Moldova Is Going Down to a Political and Energy Crisis

Sergiu CEBAN

Judging by the way the situation in the energy sector is developing, everyone is preparing for the worst scenario. Against this background, the contradictions between different groups of influence of the ruling regime are becoming increasingly acute

So, yesterday, Dorin Recean went ahead of the curve by announcing a number of high-profile resignations in the energy sector. Minister Victor Parlicov, the head of the state enterprise Energocom Victor Binzari, and a member of the supervisory board of Moldovagaz Sergiu Tofilat were dismissed. Recean appointed himself as interim energy minister. He sees no fault in the current situation, as he allegedly trusted the responsible officials, who eventually failed him and brought the situation to the limit. The government has now approached parliament with a proposal to introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector. The demand for Parlicov’s resignation is motivated by the fact that he was in charge of the energy sector and recognized the mistakes made that led to the crisis. The dismissal of Energocom’s director-general is explained by the fact that the company did not buy gas when it was possible, citing bureaucratic procedures. As for Tofilat, the prime minister said that, although he had no authority, he nevertheless blocked purchases at a time when the market price of energy resources was the most favorable. Such abrupt maneuvers of the head of the government are most likely explained by the fact that at the end of last week and the beginning of this week Recean himself was seriously threatened with resignation. After all, logically, he is responsible for the operation of the entire system of executive authorities, especially in such a strategic area as energy. But the head of the Cabinet cleverly removed this burden, sacrificed the figure of the minister and defiantly took everything into his own hands, when big problems are almost unavoidable. What can I say, these are the traditions of our politics, when admitting mistakes and resigning is a sign of weakness, and blaming a trusted person is a “powerful stride”. While we are at it, it would be reasonable to urgently convene the Supreme Security Council to define a plan of operational measures to minimize the crisis that unexpectedly emerged in early December. But, alas, Maia Sandu is busy with the election campaign in neighboring Romania (judging by the latest news, in vain). While the head of state is on a business trip, all the perpetrators of yesterday’s turmoil continue to publicly exchange jabs and shift responsibility onto each other, unwilling to become scapegoats before the impending energy storm. The contradictions between the various groups of influence on the president are perhaps for the first time in recent years manifested so clearly. Therefore, it is far from certain that Dorin Recean will still be able to hold on to the prime minister’s chair, and the opposition forces will not fail to exploit this managerial impotence of the ruling regime. Given that there is still no contract with MoldGRES, the Prime Minister has already instructed Moldelectrica and Energocom to ensure the import of electricity. The companies should prepare scenarios for a quick connection to the high-voltage line with Romania and coordinate with Ukraine the logistics, maintenance and repair of the Isaccea-Vulcanesti line on Ukrainian territory. In other words, everyone is preparing for the worst-case scenario, while it is not clear whether MoldGRES will be able to ensure the flow from Romania if the plant goes into the minimum operation mode. And, of course, the main challenge for Chisinau is the Transnistrian region, which has been in the autonomous self-sufficiency mode for more than three decades, receiving free gas from Moscow. In case of suspension of supplies, the authorities will have to decide whether we take the left bank as a burden or try to maneuver and shift the financial and administrative dead-weight to our development partners. Opinions differ among experts: some suggest ignoring the difficult situation in which Transnistria may find itself so that its inhabitants realize the fallacy of the chosen path of secession from Moldova. Others are inclined to urgently request emergency financial aid to stabilize the situation on the left bank and thus give a huge impetus to the reintegration process. But, apparently, there is no desire in the government cabinets to take on the maintenance of the eastern districts, so even the officials responsible for the Transnistrian direction show a certain disinterest. Hence, perhaps, Tiraspol’s indignation at the claims that it has not asked for help. As a result, the office of the Transnistrian political representative accused Chisinau that the critical concerns that have arisen today in the area of natural gas supplies and energy supply are allegedly a direct consequence of the policy of the central authorities “sabotaging dialogue, ignoring the interests of the supplier and consumers, implementing unjustified restrictions on Transnistrian residents and enterprises”. All this public wrangling and exchange of negative signals, to put it mildly, does not make anyone feel better, because if even Tiraspol has broken down, we are still very far from the cherished compromise. Therefore, the left-bank authorities are also preparing for the worst and intend to introduce an economic state of emergency in the region due to the uncertainty over gas. Among other things, it is planned to switch the MoldGRES to alternative fuel in order to ensure electricity generation for 50 days for residential houses, social institutions and life-supporting organizations in Transnistria. It is clear that this whole gas case is oriented towards next year’s parliamentary elections, so the Kremlin is acting decisively and radically, even at the cost of a socio-economic blow to its key stronghold in the region. However, the solution to this extremely acute situation is unlikely to be brought any closer by the absolutely inappropriate reasoning of the “Prime Minister of Energy” Dorin Recean that the Russian Federation should withdraw its military presence and not interfere with Chisinau’s management of the territory to the left of the Dniester. If our politicians do not find the strength to realize the severity of the situation in which they have already found themselves and risk making it worse, it is quite likely that we will have to spend the New Year holidays by candlelight. And then, it seems to us, PAS will basically lose any possibility of winning the next election. Therefore, the only choice is between a bad scenario and a very bad one, there is no third option. Of course, the state of emergency is not proposed by chance, because, as we know, the PAS and the governments appointed by them manage to cope with their direct duties more or less only in conditions of “manual” rule of the country. The same Energocom will now receive the opportunity to buy gas again in a classified mode. But the fact is that for two years Energocom was made the main instrument of energy security, created favorable working conditions for it, and in the end the brainchild of the ruling regime screwed up. Although maybe they helped it to fail, if according to our tradition, purchases were made where necessary, not where it was cheaper. Regardless of the personnel decisions made by Sandu and Recean, it is clear that Moldova is plunged into a deep governmental crisis. In order to achieve party goals of re-electing the incumbent president, the country is simply plunging into internal political and energy chaos, despite the fact that ordinary citizens will suffer the greatest damage.