Moldovan Authorities Failed to Pick Up on the Wind of Change?

Sergiu CEBAN

How quickly Moldova will react in the changing reality in the region and the world will depend not only on its place in the future, but also on the availability of opportunities to overcome new challenges.  In the meantime, the authorities are blindly following the old path, as if not feeling the gusts of the geopolitical wind, which has already led to an acute energy crisis

Scrolling through the eventful news feeds, we noticed an absolutely unremarkable report by the Belarusian deputy foreign minister. According to him, from the very beginning Minsk claimed a place at the table of peace talks on Ukraine, as it is important for Belarus that the final agreements take into account its interests and provide security guarantees. We admit that this republic is a peripheral topic for us, but the motives that drive its politicians and diplomats are close and clear to us. Much has been said and written about the fact that global and regional processes have accelerated for various reasons. It is becoming clear that it is impossible to return to the old life. For this reason, the countries of a large regional perimeter, from Russia and Ukraine to their neighbors, are preparing for a pan-European realignment in order to emerge from the coming diplomatic process with the strongest positions. Moldova is, quite literally, at the epicenter of unfolding events that step by step are reshaping the reality we know. For example, on 1 January 2025, Romania will officially join the land part of the Schengen area. And the current border regime on the Prut River will still seem rather comfortable compared to the time when the external border of the European Union with all the control mechanisms will be officially established there. Moreover, watching the political twists and turns in Bucharest, one can only guess who will end up in power there and how long the internal political crisis will last if anti-system forces gain a foothold in state institutions and, especially, in the president’s office. So, we have every chance to find ourselves surrounded by neighbors with a difficult internal situation, which will inevitably impact us. Many of our foreign partners have already undergone or are undergoing domestic political transformation, which will inevitably entail a rethinking of their foreign policy line. This is a natural situation for any mature and modern state system, which adapts flexibly to the circumstances and requirements of the “environment”. The situation around Ukraine will definitely change next year. There are plenty of indicators, including the behavior of its neighboring countries, which are trying their hand as mediators. Thus, they are trying to secure favorable positions both within the framework of the settlement and post-conflict arrangements. Why are we discussing this? The point is that it seems as if our elites have never felt the gusts of the geopolitical wind, let alone the direction in which it is blowing. As it seems to us, one does not need a unique experience in the field of international affairs or a fine diplomatic instinct to catch the trajectory of the processes. How quickly Moldova will react will determine not only our place in the future, but also our ability to overcome new challenges. Let’s consider at least the country’s foreign policy course over the past few years. It has been radically changed and adapted to the realities of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the confrontation between the global West and Russia. As a result, we have almost completely adjusted ourselves to the general position of the Western coalition of states. To what extent this is in our interests today and helps us to solve the growing pile of problems is not an idle question at all. The most recent example is the looming energy default. Perhaps the most vivid confirmation of how our political class continues to live and conduct international affairs in the old system of coordinates, which loses touch with the dynamically changing reality. If someone seriously thought that one could sit quietly in one of the offices in Chisinau and wait with a stubborn face at the monitor as the guilt feeling  top-management of Gazprom will book the capacities of TurkStream for gas transit to Moldova on the night of 15-16 December, we have to disappoint them. Since it looks like naive irresponsibility. Such foreign policy blindness has already played a cruel joke on politicians of various states, who either out of inability or subjective principled stand shunned far-sighted decisions. Much more dangerous is the fact that such short-sightedness has cost entire nations and states dearly. Our country in its historical path has not always successfully emerged from external cataclysms. The Moldavian statehood was repeatedly tested for durability, that is why many historians call it “flickering”. Experience suggests that political elites should always feel the zeitgeist and show subjectivity in time. Otherwise, Moldova risks becoming an object of projection of other people’s efforts and interests. No one is urging the ruling regime to become “pro-Russian” and for officials to make weekly visits to Moscow. But to continue to take managerial decisions according to the foreign policy model of recent years threatens us with further problems, which will place a heavy burden primarily on the population. And the incentives to do so are not obvious. As this year has shown, blindly following the lead of certain transnational groups no longer converts into the enormous amounts of aid that we received in previous years. There is not much time left, and if our authorities want to harmoniously integrate themselves into the coming changes, they need to prepare today. The once popular idea that the West will drop the “iron curtain” somewhere far beyond the Dnieper is rapidly losing relevance. We are coming to realize that our regional space is more likely to become a rugged terrain without the dominant influence of one or two superpowers. It is likely that the key processes around us will be determined by a conglomerate of states. Therefore, the optimal solution may be the harmonization of the social and political structure with the trend of smooth transition of the post-Soviet region into a new natural state gaining momentum. This will require significant changes in domestic and foreign policy, rethinking the model of long-term state development, its place in the new security system and international affairs. Of course, one can stubbornly continue to adhere to one’s line, ignoring the harsh reality. But then you will have to accept the obvious risks when, under the pressure of circumstances, history will independently determine your geographical form and content.