How to Evade Talking About Evaders

There is another topic in relations with the eastern neighbor that the authorities would prefer to avoid

Vladimir ROTARI, RTA: Despite the seeming prosperity, there are still many awkward issues in relations between Moldova and Ukraine. Yesterday, a colleague already wrote about the different visions of the European integration process and Chisinau’s concealed desire to “detach” itself from Kyiv. Even earlier we wrote about the ecological problems of the Dniester, where there are major contradictions in the current interests of the two states. There is another controversial topic that potentially can complicate dialogue with Ukraine. I mean the situation with the so-called “evaders”, which was recently outlined by Ambassador Marko Shevchenko, who is completing his mandate. As well known, after the start of the Russian invasion, most Ukrainian men lost the right to leave the country. This obviously led to the flourishing of corrupt schemes, for example, to obtain documents of ineligibility for military service or entry into the special system “Shlyakh”. However, over time, the Ukrainian authorities have more or less plugged these loopholes, including by staging showy detentions and/or resignations. For instance, all military commissars were dismissed at once amid widespread corruption in military conscription offices. That same year, after the law on mobilization was tightened, it became much more difficult to leave Ukraine. Even the availability of all authorization documents does not guarantee a Ukrainian of conscription age the possibility to go abroad. For those who have no deferment rights or influential acquaintances, the only available option is to cross the border outside the established checkpoints. Some do it on their own, but due to the complexity of such a trip, most of them use the offers of special “guides” for a fairly large sum from several thousand to several tens of thousands of dollars. Despite the risks – Ukrainian security forces often hide under the guise of “intermediaries” – thousands of men manage to escape from Ukraine every week. Romania and Moldova remain among the most popular escape destinations. This is confirmed by the data of the Border Police, which recorded an impressive 154% increase in illegal migration this year. While working to make the borders more impenetrable, Kyiv is also engaged in a parallel dialogue with the countries where Ukrainians are mostly settled, with the aim of bringing them home. It is not just about mobilization – the neighboring country as a whole is experiencing a shortage of people both on the frontline and in the economy, which is suffering from an acute shortage of labor. Attempts to re-train women in traditionally male-dominated professions have not yet borne much fruit, and Ukrainian business and industry are feeling worse every day amid energy problems and a persistent shortage of personnel. Kyiv is therefore increasingly pressurizing its partners to take decisive measures with regard to Ukrainian citizens abroad. This concerns the reduction or cancellation of the established support measures and, in general, the creation of conditions that would force refugees to return home. Even earlier we assumed that the neighboring state would address the same request to Chisinau. Now Ambassador Shevchenko confirmed that a substantive dialogue on this topic is underway, although he only mentioned the issue of extraditing evaders who cross the border illegally. I can assume that the negotiations actually concern all Ukrainian refugees in Moldova in general. According to official statistics, a total of 1.4 million Ukrainians has entered our republic since the beginning of the war. Such a huge flow was a great challenge for both politicians and society, but we managed to cope with it. That said, refugees bring challenges as well as opportunities. For Moldova, which is in a phase of rapid depopulation, 125 thousand people, including almost 24 thousand men, remaining on our territory, is a great help, especially amid 200 thousand Moldovans who left the country during the same period. Of course, right now they are not quickly integrated into the economy, but in the strategic perspective it is a great asset. Besides, even today more than two thousand Ukrainians have already been granted Moldovan citizenship, more than 1200 got employed in Moldova. Most likely, the package of Ukrainian demands includes organizing the extradition of those evaders who are now in the Republic of Moldova, establishing a process of rapid transfer of “escapists” right at the border by coordinating the relevant services of the two states, as well as creating conditions for the return of the bulk of Ukrainian refugees home. But for our authorities, these issues, as well as the whole situation, creates well-known inconveniences for a number of reasons. On the one hand, there is the political aspect of the need to support the warring Ukraine in every possible way. We have been clearly following this course since 2022, which leaves little room for maneuver. On the other hand, there are objective interests of Moldova, which consist in maximizing the integration and consolidation of those Ukrainians who have settled on our territory. It can also be assumed that extradition of people “for war” will be badly perceived by the public – recall the case of the Turkish teachers. There are also less lofty nuances. Schemes for illegal migration of Ukrainian evaders include not only military personnel at checkpoints and border guards, but also Moldovan officials. According to testimonies of those who have used this route, officials “meet” people at the border and help them with further actions to obtain the necessary documents to stay in Moldova or for further transit to other countries. On a fee-for-service basis, of course. I do not want to accuse anybody without proofs, but it is logical to assume that such schemes are supervised not by field officers, but by major officials and from the above. Especially since the Border Police have not the most impeccable resume in terms of corruption. It is clear that no one in our country is going to give up such a stable source of income. In addition, Kyiv is toughening its actions against those illegal trafficking schemes that have no political cover and are a business for individuals. This year, they have already led to tragic incidents on Moldovan territory twice. The first such case dates back to January, when shooting took place on the Transnistrian section of the border, as a result of which one Transnistrian resident was killed and another wounded. According to Ambassador Mark Shevchenko, they were involved in organizing the illegal traffic of Ukrainians. In addition, a Ukrainian citizen was recently found dead in the Ocnita district 250 meters from the Ukrainian border, reportedly with bullet wounds. We can assume that he was shot by Ukrainian border guards, especially as the number of such precedents is increasing, hinting at instructions from above. Such incidents of killing people in Moldova are extremely politically burdensome, as the authorities have to turn a blind eye to them in order not to spoil relations between the two countries. Therefore, the first case I described was ignored by the relevant agencies, and in the second case, only a week later, it was reported that there were no signs of violent death and that the person had arrived illegally. That is, the topic was blatantly hushed up, apparently following a discussion through closed channels. And such episodes are definitely visible to the public, affecting the image of the authorities. It is hard to say what decisions will be taken as a result of Kyiv’s requests, but there can be no doubt that they will have to be answered. I would like to remind you that soon a new Ukrainian ambassador will come to Moldova - ex-Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov, who will be much less tactful and much more persistent and active, including in the media. In the event that our leadership is not in a hurry to come to terms with the issues of refugees and evaders, Danilov is likely to do everything to make them as toxic as possible by organizing public pressure on Chisinau. It’s pretty curious to see how the authorities will handle the situation.