Does the Moldovan State Project Have a Future?

Victor ENI

In the post-Soviet period, Moldova passed a rather challenging and winding path, where failures were much more tangible than successes. Therefore, the question of whether it can survive as a sovereign and independent state entity is asked more and more frequently

The annual celebration of the Independence Day starts today. This year, it was decided to celebrate the date in style by booking the Great National Assembly Square for a three-day cultural programme. Famous national and foreign artists will perform on the capital’s stage. The other day, premier Dorin Recean invited citizens to visit the center of Chisinau to mark the main public holiday. In his opinion, “we will all honor peace, prosperity and national unity together”, and this day “should help us strengthen society to obtain a very clear goal - to achieve prosperity here at home”. Obviously, politicians should make such eloquent speeches, but we have not seen such pompousness in practice throughout the entire period of Moldova’s modern history. And here is the most recent example, which our readers and even our editorial office may take differently, but this does not make it any less illustrative. So, the day before, a number of initiative groups and political parties celebrated the 80th anniversary of the Iasi-Chisinau operation, which they see as a symbol of liberation from occupation and return of peace to the Moldovan land. The central authorities, as well as a part of the population, simply missed this date, because they obviously do not perceive the events of those years as something associated with the liberation operation. There was probably a geopolitical background as well - no one was willing to play along with such narratives in order not to be suspected of hidden sympathies for the Kremlin. This case clearly demonstrates the lack of unity among both political elites and citizens. Probably only Recean knows how one can pursue development goals in the present amid such disunity over the country’s past. But let’s return to Independence Day. This year such a long format of celebration with an intense cultural programme is not accidental – voters need to properly relax before the final stage of the election race. Despite the fact that the date is not milestone or jubilee, this time the government spent a lot on celebrations. The total budget is about 10 million lei, ten times more than five years ago. Therefore, there will certainly be no shortage of colorful and spectacular events in the near future, as the 33rd anniversary takes place amid the start of the official election campaign. Given that the CEC is accepting documents for candidate registration until 31 August, we have already seen a parade of lavish events with the official nomination of candidates, including incumbent president Maia Sandu. By the way, the very fact that about 20 people have decided to participate in the race testifies to the confusion of Moldovan society, which, in the absence of an optimal choice and the failures of past ‘pro-European’ and ‘pro-Moldovan’ authorities, is ready to turn to a variety of ideas and political projects. Of course, the ruling regime will not miss the opportunity to exploit administrative resources for Sandu’s PR, even if she is ill with a coronavirus, and therefore will synchronize the official celebrations with the electoral programme of the head of state. After all, the festive atmosphere is probably the most appropriate moment to once again make voters feel good about the European integration referendum and the need to make the “only right” choice among the presidential candidates. In this sense, the authorities, admittedly, have a rather strict electoral tactic, based on the slightly faded but still mainstream European integration theme. At the same time, all the other participants of the race have obvious problems in overcoming the agenda set by the president. Alas, the acute socio-economic issues and other topical problems, closely linked to PAS and personally to Maia Sandu, have not yet captured the focus of public attention. The problems are still there. The latest foreign trade data for the first half of the year show another 12.8% decline in exports compared to the same indicators of the previous year. At the same time, the decline is observed in all groups of countries –  in the CIS, the EU, and other foreign countries. The internal state debt is growing – it has already exceeded 43.9 billion lei, having increased by more than 4 billion lei since the beginning of the year. But the main problem is the fact that for 33 years our country has failed to come close to the indicators of the Soviet period in terms of economic development, industry, agriculture and job creation. A good reason to reflect on the eve of the holidays. The most difficult and acute problem for our state is depopulation. Over the past three plus decades, the population of the republic has declined so sharply that the forecasts of international organizations now predict a rather unfavorable fate for us. More than 1.5 million people have left the country since independence, and we hold the noble first place in terms of population decline. Undoubtedly, the stability of the state and its integrity in all senses were affected by regional conflicts with varying degrees of intensity. Looking back, we can say that, despite the complexity of the situation at the time, the prospects for resolving issues with Tiraspol and Comrat were much higher in the 1990s than today. At the same time, while relations with the left bank are consistently bad, the Gagauz “Pandora’s box”, which has been stirred up by the central authorities in recent years, threatens to be activated again with unpredictable ramifications. On the scale of history, Moldova has travelled a very short, but rather complex and winding path, where failures are much more visible and tangible than successes. Breaking away from the big Soviet system, Moldovan elites undertook to create a completely new socio-political, national-cultural system based on democratic principles and market economy. Over the course of history, Moldova has tried many options and ideas, but unfortunately, we have never found a sustainable model for the development of society and the state. Now we are paying for this with sad statistics and tens of thousands of disillusioned people leaving the country every year in search of a better life for themselves and their children. The main conclusion is obvious for many people – Moldova is unable to survive as an independent, sovereign and autonomous state entity, and it has chances only as part of any large geopolitical projects and interstate structures. Having found itself outside the Soviet system and having not yet joined a similarly large-scale association, our republic is sinking in the mire of the transit historical period with zero chance of survival. The major problem is not the current political regime and whether it is worthy of staying in power, but the fact that no group of Moldovan politicians has been able to fundamentally change the situation in 33 years and to steer the state towards success. Whether our elites still have time to spare and whether they still have any ideas capable of saving the Moldovan state project is an important and urgent question, but it does not have an immediate and, most importantly, the right answer.