How Do RTA Experts Assess Stoianoglo’s Nomination as a Presidential Candidate?

Stoianoglo in, Dodon out – here is what our experts have to say about the biggest event of Moldova’s presidential race

Anton ŠVEC Igor Dodon’s withdrawal is the result of the opposition’s trips to Russia and the meetings that took place on the margins of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Therefore, there is no doubt that Dodon’s drop out of the race was ordered by the Kremlin. Moreover, one can safely claim that the Victory bloc and the entire team of Ilan Sor, together with the Socialists and Communists, will support the candidacy of Alexandr Stoianoglo at least in the second round. Igor Dodon has nothing to lose in this scenario, since he has personally had no chance of winning. But this truly “generous and politically mature” move will bring back the sympathy of hesitant leftist voters to the PSRM and will allow the party to perform well in the March parliamentary elections. If everything goes according to the Socialist leader’s plan, the number of mandates in the new convocation will definitely be at least two dozen. This is enough to bargain with the authorities and ensure further political existence, which will be helpful given the pending criminal cases. As for Stoianoglo, his rating is not that high, and there is not much time left for promotion. Therefore, his first round lead is almost excluded. But in the second round, if he does, the ex-prosecutor general, a real victim of the regime and a competent politician with minimal anti-rating, may become a dangerous opponent for Maia Sandu, due to his ability to consolidate an array of protest votes. It is important to see who from among the opposition will support him, especially among those who will gain some votes in the first round. Apart from the above-mentioned Sor supporters, Socialists and Communists, Alexandr Stoianoglo can hope for the support of Irina Vlah and the Civic Congress, but the decisive role will be played by Ion Chicu, Ion Ceban and Vlad Filat. The involvement of Ceban, if his partners in the U.S. and Romania allow it, on Stoianoglo’s side would be almost a fatal challenge for the current president. Therefore, active behind-the-scenes bargaining is certain to take place in the coming months. This Wednesday, at the meeting announced by Igor Dodon, nothing will be decided yet. In fact, it even seems to be a false start. Now it is more crucial to promote the new candidate and not to deal with the division of powers and battles within the opposition. Igor Dodon, if he is interested in Stoianoglo’s victory, should help promote him, co-organize meetings in the districts, and help gather the left-wing electorate around him. It is not yet clear how the ex-general prosecutor’s Gagauz origin will affect his prospects, which could be a problem, especially outside the cities. At the same time, he has an excellent command of the state and Russian languages and can formulate an adequate programme and answers to pressing issues. All that remains is to convince the voters. Christian RUSSU: The public has finally received some encouraging news from the opposition. Now there is a chance that this autumn we will have a vibrant and competitive presidential campaign. At least, this was the feeling many people had after Igor Dodon’s refusal to run himself and to support the candidacy of Alexandr Stoianoglo. Exactly what the Socialist leader talked a lot about, but what everyone who is familiar with Moldovan politics and knows the price of promises in it was skeptical about, has happened. Recall, speculations about nominating a single counter-candidate started last year, when after the local elections, which were a failure for the ruling party, the opposition saw the glimpse of a possible victory. But it is possible only in case of consolidation around a non-party candidate. After all, even despite the anti-rating of PAS and its informal leader, the chances of the fragmented opposition to really compete with Maia Sandu are not great. It so happened that contradictions around Sandu’s main electoral rival focused on Dodon. He is undoubtedly the best sparring partner for PAS. And he was softly pushed to this role to guarantee the predictable scenario of Maia Sandu’s repeated victory. At the same time, the PSRM leader was the only one in all the polls who showed a rating close to the level of the current president, which gave him grounds to say that “only he has a chance to win”. It was difficult to argue with this statement, especially after Ion Ceban had left the race. Dodon is known to have repeatedly declared in public his readiness to support a single non-party candidate from the opposition. Moreover, in recent weeks, it seemed that he was the only one who continued to talk about it, but not many believed he was frank. Now, we can say that the ex-president rehabilitated himself, demonstrating a lack of political egoism not typical of him before. The ensuing criticism by experts and pro-government media that Dodon’s involvement in the announcement of Stoianoglo’s nomination intoxicated the latter looks more like confusion in the ranks of the ruling party than truth. The PAS is still hopeful that yesterday’s decisions of the Socialists are not final. They hurry to vilify the socialist with his gesture of goodwill as much as possible in the hope of derailing this option and bringing back the agreed “Sandu vs Dodon” scenario. Of course, Dodon can be reproached for exploiting the situation to collect political dividends, although he could have invited all opposition leaders to Stoianoglo’s nomination, or for the intent to improve the image of PSRM before the parliamentary elections with the help of a reputable former prosecutor-general. All this is true, but the ex-president is not Mother Teresa, but a politician. The goal of any politician is to attain power. In this case, however, Dodon is giving it up, albeit for strategic reasons. Among other things, the practical side of the issue suggests that Alexandr Stoianoglo needs resources – human, financial, organizational – to carry out his election campaign. In order to officially enter the presidential race, it is necessary to collect votes, then to form headquarters, a team of lawyers, to campaign in the field, etc. The Socialists’ extensive party structure on the ground and a battle-hardened team makes it possible to accomplish these tasks. Otherwise, Stoianoglo will not even obtain the status of a candidate. As for moral support, Stoianoglo will certainly get it. The entire legal community of the country, which has experienced the arbitrariness of the ruling party, will surely support the former prosecutor general. The sympathies of many public figures, opinion leaders, and journalists who have not come to terms with authoritarian methods of government and are longing for the return of times when, at least, it was possible to freely speak and criticize whomever one wanted, are also guaranteed. The executioners from the power structures responsible for punitive measures will prefer to elect another president in the hope of breaking out of the vicious circle of the need to execute criminal orders. We can add to this range all those who in one way or another supported Stoianoglo, who looks like a “martyr” and a victim of the authorities’ arbitrary behavior. As for the motely opposition camp, the situation will be complicated. One part of the opposition projects has already stated that they want to participate in the race independently, while the other part is acting as banal whistleblowers for PAS. Obviously, their endorsement would help Stoianoglo to legitimize his status and really claim the role of a single non-party candidate. One could suggest signing a Pact in Support of Stoianoglo or some other fancy PR project. Although there is also an opinion that unanimous support at this stage may even be harmful, as it will push the ruling party to take a simple but effective decision to withdraw Stoianoglo from the race. I personally have little faith in the mobilization of the population and mass street protests to defend the “people’s candidate”. Sergiu CEBAN: So, as I said earlier, the most unpleasant thing for the president’s team, which has the initiative, are unexpected surprises ahead of the elections and sudden twists in the already set storyline. Removing convenient Igor Dodon from the electoral game is the very “black swan” which the President’s Office feared so much. In recent months, Dodon has been actively giving interviews and travelling abroad, intriguing about his (non-)participation in the elections. At the same time, all signs, both his behavior and the authorities, hinted that the Socialist leader was carefully preparing the ground for his nomination with the motive of “who else but me?”. As a result, Alexandr Stoianoglo entered the electoral arena as an independent candidate, but supported from the start by PSRM. According to some calculations, this electoral “surprise” should have happened a little later, but for reasons unknown to us, the process was accelerated. Undoubtedly, this maneuver ruined the coherent plan of Maia Sandu’s electoral headquarters and significantly complicates her re-election for a second term. Having failed to obtain Moscow’s blessing to participate in the presidential election, Dodon, in his traditional manner, is trying to compensate for this by headlining the process of consolidation the entire opposition around Stoianoglo. Alas, political experience teaches nothing to the Socialist leader, who already tried to fool everyone in 2019-2020 and eventually outplayed himself, losing his position. The point is that the potential failure of Maia Sandu, if it is the beginning of the end of the current political regime, will certainly not lead to the return to power of the old political forces who compromised themselves in previous years. Therefore, the socialists should not expect that they will restore the lost positions thanks to the possible victory of Stoianoglo. The electorate is definitely not ready to go back to the past and associates the parliamentary elections with new political projects and new faces that can breathe some hope into Moldovan politics. It is still difficult to speculate about what exactly the election strategy of Alexandr Stoianoglo will be, especially until the representatives of the main opposition forces speak out. Nevertheless, some of its features are already visible now. The former prosecutor can gather around him many people against whom the current system has committed serious abuses, raising the anti-rating of the incumbent president to such levels as to turn the vote more against Sandu than in his favor. The likelihood of being removed from the electoral race is directly proportional to how strong the opposition’s support will be. The West is willing to turn a blind eye to many things in order to keep its political appointee in power, but such a drastic step will be taken on the basis of calculations about how much Stoianoglo’s disqualification may destabilize the situation and delegitimize the elections. From the point of view of political symbolism, Stoianoglo’s victory will have a very serious effect, akin to the success of the first African American Barack Obama in the USA, because for the first time the country can be led by a representative of national minorities and one of the country’s troubled regions. In fact, the elections will show what the main criteria of the modern voter are and whether its national ego is not infringed by the fact that the first person will be a citizen of other nationality than Moldovan or Romanian.