Moldova at Crossroads: How Ideology Tripped Over the National Interest

Minister Parlicov’s forced trip to Russia for negotiations with Gazprom can be considered as a proof of failure of one of the main ideological dogmas of PAS – “Moldova’s energy independence”

Semen ALBU, RTA: The Energy Minister’s hurried trip to St. Petersburg has certainly created a stir in our country, and many people have had their minds blown. Have you ever seen anything like this: a representative of the pro-European government, which has confidently set a course towards Europe and has sort of broken off any contacts with Putin’s Russia, suddenly goes to actually bow to the head of the Russian gas monopoly. The latter, as if to mock, puts a well-known and, by the way, banned in Moldova symbol on the lapel of his jacket during the negotiations. And how pleasant it was for our regime and its horde of bribed experts and journalists to criticize Moscow all this time! With their own hands, they broke all ties, exploited Russophobic slogans, joined Western sanctions regimes, harassed Russian citizens at the Chisinau airport, expelled Russian diplomats by the dozens and made a lot of other unfriendly actions and statements. Moreover, Maia Sandu and PAS personally declared themselves the “liberators” of Moldova from Russian influence, having built almost the entire state mythology of recent years on this. And at the center of this mythology is the ‘reconquest’ of the main lever of pressure on the republic from Russian, namely the energy one. Thanks to the money of our partners and citizens, who are forced to pay a noticeably higher utility tariff, we now do not receive gas from the Russian Federation. Although, in fact, we do receive it, but since according to the documents it is not Russian, everything suits everyone. The main thing is that an ideological and geopolitical victory has been won, and the authorities can attribute a “historic” deed to themselves. Being already “energy independent”, official Chisinau played a dangerous game with Russia. And although the first round of this game ended in total failure - I am referring to the autumn of 2022, when it was necessary to return to supplies from MoldGRES - that experience seems to have taught nothing. And our authorities continued to take property from Gazprom under the pretext of fulfilling the requirements of the EU Third Energy Package, threatened to expropriate Moldovagaz, conducted a very peculiar audit, which resulted in the historical debt to Russia shrinking to just over 1% of the previous amount. Needless to say, Moscow did not recognize this audit, but until now it has been ignored - who cares about the opinion of the “aggressor country”? In terms of energy, the PAS behaved very frivolously and shortsightedly during all the years of its rule, like a bull in a china shop, thinking that the consequences would never come. Apparently, at some point the ruling party thought that it had found the perfect balance: the Russian gas for the controlled territory was refused with half a heartbeat, which made it possible to carry out the political and informational manipulations described above. But blue fuel continues to flow to the left bank, which makes it possible to produce very cheap electricity for the right bank at the local power plant. How cheap? About 4-5 times compared to the minimum prices in the EU countries, I am not talking about the rates during peak hours. And the “shameful” fact that the “separatist region” is supplied with “enemy gas” is disguised by the concern for our citizens in Transnistria with only a small addendum that the situation is extremely favorable for the rest of Moldova. The regime must have thought only six months ago that this arrangement would remain in place for a long time. What if the Russian-Ukrainian transit contract expires at the end of the year and they are not going to re-sign it - you can always buy gas on the Russian-Ukrainian border. What if the gas metering station in Sudzha is seized - after all, pumping continues. What if Gazprom still does not book capacity along the Trans-Balkan corridor... In general, you got it. No signals could shake the confidence that everything will continue as before, and therefore it is possible to stand idle and only continue bickering with Russia. And all because the authorities relied upon several assumptions, and the main one was that Moscow would not leave Transnistria without gas in any case, where there are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens, its own military, and a seemingly controlled regime. And now that this whole house of cards of ill-conceived maneuvers and plans has started to collapse in recent weeks, it is necessary to break the entire ideological basis of the regime and send Parlicov to Russia, at the same time renouncing the legend of “energy sovereignty”. Now, of course, all representatives of the regime and even Igor Grosu, who used to catch “separatists” at the polling stations, have justified themselves by putting on a mask of genuine concern for the Transnistrian population, which will face a humanitarian catastrophe without gas. One can agree with the latter - it is really easy to imagine how without gas supply factories will shut down, social facilities will stop working, and so on. Unless for some time MoldGRES will generate electricity for local needs on the coal it has stored - but this is unlikely to save much. But I see a great deal of deceit on the part of the “yellows”, because the crisis in Transnistria will provoke no less large-scale upheavals on the right bank. Firstly, there will be no cheap electricity from MoldGRES. And then it will have to be bought at the stock exchange, where prices are now breaking records. And this means an immediate and painful increase in the tariff, which will be extremely undesirable for the regime, which, having once again messed up with forecasts, is now forced to raise the cost of gas for the population, although a couple of months ago the Prime Minister vowed not to do so. Secondly, there will be a flood of people from the left bank, and it is not very clear how to administer it all. Not to mention what will happen inside the region. All these things are hard to predict, and hardly anyone has seriously prepared for them, even if it was claimed otherwise. Thirdly, economic losses for us due to the total reduction of trade operations from the region and the disruption of established chains. As a result of all these points, and not only because of the pretense of concern for the Transnistrians, we had to make this unpleasant and paradoxical contact with Miller. And the Russians in the negotiations, as we can see, naturally bring us back to the already seemingly solved issues, as with the same debt, hinting that we will not be able to get rid of it. And it turns out that we are again brought to the brink of a catastrophe, and one that Moldova has not faced for a long time. But all this could have been avoided, it was enough not to mess things up. But even this is an impossible task for PAS.