Moldova’s Non-Aligned Status: Reality or Myth?

Vladimir ROTARI

The increasing attention of the United States and NATO to the Black Sea region may finally make Moldova’s neutral status discarded.

During the stay of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Nicu Popescu in Moscow, among other things, Moldova’s neutrality issue was brought about. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov separately mentioned that Russia proceeds from the republic’s non-aligned status and respects it. Later on, in an interview with Echo of Moscow radio, Popescu said that according to the Constitution the country is a neutral state, but it doesn’t mean abandoning bilateral or multilateral relations, including in the military sphere. The Russian minister’s statements were hardly made just for dramatic effect, but rather implied that any transformations in the republic’s status will instantly lead to a change in Moscow’s current quite friendly attitude towards Chisinau. The fact that the topic has come up right now is obviously related to the processes that are taking place both in our country and in its regional habitat. If you look at the whole picture, it is clearly visible that the situation in the Black Sea waters is heating up every day. The parties to the hypothetical conflict – Russia and NATO – continue their military build-up in the region. The rhetoric is quite consistent. For example, the Alliance recently agreed on a plan to repel the Russian attack on several fronts, including the Black Sea. And in the NATO 2030 agenda adopted this year, Moscow’s deterrence is among the key goals. In addition, the United States has for a long time been spreading the plot about the accumulation of a Russian military group near the borders of Ukraine, allegedly with the aim of a subsequent large-scale invasion. Curiously, Kiev denied this until recently, saying that it does not observe any maneuvers or equipment transfer in the border zone. Only this week, the nature of the statements of the Ukrainian leadership began to change adapting to Washington’s general line. I think that the entire information campaign about Russia's imminent attack on Ukraine is aimed at further escalation in order to justify the strengthening of its presence in the alleged conflict zone, as well as the countries’ active arming in the region - primarily Ukraine. The US continues to supply lethal weapons there and decided to increase financial assistance to support the Ukrainian army. Its NATO allies are being insistently asked to do the same. Romania remains the bloc’s main springboard in Eastern Europe, and it’s taking on more and more responsibility for security issues on this strategic flank. The neighbor’s leadership unconditionally supports both the strengthening of US and NATO forces on its territory and the further expansion of the organization. In these conditions, whether Moldova likes it or not – which it seems not to, it won’t be able to stay away. As expected, after receiving a controlling stake of power in the country, the rightists are vigorously speeding up the “Euro-Atlantic cooperation”, and at multiple levels. The first level concerns further public awareness campaign in order to overcome the sharply negative attitude towards the bloc that has persisted since Soviet times. Naturally, this campaign was carried out before and yielded impressive results: while in 2013 only 1% of citizens supported the republic’s accession to NATO, now it’s more than 30%. No doubt that this is not the limit, and for starters the authorities will try to at least even out the proportion of supporters and opponents. This would make it possible to fortify ties with the alliance without regard to the electoral consequences and criticism of the opposition. Therefore, it can be assumed that various events and actions, such as the “NATO awareness days” held in early November, will be repeated on a regular basis. By the way, as for the latter, an international conference was also held in Chisinau, where a lot of positive comments were made about our cooperation with this military-political organization. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration representative in fact called it a “success story” (when we apply this formulation to something, it becomes alarming right away). The unofficial curator of our Euro-Atlantic path, a former Romanian politician and now Deputy Secretary General of NATO, Mircea Geoana, also spoke at this conference. The second level directly concerns the military merger, and during a bilateral meeting held at the Ministry of Defense early this month it was agreed to increase its potential. It implies many components: participation in military exercises and operations (by the way, it was recently announced that next year the Moldovan contingent will be sent to Lebanon, though as part of the UN mission), in particular in Kosovo; the rearmament of the National Army, which is supervised on the ground by an American adviser; the development of NATO infrastructure in the country in addition to the already existing offices and a cohort of advisers. And let Nicu Popescu tell journalists that Moldova has a very low percentage of defense spending in the GDP structure, the fact is that these expenditures in the context of Moldova-NATO cooperation are steadily growing, as are the financial amounts spent on the purchase of equipment and weapons. In this regard, we definitely must not forget about direct deliveries of weapons and equipment from the United States already in place, the nomenclature of which is still unknown for certain. Why a constitutionally neutral country should pay so much attention to the processes of retraining and re-equipping its armed forces amid a critical lack of funds for development is an open question. A banal logic suggests, the only commensurate opponent can be the left-bank armed formations and the small contingent of Russian troops disposed there. However, the ruling party peremptorily states that they see the solution of the Transdniestrian problem only by peaceful means and that it would be pure madness to mess with the Russian military. Or is that not true? Judging by the latest events, Washington, in addition to promoting the topic about the attack on Ukraine, has taken up the issue of the Russian military presence in Moldova. On November 10, Congress adopted a resolution calling for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Transdniestria. Why we are artificially drawn into the Russian-Western geopolitical confrontation is a rhetorical question. It’s obvious that the Black Sea region is currently one of the key regions for NATO. Therefore, all its countries that can bring any strategic or tactical benefit are mobilized and prepared accordingly. Our republic, with its long-standing frozen conflict and the Russian grouping, fits perfectly, even despite its own low potential. After all, pawns are also important and can sometimes even play a crucial role. That is why Washington was so actively involved in our electoral processes last year and this year, audaciously violating all the rules of diplomatic etiquette just to pave a direct and safe way for the victory of the forces it needed. And what about the non-block status? As we can see, our authorities understand this as a very flexible thing that excludes only direct membership in military blocs, but not cooperation with them. Nobody was going to take Moldova into NATO in the foreseeable future anyway. As in the case of Ukraine, the goals and objectives set for Chisinau and Kiev simply don’t imply this. No obligations on the one hand – maximum benefits on the other. Who can resist such a formula? Therefore, formally, our neutral status is really not in danger, but given current trends, it will soon be only on paper.