How Does Trump’s Presidency Threaten Moldova?

Unlike Kamala Harris, Trump’s presidency presents the winds of change that could hit back Moldova’s ruling regime

Semen ALBU, RTA: Although the outcome of the election campaign in Moldova attracted much attention of the world community this time due to its paradoxes, when the candidate who won on the territory of the country eventually lost, and in addition even gave rise to a meme about the ‘Moldovan diaspora’, it is obvious that the main event of the week was the US presidential election. The result was in many ways a sensation - contrary to predictions, Donald Trump won such a landslide victory over Kamala Harris that the Democrats had no choice but to quickly concede defeat. I can assume that our ruling elite is not at all delighted with the results of the voting overseas. The expected presidency of Harris promised an extension of the current political line of the United States with minimal changes. And this was extremely favorable and convenient for Maia Sandu and PAS, who have excellent relations with the current American administration. This is confirmed not only by the two visits of the US Secretary of State to Chisinau in recent years, but also by Sandu’s personal meetings with Joe Biden, who honored her with very flattering compliments. Besides, in general, traditionally Democrats are responsible for the Moldovan direction in the US foreign policy. American agencies and NGOs that have worked with our government are filled with people from or supporters of the Democrat Party. For instance, the Soros Foundation, with whom our top officials have special ties, as we know, even though Maia Sandu does not go public with her frequent contacts with the son of the odious billionaire. Of course, it will work when there are “friends” in the White House. Trump represents the wind of change, and not the most pleasant for Europe as a whole, and our region in particular. That is why the EU partners reacted almost hysterically. Yesterday, about fifty European leaders, including Sandu, by the way, came to Budapest to decide how to move on. In fact, it is clear why Brussels is so afraid of the new US leader. During Trump’s first term, there was a lot of tensions between them, which noticeably spoilt relations and provoked a crisis in NATO. Now, this well-known Euro-Atlantic troublemaker has not become more amenable or soft: on the contrary, during the campaign he promised, for example, to “restore the trade balance” by imposing duties on EU goods. For the export-oriented economies of the Union’s countries, which have already suffered from sanctions and energy disasters, this will be a powerful blow from which it will be difficult to recover. In general, Trump is an ideological enemy for the European bureaucracy, which is almost entirely composed of globalists, ultra-liberals, fans of the “woke-agenda”, and so on. What about Moldova? The new head of the USA is a factor of unpredictability and a lot of risks for our leadership. Of course, the Democrats will retain their influence in the republic, and it is unlikely that the appointment of the yet-to-be-reached Ambassador Kelly Adams-Smith, nominated by Biden, will be rescinded. But Trump’s foreign policy activity, if it corresponds to his pre-election statements by even a fraction, can significantly change Moldova’s geostrategic attitude. Firstly, Ukraine. We have all seen the statements about “ending the war in 24 hours”. This is, of course, an exaggeration, but the new master of the White House has a very pronounced and strong determination to end the conflict. A few days have passed since the vote, and the Western media are already publishing various insights into how the freeze will take place. If the U.S. now really shows interest in the deal, the probability of cessation of hostilities is very high. And here the problems come in - both for Ukraine and for us. The neighbors will write for themselves, but for Moldova the cessation of the war will entail an inevitable weakening of attention and termination of “geopolitical” advances on the European integration path. It is not a secret that all our successes in the rapprochement with the EU are dictated exclusively by the Ukrainian conflict - together with Kyiv we received both candidacy and opening of accession negotiations. All for the sake of quickly outlining the sphere of influence and tearing us away from Russia. Now this may change. Then - the deal is possible only taking into account the interests of Russia, which requires recognition of its interests in Ukraine and Moldova. If this happens, our country with the current foreign policy course will remain in a transit zone, with no prospects of joining the EU, and even less NATO, with all the ensuing consequences: political, diplomatic, investment, etc. Besides, it is not excluded that the Transnistrian issue will be considered when solving the Ukrainian issue. PAS, as we know, has never managed to draw up a reintegration plan, which means that it will be determined for us - and it is unlikely that our authorities will like it. Trump’s success will inevitably reinforce the trend of strengthening right-wing forces on the continent, and a possible cooling of relations with the US will force Europe to become independent even faster. It is very telling that the new American president has not even taken office yet, while in Germany the ruling coalition has already disintegrated and a severe political crisis is looming, promising rapid re-elections. And now let’s summarize: political turmoil in the EU’s leading countries; the continued deterioration of the Union’s economic health due to US duties and the need to single-handedly pull military support or post-war reconstruction of Ukraine; the growing “right-wing wave” of politicians skeptical of the community’s enlargement; the need to sharply increase military spending to fill the post-US vacuum. Can we assert that the real European integration of Moldova in such conditions, if not kick the bucket, will get on the brake and will happen after 2030, which is propagandized by the authorities now as the term of completion? Easily. Can we predict that with all the problems the desire to get two more beggarly problematic members will sharply decrease? Even easier. But to imagine what the current gang will do without the European bugaboo is difficult even for me. By the way, thank Sandu for the failed referendum on EU membership on the territory of the country - if necessary, it will provide Eurosceptics with additional arguments that Moldova itself is not very eager to join. Another crucial point: the evolution of the US towards focusing on its own problems on the one hand, and shifting the center of gravity of foreign policy to the Pacific region on the other. Trump and his entourage make this particularly clear, hinting that Europe should solve its problems on its own and ensure its security on its own, not at the expense of the Americans, who want to redistribute resources and give up “charity”. This is also a bad sign for Moldova, because the USA is one of the main sponsors for the last years, the second most important after the EU. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, they have given our country almost 800 million dollars, and we should not expect such generosity from the pragmatic Trump. Of course, this is all hypothetical speculation: we do not know what the new American leader is actually going to do, and even if he has radical steps in his plans, whether he will be able to make them, given the inevitable opposition of the deep state and part, perhaps even the majority, of Congress. But in general, we are entering an era of uncertainty, where the short-term bets made by our authorities in foreign and domestic policy may turn out to be not that clever and far-sighted.