Expert: The Ruling Party Is on the Verge of Collapse

As experience shows, personnel rotations always become a kind of stress test for PAS, threatening to stir up intra-clan struggle

Sergiu CEBAN, RTA: The main topic of recent weeks has been the reshuffle in the government, announced in the period between the two rounds of presidential elections. At first, many people thought about some nominal and as discreet as possible dismissals of several ministers. But the process protracted until today, which is a sure sign of the problems emerged. Maia Sandu postponed the meeting with representatives of various parties initially planned for last Thursday. The event became known after a meeting of the Supreme Security Council, where the head of state announced her intention to hold consultations on the fight against political corruption. At the same time, three parties have already refused to communicate with Sandu, recognizing the corresponding image risks and the re-elected president’s attempts to strengthen her highly questionable legitimacy. Obviously, this initiative looks very much like a cheap political-technological trick to parody a broad general political dialogue on this fundamental issue. We think that other political forces understand perfectly well that the authorities want to involve them not so much into the coalition format of governing the country as into collective political responsibility on the eve of the decisive parliamentary elections. What happened and why did the post-election plans start to lose momentum and change hastily? Most likely, everything is connected with the highly demanded, but at the same time unexpected resignation of the Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development Andrei Spinu. According to sources, deputies and chairmen of PAS territorial organizations learned about his resignation from the cabinet and the party from social networks. As the experience of recent years proves, despite its monopoly position, any, even technical, reshuffles in the authorities cause serious internal tension within PAS. The slightest disturbance of balances stirs up intra- and government-supervised clans. One part of them does not want to lose control over the sources of supplies, while the other part sees in personnel reshuffles a window of opportunity to intercept access to financial flows and levers of influence. Recall that earlier they had already tried to weaken one of the most influential clans, deeply incorporated in the PAS. As a result, after Natalia Gavrilita resigned from office, Andrei Spinu left the government alongside with her. However, only for six months. And his comeback in the summer of 2023 was very convincing: people apparently loyal to Spinu began to appear in the management of state institutions, and Prime Minister Dorin Recean could do nothing about it. History repeats itself. Firstly, the dismissal of specific people from their posts is already a serious challenge for the influential groups behind them in the regime. Secondly, if it is not a question of replacing personalities, but of transferring responsibility to a completely different clan, this will inevitably lead to internal tensions. The previous time they had to involve Maia Sandu as an arbiter, who in the dead of night held talks with the party activists, persuading everyone to compromise. But the internal political context was completely different then, and to what extent the president’s mediation will help reconcile the competing groups is an open question. Of course, the main marker is the behavior of Andrei Spinu, whose abrupt decision reflects the irreconcilability of bargaining within the clans in PAS. The protracted personnel mess also reflects this. Surely both Maia Sandu and other key party figures realize that finally ousting Spinu could turn into big problems with the prospect of PAS gradually crumbling and resources flowing to a new political project. In addition, after the virtually failed result of the referendum vote in Moldova and then in the second round, there are the first signs of purges of PAS party structures in the regions. So, in the coming months we can expect some renewal of the leadership of the ruling party’s branches in the district centers for fear of failing the upcoming parliamentary campaign on the ground. The first to get laid off were five members of the district council of Rezina, who were expelled from the PAS ranks. As the number of such cases increases, the tension between the central and regional levels of the party will also grow, as the search for extremists only among the local elites looks, to put it mildly, unfair. But, to all appearances, the party leadership is ready to sacrifice small figures on the ground rather than provoke a conflict within the parliamentary faction, which is fraught with the risk of finally “falling apart”. Nevertheless, despite Maia Sandu’s re-election, wars in the ruling party will continue to stir up due to the objective understanding that not all current MPs will definitely be in the future parliament. Consequently, someone will have to part with a privileged position, political protection and reduced income. And this is a perfect background for intra-species struggles, stigmatization of individual people’s elected representatives and party functionaries, etc. - all means will be used to get, if not in the top ten, at least in the top twenty of the PAS electoral list. While the main contenders will fight for a place under the sun, the second and third echelon will start to look for alternative projects. In fact, Andrei Spinu has already conducted a session of political desacralization of PAS, but the mass exodus from its ranks will depend on how the party will eventually enter the active phase of the electoral race. One cannot ignore the political instincts of many officials both in Chisinau and in the districts - they have always been able to abandon a sinking ship in time. As a result, all this puts the PAS leadership before a serious choice and the need to make monumental efforts to preserve at least a semblance of internal unity. Taking into account that time may play tricks on the PAS leadership, government-supervised experts have started speculating about the possibility of holding snap parliamentary elections. The motive is clear - on the wave of the success of the presidential election and the introduction of amendments to the constitution to try to get the best possible result. In fact, it is rather logical, since in a year’s time the political regime is unlikely to boast of any serious successes, and there is no looming news, such as the opening of negotiations on the EU accession. Consequently, it will be extremely difficult for PAS to mobilize its voters for another “country’s salvation” by next autumn. But public conversations prove that there is no unanimous opinion on snap elections. Besides, one should think that the party clans fear that a rapid and poorly prepared election campaign can both unite the PAS and accelerate irreversible centrifugal processes.