“Another Adverse Signal from Romania”

Christian RUSSU

Despite various tricks and manipulations, the main political players in Bucharest significantly screwed up at the end of the parliamentary elections, confirming the trend towards a change of power elites in favor of nationalist forces

The epic with requests to the Constitutional Court to verify the votes in the first round of the presidential election or to cancel the results ended up with nothing. The recount was conducted mundanely and decided to leave everything in force. Marcel Ciolacu failed to catch up with Elena Lasconi, who will fight this week against Calin Georgescu. All this demonstrated the real weakness of the current coalition government represented by the Social Democrats (PSD) and the National Liberals (PNL). The most they managed to achieve was to postpone the approval of the results of the first stage of the presidential elections in order to save face in the parliamentary elections. Many of Marcel Ciolacu’s supporters believed their leader would have a chance to get back into the race for head of state and actively persuaded the undecided. The reluctance to admit defeat and let their leader go was evident even after the results of the parliamentary vote were announced, when Ciolacu himself asked for his resignation. He was returned to the chairmanship by a majority of party members to take responsibility for losing the confidence of a quarter of the existing electorate. Elena Lasconi’s Save Romania Union party, formally positioned as the opposition to the PSD-NLP alliance and the only hope of the adherers of Euro-Atlanticism, lost even more - 30% of voters.  However, the most serious failure awaited the national-liberal party, which was formally supported by the ruling PAS in Moldova. 50 mandates in the House of Representatives and 22 in the Senate - this is twice as bad as the indicators of the last campaign. As a result, all these three parties, which in different configurations formed the power structures of Romania in the last four years, suffered a serious defeat, although not yet fatal. It may be recalled that in the first year the National Liberals and the Save Romania Union tried to rule together, and after their disagreement, the National Liberals and the Social Democrats formed a coalition. At different times the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians “assisted” them. As one can understand, during this time mutual claims and accusations between these three parties have accumulated so much that the creation of a new and, most importantly, sustainable alliance between them seems troubled, and there are no other options. Imagine the reconciliation between Filat, Ghimpu and Plahotniuc after all that happened between them. In case someone falls out of the equation, it is possible to allow the formation of an unstable coalition involving the Hungarian alliance, but why would the latter need it in the current configuration? At the same time, the Liberals, who have ruled for four years, are already thinking about going into opposition, because if they choose the “easy chairs” now, they may not get into the next parliament at all. It is noteworthy that in our country Marcel Ciolacu’s Social Democrats got one of the worst results, not least because Ion Ceban was busy with the formation of MAN’s regional structures. In turn, the ruling party, realizing the futility of working with the national liberals, unofficially devoted resources to supporting the candidacy of Lasconi and her Save Romania Union, of which some PAS deputies like Lilian Carp are members. Before the second round, PAS functionaries openly called to prevent Romania from slipping into reaction through the election of Calin Georgescu. The desire to show solidarity with the position of the Brussels bureaucracy in this situation proved to be more important than common sense, the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and simply the risk of “betting on the wrong horse”. The extent to which this decision was short-sighted will be seen next Monday, when the new Romanian president settles in Cotroceni. And the biggest blow for our authorities will not be a shout from across the Prut, not sanctions, but a complete lack of attention. No, Romanian fellow citizens and compatriots across the Prut will not be forgotten, but the Chisinau elite, which has been spoilt by the attention of everyone and everything, should prepare for hard times. Negotiations with Orban, Putin and Trump on the fate of the region may become a reality in the coming months and a nightmare for the authorities in Chisinau and Kyiv. The continuation of the policy of rejection towards the clear winner of the last elections, George Simion, will also have an effect. After all, now he is not a marginalized person who can be simply dismissed, but the leader of the second political force in the new parliament and even a potential member of the new coalition government. It is possible! At the same time, he is still persona non grata in Moldova and Ukraine. It is not the first time for the Kyiv leadership to remove unwanted foreign politicians from sanctions lists, but it is terra incognita for ours. It is one thing to give up  own language, and another to give up claims to defend  own territorial integrity, which is quite unseemly. What is the main signal of the Romanian elections for Chisinau? Even if we put aside all the blunders, incompetence and abuses, the ruling pro-European force in our country is doomed to leave the center stage. And the main reason for this is the shift of priorities towards foreign policy to the detriment of domestic affairs. As we can see, sooner or later the electorate gets fed up loud slogans and promises of a bright future and prefers “the fridge, not the TV”. Becoming one of the other political forces with a rating comparable to Ilan Sor’s structure is the medium-term prospect for PAS. In the light of the upcoming parliamentary elections, the events beyond the Prut should make us think hard about finding coalition partners to retain power. The creation of regional MAN chapters, which is neglected by the ruling party, can be seen in this context. Ion Ceban, the competent manager, is destined for the role of a draught horse that will have to drag PAS into parliament and then disappear from the political arena like many others. However, in its plans PAS does not fully take into account the consequences that will befall our country if the power configuration in the neighboring country is reformatted. In this case, the “Romanian Charles de Gaulle” will soon be much more popular in Moldova than Maia Sandu in Romania, which will only accelerate the process of changing elites and narratives in Chisinau.