West Prepares a Military Campaign in Moldova

The war in Ukraine is about to take a new turn, and Moldova is at risk of being directly involved in the upcoming events

Semyon ALBU, RTA: Looks like we can only dream of regional stability. The diplomatic voyages of recent months and weeks appear to have been to no vail. And there was originally little hope for them to succeed. So now everyone is preparing for a new round of war in Ukraine, bloodier and more unpredictable as usual. Kyiv has fulfilled its part of the “deal” by passing through the law to tighten mobilization, in almost the toughest form by the way. They didn’t even hesitate to scrap a provision on the demobilization of those currently serving after 24-36 months, a move met with anger by military personnel. The new regulations will allow to redouble recruitment to the AFU, now the task not just for recruitment officers but also the police. The Ukrainian forces are expected to be reinforced by hundreds of thousands of new soldiers in the foreseeable future. In turn, the Western allies are once again bolstering their support. The conditions for Ukraine are worse than before, but we understand that beggars don’t have many options. On Saturday, Congress may vote on a $60-billion aid package – of course, in loans, but the key point is that the money will be allocated, enabling massive arms deliveries. Meanwhile, Europe is preparing to buy large quantities of ammunition and air defense systems, and soon F-16 fighter jets with Ukrainian pilots trained in NATO countries will be on the territory of the neighboring country. Given all this, as well as new recruits, the potential of the Ukrainian army will be significantly strengthened. It is also worth bearing in mind that the current situation of the Ukrainian armed forces is not as dire as it is portrayed by the Western press. All these lamentations about the breakthrough of the front in the next few weeks and the offensive on Odesa and Kyiv was needed to primarily open the way for new military supplies and increased funding of the war. And on top of that, it allowed to implant the idea in public space that the West does not have to stop at this point. Now it’s time to recall the famous proposal of French President Emmanuel Macron to send Western troops directly to Ukraine to shield vital areas, such as the border with Belarus, from where Ukrainian forces may be released to fight the Russians. Don’t be too optimistic that the initiative has gone unheeded by the rest of the allies. In fact, this is a rather crucial point, as it was important for the West to once again push the red lines and boundaries of its possibilities, and to threaten Moscow with an expansion of the conflict in case the latter shows obstinacy. The Russian Federation’s statements about establishing a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine followed exactly in the same vein. Banal ping-ponging with threats amid active diplomatic efforts. Now that another round of war is about to start, the time has come to bring these threats to life. I cannot judge the credibility of the reports by Russian intelligence that the first contingents of the French are already in Ukraine. But there are facts that have been made publicized, and they are related to our country. Yes, I am talking about the very defense agreement between France and Moldova, which, of course, was not revealed to the public, though it contains many details that could amaze us. Add to this the establishment of the French military mission in Chisinau, allegedly with “only one attaché”, which, of course, is an absolute nonsense that the Ministry of Defense is once again selling us. Against this background, the Western expert community is beginning to promote the idea of sending a permanent military contingent to Moldova, which may provide a handy springboard for NATO troops. Looking at the map, it is hard to disagree with this. Staying in our country will ensure the safety of the sent soldiers in a seemingly non-warring country and will allow them to be quickly transferred, if necessary, to Odesa, the key city in this war along with Kyiv. Or they can implement any military scenarios on the left bank. Meantime, efforts to justify a military incursion into Moldova are in full swing. Regarding France, there is a notorious defense agreement, and they are doing much to shape public opinion there. Concurrently, the ministry of national defense in neighboring Romania is promoting a draft law providing for the possibility to defend its citizens outside the country. And I think it is no secret where exactly they want to do this. Our authorities are making counter moves to propose a rationale to justify Western intervention. Obviously, this happens at the suggestion of foreign partners. Our government, which exists only thanks to the external financial aid and diplomatic support, is clearly unable to resist their opinion. That is why our foreign minister, and the rest of the PAS bigwigs, started to talk with redoubled vigor about the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare and to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Moldovan territory, which is fully backed by the West. Ukraine is also adding to the tension by appointing such an odious hawk as Danilov as ambassador to Moldova. The direct question to our minister from Oleksiy Goncharenko, Ukraine’s representative in PACE, as to whether it would be worth considering a military scenario for resolving the Transnistrian conflict, is equally illustrative. Even though he is an opposition MP, it is a good indicator of the mood among Ukrainian politicians. There are many options when it will be possible to call on allies for Moldova’s “defense”. One such obvious timing point may be the period of autumn presidential elections and the referendum on European integration. According to the official state mythology, the Kremlin is already actively interfering in the internal politics of the country and making efforts to disrupt the referendum. It is obvious that the anti-Russian hysteria will grow as the events approach and will reach its peak in the weeks before and after the referendum. This is when the situation may explode: let’s say, in the face of “incredible Russian hybrid aggression” Chisinau withdraws from the 1992 agreement, which will remove the grounds for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the region, and then it will turn out that part of the country is definitely occupied by the Russian forces. Good thing, the decisions of European structures with such conclusions have been adopted long ago. And why not officially appeal to our senior mentors for help? It is easy to predict what will happen next. Provocation, war, loss of last prospects. Is this for the first time? And do not pay attention to the PAS mantras about “peaceful settlement”. The “yellows” made a lot of promises before, but did they fulfil them? Instead of a developing democracy, we have an authoritarian captured state with total censorship and meager political pluralism. So, why shouldn’t we obtain a NATO military presence and a “hot scenario” instead of neutrality and peaceful reintegration?