confirmed this information specifying that negotiations on simultaneous supplies from Russia and the EU are underway. It was probably one of the reasons why Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Nicu Popescu went to Brussels the other day. Interestingly, Spinu himself, talking to journalists, also implied that different scenarios are being worked out, including alternative ways of receiving gas. Chisinau seems to be trying to “bluff” by pretending that it has much choice. The problem is that, in fact, there is only one option, and the Russian side is fully aware of this. Even with the launch of the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline, Russian gas remains the only economically viable option for Moldova. They surely can basically arrange reverse supplies, following Ukraine’s example, receiving Russian gas, let’s say, via Romania, but we better hope the new government will not think of such innovations. Whether Chisinau wants it or not, they will have to negotiate with Gazprom anyway, and most likely on the Russian monopoly’s terms. This understanding is also highlighted by the recent actions of the government who has already started developing mechanisms to compensate for tariff increases during the heating season, but only for vulnerable segments of the population. So far, the gas prices for the population have not been raised, but it has already been reported that the price will be adjusted immediately after the conclusion of a new contract. The gas impasse that the republic has stumbled upon is, of course, largely due to the dynamically changing global environment, including economic recovery, the transition to green energy sources and, as a result, the growth of gas consumption. But it is pretty naive to think that there is only economic side in the issue of gas supplies from Russia to the CIS countries. Yet, for some reason, this approach was adopted by both the head of state, who also expressed this position publicly, and her entourage. As a result, Chisinau did not come to terms of friendship or, at least, camaraderie proposed by Moscow, arranging a number of demarches: on the Crimean platform, at the UN, in the Transdniestrian settlement, in the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, when they did not send observers and loudly protested the vote on the left bank. Let us not forget about symbolic, yet demonstrative steps, such as the non-admission of a Russian peacekeeper to Moldova. In addition, a high-level visit to Russia has not been arranged yet, even though the president who has been in office for a year did have more than enough time for it. So, now it's time to reap what was sown, and it's no surprise that negotiations with Gazprom are so tough. Perhaps, this story will still have a happy ending, however, the ruling party, having forgotten about the existence of foreign policy vectors other than the Western one, is more likely to pay the price of their short-sightedness. Moreover, this time they will have to pay for the “poor conduct”. After all, Dmitry Kozak warned that nobody has to present gifts (actually, unilateral concessions) to anyone for granted. And the new leadership of the country has done nothing for it over the past months. Therefore, the gas price for Moldova will be set not as for “close ones”, but as for other “partners”, with all the ensuing consequences.