Stand-Down Trend and Scenarios for Moldova

Anton ŠVEС

Global players are focused on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and are seeking to avoid escalation in other challenging regions, and it is in Moldova’s interests

The modern world has entered a phase of overstrain due to a series of military conflicts that are not only difficult to manage and control, but have also provoked an economic downturn and humanitarian crises. Therefore, key geopolitical actors are taking steps to reduce tensions. Among them are the Russian Federation, which provides mediation services to pacify several “flash point”, and the United States, which is interested in reducing tensions in the Middle East. This week, Vladimir Putin arrived in Azerbaijan to help negotiate a peace treaty and demarcate the state border between Baku and Yerevan by the end of the year. Azerbaijan, famously, resolved the Nagorno-Karabakh issue through military force and is now seeking to record Armenia’s refusal to attempt revenge by demanding changes to the Armenian constitution. Meanwhile, the protests against territorial and political concessions by government of Nikol Pashinyan has begun to decline, as well as the number of border incidents. Yerevan’s turn toward the European Union, being formally part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, is weakening Moscow’s support and opening up opportunities for Baku to finally settle the Armenian issue. In these circumstances, Vladimir Putin on Monday volunteered to support an agreement on resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The situation in Georgia is also developing in a political direction. Tbilisi recently adopted a statement that essentially placed all the blame for unleashing the Five-Day War in South Ossetia on Mikheil Saakashvili. It immediately found understanding in Moscow, which offered its assistance in establishing contacts with Sukhum and Tskhinvali. The Georgian ruling party in its program already hints at the prospects of restoring the national territorial integrity, although there have been no clear prerequisites for such significant Transcaucasian transformations so far. However, the common feasible interest is obviously maintaining regional security. Global players have managed to prevent a catastrophic escalation in the Middle East. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas recently visited Moscow and secured the support of Vladimir Putin, who advocated a peaceful settlement and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The new head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Yahya Sinwar, has also declared his willingness for negotiations and an exchange of hostages. The relevant consultations have already begun under the mediation of Arab states, but without the participation of Palestinian representatives at this stage. At the same time, Washington is actively pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare a ceasefire and provide humanitarian aid to the population in the Gaza Strip. On the same note, the White House held consultations with Iran and asked to abandon the retaliatory strike against Israel that was planned after the assassination of former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital. These US efforts were synchronized with the visit to Tehran of Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who similarly called on Iran to react with restraint. The leadership of the Islamic Republic has already announced that counter-moves have been postponed to a later date. Despite the fact that the Middle East plot is still far from a fair outcome, the international community can bring stand-down closer by joint actions and take steps to provide humanitarian support to residents of Palestinian enclaves. In addition, no incidents between China and Taiwan have been recorded in recent months, which is directly related to Washington’s focus on domestic affairs. The outcome of the US elections will largely determine the further trajectory of the US-China competition and the conflict between Beijing and Taipei. For now, all participants are simply observing the situation and trying to refrain from drastic steps. Contrary to the position of some South American countries, Washington is unexpectedly pursuing a rather passive line regarding the results of the presidential elections in Venezuela, without direct engagement in provoking the conflict and refusing to restore sanctions against Caracas. Against this background, the extended escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation after the invasion of the Ukrainian armed forces into the Kursk Region stands in sharp contrast to the relatively peaceful policies of key states in other conflict areas. Moreover, during the summer, Moscow and Kiev also actively discussed the possibility of entering into negotiations. Western media even reported that the Ukrainian offensive disrupted some unofficial negotiations in Doha, Qatar, where issues of partial discharge and mutual renunciation of strikes on energy infrastructure facilities could have been discussed. Now the Kremlin, denying such plans, declares that it does not intend to participate in any consultations until the situation in the Kursk Region is stabilized. Kyiv obviously rolls the dice, focusing inter alia on the ratings of candidates in the upcoming US presidential elections, where the replacement of Joseph Biden with Kamala Harris has sharply equalized the chances of the Democratic and Republican nominees. The Ukrainian President’s Office understands the risks of Donald Trump coming to power, who advocates a speedy peaceful settlement and sends positive signals to Vladimir Putin, and seeks to support Kamala Harris’s ambitions grassroots. Meanwhile, Moldova has the borderline situation. Proximity to the Ukrainian-Russian military theater and indirect participation in the conflict (as a transit and buffer territory confronting Russia at this stage) coupled with ongoing military alignment with NATO may lead to increased instability, despite any peaceful assurances. On the other hand, the actions of PAS and its international patrons indicate an intention to prevent escalation, at least until the end of the second round of the presidential elections, where Maia Sandu, unlike Volodymyr Zelensky, will try to win in conditionally democratic way, i.e. without using the levers of martial law and a state of emergency. In this sense, the ruling regime will avoid conflict scenarios on the Dniester, until domestic political relevance or the situation in Ukraine require otherwise. In turn, Moldovan people generally also hope that the stand-down trend in relation to the republic will work as long as possible.