Pre-election Marathon: Who Will Dare to Challenge Sandu?

Sergiu CEBAN

Two major candidates still dominate in the electoral political spectrum: Sandu on the right and Dodon on the left. However, the presidential campaign has yet to include a figure who might take a centrist position, trying to appeal to a large part of the electorate - as Sandu herself successfully did in 2020

Six months before the elections, it makes sense to once again look at the current list of the main contenders for the presidential post. Moreover, based on the timing and nature of the current election contest, all those who really want to join the presidential race should probably announce themselves by the end of May at the latest. After all, it is necessary to have a time reserve and a running start distance, so that the election campaign could gain sufficient momentum. As before, Maia Sandu is the main favorite with the best chances of winning. However, based on the key indicators of Sandu as a candidate , her chances of re-election for a second term are not so clear. First of all, it is a matter of sociology, which every time reveals certain vulnerabilities which are sources of various risks. This suggests that under certain scenarios, the current leader of Moldova will not be able to attract the necessary number of votes to win. One of the weakest points of her election campaign is that it relies exclusively on the topic of European integration. Although the results in this area are to some extent Sandu’s personal merit, this mainstream and “worn-out” goal is unlikely to overshadow the pressing problems of ordinary people. To what extent such a strategy will work is a difficult question, especially for the incumbent president’s advisers. I think that towards mid-year it will be clear whether they reversed the negative trends undermining Sandu’s rating. Alas, but ordinary people have a simple thinking: if the president is now carefully avoiding key problems, then within the new mandate she will not deal with domestic affairs, focusing only on foreign ones. The status of the main contender for the honorable second place is firmly held by the socialist leader Igor Dodon. It is curious that the Moldovan judicial system time after time favors the ex-president, and the most hardline PAS leaders are notably softer in their statements about him. This means that the current government creates the most comfortable environment for Dodon and is even ready to give him a political embrace, just to ensure that he does not change his mind about running for president. Thus, Dodon’s participation or non-participation in the elections will be a key marker of who really has a decisive influence on him, Chisinau/West or Moscow. Renato Usatii is another nominee with clear presidential ambitions, who is trying to remain in the media field gradually stirring up voter interest in his extraordinary personality. Given the peak rates of Usatii’s popularity in the past years, he is quite capable of riding the protest trend. And if Dodon is persuaded not to disgrace himself once again, the Our Party leader’s chances of coming second will be multiplied. On the other hand, it is obvious that in our realities we should not expect another Argentine scenario and the election of an extravagant populist politician as head of state. For this reason, Usatii can also be classified as a “convenient” electoral competitor, who is likely to lose to Sandu in the second round. Alternative candidates appearing on the right side of the political spectrum, who may weaken Maia Sandu’s chances and take away a small but very important number of votes, remains one of the main intrigues. Especially now, when every percent matters. Given the fact that the “First Lady” is carefully guarded by Western ambassadors, so far, we can only notice Sandu’s former ACUM colleagues Andrei Nastase and Alexandru Slusari on the horizon. The others, apparently, do not dare or do not risk to challenge her. As a result, four months later, the electoral political spectrum is still dominated by two key candidates, Sandu on the right and Dodon on the left. Apart from populists or politicians with vague ambitions, the campaign still lacks a figure who might enter the election from a centrist position, trying to appeal to a large part of the electorate, i.e. both right and left. This, by the way, was the basis of Maia Sandu’s successful electoral strategy in 2020. Many experts expected, and continue to expect, that the capital’s mayor, Ion Ceban, who can be considered the most appropriate candidate for the post of national leader at the moment, will play such a role. Perhaps Ceban’s team has no intention of getting involved in a dubious presidential affair, and is planning to gradually build up its forces for the 2025 parliamentary campaign. If so, this explains his reluctance to go head-on with Sandu and key Western partners. However, we cannot rule out that Ceban is just buying time, and when the race enters its acute toxic phase, he will try to stand “above the clash” and offer himself as the main alternative to the “permanent” Sandu-Dodon tandem. Realizing that the Moldovan electorate has a demand for “new faces”, other political forces are also trying to occupy this vacant niche. As expected, former foreign minister Tudor Ulianovschi, who positions himself as a supporter of a balanced Moldovan policy, has joined the general list of presidential candidates. For now, it’s hard to know who is behind the new candidate. However, it is known that in addition to a direct relation to Vladimir Plahotniuc’s cabinet, Ulianovschi’s relatives are involved in the Sor case, as well as in the Lucinschi family. By the way, Ilan Sor’s “Victory” is also preparing to nominate its candidate for the electoral process and present him almost as “the Kremlin’s main favorite”. The latter is rather doubtful. Of course, many people in Chisinau are worried about who Moscow will eventually choose. Some experts naively expect an open bet, but Russians realize that explicit support for any of the candidates automatically makes him an outsider because of the current international political status of the Russian Federation. Therefore, all potential candidates - Irina Vlah, Ion Chicu, Ion Cheban, and even Ulianovschi - may have some ties with the Russian capital, but indirect and carefully concealed. Especially since all the stars have aligned for the accession referendum to be held, the failure of the plebiscite after the first round of voting in the presidential election becomes one of the Kremlin’s most important tasks. Any misstep and poor voting figures on European integration will automatically affect Maia Sandu’s prospects before the second round, seriously compromising her re-election for a second term. In general, after four months, there is a little more clarity about the presidential election. Nevertheless, the main electoral equation still contains many variables and unknowns that can dramatically change the course of both the campaign and the voting process.