Christian RUSSU
The list of presidential contenders has been finalized: eleven candidates. Maia Sandu is the obvious favorite, with both the use of administrative resources and the ongoing conflicts among the opposition in her favor. Even so, the outcome of the race is still difficult to call predetermined
Recently, the Central Electoral Commission drew an important intermediate line in the election campaign by determining the final list of presidential candidates, their symbols and their positioning on the ballot paper. By this time, in fact, the strategies of the main contestants have already been determined, and some pre-election setups are also emerging.
There are eleven lucky beggars who will be vying for votes on 20 October, including:
- Alexandr Stoianoglo (nominated by PSRM);
- Maia Sandu (PAS candidate);
- Renato Usatii (Our Party);
- Vasile Tarlev (Future of Moldova Party);
- Irina Vlah (independent candidate);
- Ion Chicu (Party of Development and Consolidation of Moldova);
- Andrei Nastase (independent candidate);
- Octavian Ticu (Together Bloc);
- Victoria Furtuna (independent candidate);
- Tudor Ulianovschi (independent candidate);
- Natalia Morari (independent candidate).
As we can see, the options are quite diverse, and the authorities are already trumping this as proof of their democracy and pluralism. There are indeed a lot of registered candidates, given the fact that less than half of them have a real chance. However, no matter what the PAS tops and their bribed experts say, in reality, the ruling regime has taken full advantage of the administrative opportunities for all kinds of bans and restrictions.
We may recall that initially more than eighteen political formations and initiative groups entered the race. Many of them were eliminated at the nomination stage. For example, former LDP leader Vladimir Filat was eliminated through procedural delays. Obviously, the participation of the former prime minister in the electoral campaign, to government belonged Maia Sandu, was unacceptable. I understand that face-to-face on TV debates or other joint events with own former leader are psychologically difficult and image risky. The motives of Vasile Bolea’s exclusion are also clear – it was inadmissible to let the almost official nominee of the fugitive oligarch Ilan Sor participate in the elections. But Igor Munteanu, who collapsed the Together Bloc formed under the supervision of PAS, seems to have been simply avenged: he was allowed to collect signatures in order to be tellingly “kicked over”.
By the way, eleven candidates are no record at all. In the 2016 elections, for example, there were twelve at the start. The comparison is relevant only in the sense that in the past they were eliminated after registration. Now the sample ballot paper has been approved, and its subsequent changes are unlikely. And, I emphasize, the number of participants will be the main argument in favor of the fact that the current authorities and the Central Electoral Commission allegedly did not interfere in the elections and did not abuse lobbying.
I predict that these wording we will later see in the reports of international observers from European Union countries, as well as in the reviews of the OSCE and the Council of Europe. None of them will mention the violations of legislation by the president, although they are obvious. Maia Sandu is a candidate of a political party, which contradicts the constitutional requirements for the president to be apolitical. She is holding campaign meetings and campaigning as the incumbent head of state, without taking a leave of absence during the elections. Although even her chief of staff Andrei Spinu fulfilled this legal requirement.
The nomination of opposition candidates was so calm and predictable for Sandu’s campaign headquarters that they must have effortlessly compiled a list of measures to neutralize them. Alexandr Stoianoglo became the first registered candidate. Although they initially tried to present him as the “united opposition candidate”, in fact only the Party of Socialists supported him. Thus, voters will see a PSRM star on the ballot paper next the former Prosecutor General’s name. And this is a problem, because not all of Stoianoglo’s supporters have a positive attitude to the Socialists, and even less to their leader; besides, as if his intentional permanent stay next to the candidate deprives him of the opportunity to appeal to the numerous non-politicized electorate. Dodon’s full-fledged involvement is a gift for Maia Sandu and her team, because the antidote to the PSRM leader has long been found, and his moves put Stoianoglo in the crosshairs of the PAS guns.
Even with the withdrawal of Vasile Bolea, the opposition candidates were still in the camp of the “sworn” enemy of the regime, Ilan Sor. In the near future, the media will actively brand Victoria Furtuna, who managed to collect a sufficient number of voters’ signatures on her own, with this status. It is also extremely favorable for the ruling party to see “Kremlin hands” in the opponents’ camp. Vasile Tarlev and Irina Vlah will play such a role. Of course, the defeated but still dangerous Vladimir Plahotniuc has not gone anywhere. Tudor Ulianovschi will be the embodiment of everything bad that is associated with the former puppeteer, according to the idea of political technologists. Plans for Renato Usatii have also been written for a long time: “a blabbermouth and a swindler with dubious capitals”. Similar plan for with Natalia Morari. There is no need to invent anything: thanks to the pro-government media, Vyacheslav Platon’s faults in the Morari 2024 project will soon become visible even to ignorant old ladies from remote villages.
But the war that is raging among the opposition candidates plays more into Maia Sandu’s hands than anything else. Ilan Sor is opposed by Alexandr Stoianoglo and Igor Dodon, whose positions are endangered from the part of Renato Usatii, against whom, in turn, Natalia Morari and her child’s father are actively fighting.
Against this background, it might seem that the incumbent president does not even need to make a fuss, or even accept the recommendations of human rights activists who are worried about Sandu’s participation in official public events that reek of electoral odor. However, the arrogance and conceit emanating from Maia Sandu during her campaign actions suggests that she does not intend to listen to anyone and will continue her campaign in the same way, at least in the first round. She will entrust the struggle with the competitors to her team.
Will the president’s tactics be successful? It is highly likely, unless her anti-rating hits another bottom. Otherwise, the chances of the opposition candidates are multiplied, and we may be in for some surprises in the protest vote, on which the result of the second round largely depends. Judging by some closed polls, the leaders of the opposition list are neck and neck with the incumbent president. Alexandr Stoianoglo leaves her behind: 42% against 38%. So, even the favorable conditions and gnawing rivals may not help Sandu to be re-elected for the next term.
