Dorin Recean’s Resignation “Was Fueled with Gas”?

Sergiu CEBAN

The ongoing problems in the energy sector show that the authorities are simply unable to effectively manage this industry

The end of autumn, which did not foreshadow anything special in political terms, unexpectedly turned into large-scale risks in the energy sector, threatening to become an acute crisis. One should think that the long-held problem had been carefully hidden behind the scenery of Maia Sandu’s advertising banners. Therefore, as soon as the elections were over, the unprepared public learnt a lot of new things. Now on the cusp of the cold season, out of the blue, Dorin Recean scares us with a “hard winter”. It is still difficult to say what is really going on in the sidelines of power, what are the reasons and contradictions. Only snippets of information are made public, which does not allow us to form a clear picture of the problem that has barely emerged from the murky waters of PAS politics. Therefore, we have to piece together everything and try to understand how it all could have happened, where this story could turn and how seriously it will shake the position of the current regime. Victor Parlicov’s trip to Russia itself proved that the difficulties are so serious that it is urgent to go to Miller and humiliatingly ask him to respect the agreement signed with Andrei Spinu in autumn 2021. At the same time, it is not certain that the minister brought something very reassuring from St. Petersburg, and we can only guess about the length of the list of the Russians’ counterclaims. It is obvious that only for pre-election purposes, the authorities deliberately all year long have been feeding the public with a possible reduction in tariffs closer to winter, when Spinu’s “expensive gas” will run out. At the same time, the real state of affairs was carefully concealed. As a result, Moldovagaz accumulated another enormous debt due to tariff deviations, which was a consequence of the unwillingness to make adjustments smoothly for fear of political consequences of such decisions. But it was dangerous to keep accumulating, so they decided to quickly, before the New Year holidays, shift everything on consumers, guising the unpopular decision with another story about hybrid attacks and the Kremlin’s energy blackmail. ANRE approved an increase in the price of natural gas to 15.5 lei per cubic meter, i.e. 3.4 lei more than the current price. With VAT, the final price is 16.74 lei. The motivation for such actions is more than banal: a significant increase in purchase prices on the international markets. Besides, we are already being morally prepared for the fact that the tariffs may rise further, not given the fact that after the current increase, heat energy bills will rise and the whole economy will face a chain of price hikes. After the presidential elections and the referendum, the PAS, one way or another, is under pressure of gradual delegitimization, so any social upheaval will only intensify this trend and lead to growing discontent with the ruling party. With the energy crisis overturned, the opposition has already smelled blood and will clearly try to take advantage of a case to crack down on the Recean government amid the parliamentary election campaign, which is gaining momentum. The same socialists have already prepared documents to initiate the resignation of the government, accusing it of failing to take effective measures to protect citizens and the economy from energy disasters. According to the PSRM, all this will lead to an increase in inflation, aggravation of the already deplorable socio-economic situation, and a further rise in prices for goods and services. Moreover, the current crisis cannot be solved without resetting the entire political system, which is why the party insists on the need to hold snap parliamentary elections as soon as possible. Given that the Communist and Socialist bloc has the number of deputies required by the Constitution to initiate a parliamentary vote of (non)confidence in the government, the PAS faction will have the last word. Of course, this puts the authorities in a twofold position. On the one hand, seeing how many speculations are circulating around the energy topic, it is necessary to speak out and give its view on the problem. On the other hand, Dorin Recean’s report on the parliamentary rostrum is not sure to be convincing and not ludicrous. His recent appearances on the platforms became rather an occasion for irony, and also proved again, to put it mildly, the very strange peculiarities of the current head of the government. The situation in the energy sector is undoubtedly also a consequence of the intra-species struggle in PAS. An important factor in Andrei Spinu’s resignation was probably the ousting of one of the political groups of influence from the energy niche and the attempt to seize control over it by Dorin Recean and his associate Minister Parlicov. Such a redistribution of spheres may eventually lead to unpredictable consequences, up to and including Recean’s resignation. The near future will show how different groups of MPs will behave: whether they will derail the PSRM initiative at the start, give it a go-ahead to publicly flog the Prime Minister and some officials, or whether the internal split in PAS will lead to Maia Sandu being forced to sacrifice Recean. Whatever the outcome of internal squabbles in the ruling party, the fact remains that we are approaching the end of the year with extremely high risks in the energy sector. And let the ministerial officials try to damp public anxiety by promising that the government will definitely intervene and increase compensation for the population in case of crisis scenarios. After all, they still have to admit that the state’s available resources are insufficient and that they rely on the help of development partners. Let us be frank: this government is afraid of an abrupt change of the long-standing energy outlet, when it was possible to loudly declare energy independence, while at the same time buying electricity from Russian free gas at a below-market price. Anyway, it turns out that in fact, all these years it was Gazprom and Russia that subsidized electricity tariffs in Moldova. And now, on the eve of parliamentary elections, Moscow seems to have decided to replay everything, and this puts Chisinau before a very difficult test, with no time for reorganization. The necessary gas reserves have not been made, there is no agreement with MGRES. And if all this laps on the head of the present regime, there are big doubts that it will be able to cope. And they will have only themselves to blame for everything, as well as personal responsibility. In the run-up to the elections, such a sharp reversal of the situation could be politically fatal for PAS. The ongoing problems in the energy sector shows that the authorities are simply unable to effectively manage this sector, and it seems that we will be buffeted by ill-considered decisions every year. We are once again witnessing the lack of the necessary planning skills and professional foresight among our officials. Due to the management flaws accumulated by PAS over the last three years, the energy system is approaching a state of “stagnation”, when there is neither the strength nor the ability to solve one problem after another, and the “Augean stables” will have to be cleared by radical measures, including personnel.