Why Is the Conflict in Ukraine Escalating?

Christian RUSSU

For the first time in 30 months, Ukrainian forces have launched a full-fledged attack on a recognized territory of Russia. Why now?

The invasion of the Ukrainian armed forces into Russia’s Kursk region has brought the conflict to a new level. For the first time in two and a half years, a recognized territory of the Russian Federation is a scene of a full-fledged general military operation, not a foray by subversive and reconnaissance groups under a foreign flag as it was before. The Ukrainian breakthrough is hidden in the fog of war, but it is already known that the attack involves hundreds of soldiers and officers supported by armored vehicles, drones and artillery. It is obvious that such a massive military action has not only PR objectives, but also a definite military and political meaning. Just as the offensive of Russian troops in the north of Kharkiv Oblast served to cover the neighboring Belgorod Oblast from constant shelling, so the activation by Ukraine of substantial forces and equipment in the Kursk Oblast has clear tactical and strategic goals. Given that the course of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has long been a part of public and political life on both sides of the Atlantic, any significant changes in it are actively used in the domestic political struggle. After the end of the election cycle in the EU, all attention is turned to the election campaign in the United States. In this regard, it is symbolic that the attack on the ‘old’ Russian region coincided with the official nomination of Kamala Harris as a presidential candidate from the Democratic Party. The team promoting the current vice president to the post of the White House hostess are most likely the main stakeholder in current developments. They use the situation to portray Madam Harris as an active and decisive leader, who, against the background of the cautious and hesitant Biden, should produce an explosive mobilizing effect on the electorate of the Democrats. It appears that this is the second big event since the launch of her media promotion which is supposed to convince Americans that the best alternative to Biden is not Trump, with his focus on making deals with authoritarian leaders, but Harris, who is already producing results. The same goes for the release of American citizens from Russian prisons, which was largely seen as a sign of ongoing negotiations for a peace deal in Ukraine. However, this is just another point in the credentials of the new Democratic Party candidate in the U.S. electoral race. The broad media coverage of the first F-16 fighter jet delivery to Ukraine also fits into this strategy to win political weight for Harris. Apart from the obvious information and political gains, it is vital for the current U.S. administration to show the futility of Trump’s strategy of reaching an early peace deal on Ukraine and relying on extra-systemic political forces in Europe. The current leaders in Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Donald Trump himself, have recently been subjected not only to massive pressure from the Brussels bureaucracy and Washington, but were even the targets of assassination attempts. Growing threats of losing power by the current political elite of the EU and Britain, given the strengthening of powers that advocate a pragmatic nationalist program, compel the ruling elites of the West to use the full range of political and economic sanctions against those who support the course of restoring the union of sovereign nation-states in Europe In all this confrontation, the applied economic tools are of particular importance for our regional context. One of the first signals that there is a political objective to weaken the negotiating positions of Hungary and Slovakia was the termination of oil supplies from Russia through the Druzhba pipeline. These supplies were formally taken out of the scope of the EU sanctions against Russia. Yet, by a simple decision of the National Security and Defense Council against Russia’s Lukoil, Kyiv nullified the exemptions from the sanctions package won by Budapest and Bratislava. At the same time, their attempts to urge Brussels to intervene to protect the interests of the two member states from the unfriendly actions of the candidate country, predictably went unheeded. The logic of further steps to coerce the leadership of Hungary and Slovakia, which, despite the position of the EU and the United States, continued to expand their energy cooperation with Russia, including gas imports, is not difficult to understand. While recently the prospects of gas transit to Europe looked optimistic, now, after obvious plans of the AFU to gain a foothold in the Sujan district of Kursk region, where the main pipeline runs and a gas-measuring station is located, the forecast is disappointing. Moreover, Ukrainian partners have already warned our authorities, for example, that there are risks to gas supplies to Moldova because of the military operations in the area. The America’s demonstrative disengagement from the events at Kursk, coupled with the doubts of mainstream Western media and military commentators about the logic of the Ukrainian command, should create the impression that the West is allegedly completely uninvolved in what is happening. By the way, a similar policy of “radio silence” on the part of the United States and the EU was observed during the Nord Stream pipeline disruptions, which deprived Germany and Russia of economic and political interdependence. If the main gas infrastructure on the territory of the Russian Federation is out of operation, the latter will remain responsible for the disruption of gas supplies under the existing contracts with EU counterparties. In view of sufficient gas reserves in European underground storage facilities (as of August 7, they exceeded 86%), a one-stage cessation of gas transit through Ukraine will not be critical. The relatively calm reaction of traders to the latest news also confirms this. Yesterday, the TTF exchange quotations rose by only 7%. In turn, the current Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be able to guarantee American companies a new share in the LNG market in Europe, where the key countries in need will be those whose leaders her rival Donald Trump planned to rely on. Such changes will entail significant ramifications for all regional players, including Moldova, aggravating the already tense situation and geopolitical divide. However, this scenario best fits the logic of confrontation and expansion in south-eastern Europe, which still retains remnants of the Soviet legacy of military and political confrontation with the West.