Who Is to Solve Gas Dilemma on the Dniester?

Sergiu CEBAN

Experts tend to believe that all the parties are deliberately escalating the energy crisis on the Dniester in order to bring it to a critical phase. At the same time, Chisinau certainly had and still has technical solutions in store

This is perhaps the first time that the incumbent authorities are in such a difficult position at the end of the year. Tomorrow’s inauguration of Maia Sandu will take place amid growing protest activity of various social groups that can hardly be suspected of working for the money of Sor or other fugitive oligarchs. But the greatest concern in society is the looming energy crisis, the possibility of which has become increasingly apparent over the past week. Apparently, until 19 December there were still encouraging expectations, but then all the windows closed abruptly. Last Friday, the acting US ambassador to Moldova visited Tiraspol and seemed to bring bad news. The left bank administration then convened a meeting of the local “security council” and took additional measures in light of threats to cut off gas supplies. In addition, which was not the case in previous weeks, the central authorities were openly accused of exploiting the situation directly against the Transnistrian region. On the same day, Maia Sandu finally commented on the gas issue, although it was hardly a relief to anyone. She rejected the possibility of asking Ukraine to continue transit because “it makes no practical sense” and reiterated Russia’s obligation to deliver the contracted volumes. Although if it were that simple, Victor Parlicov would probably not have been sent to see Miller. It is obvious to everyone that gas supplies are a complex tangle of agreements, with not only calculation formulas, but also issues such as historical debt and its audit, as well as specific fuel acceptance points. Statements by the Ukrainian and Russian presidents sealed the whole story. Speaking to journalists, Putin confirmed that there would be no new contract for transit through Ukraine. Zelensky ruled out any deliveries of Russian gas through the territory of his country, including under the guise of Azerbaijani gas. However, Kiev’s readiness to pump Russian gas without the recipient paying for it, conditionally in debt, as if on the Transnistrian model, is of particular interest. Theoretically, Moscow can meet the European counterparties’ needs, as it did last week. For example, due to difficulties with payment through Gazprombank, which has fallen under US sanctions, Putin issued a decree with the wording “in connection with numerous requests from foreign gas buyers”. As a result, they were granted a deferral of payments to this bank until 1 April 2025. It is no coincidence that the Slovak Prime Minister visited the Russian capital yesterday, and specifically for negotiations on gas. By the way, this is the very example of when pan-European political solidarity fades into the background when national interests and the risk of leaving people and the economy without resources, heat and light are at stake. Our politicians, however, appear to adhere to different principles and are purposefully leading the situation towards an energy disaster. That is why experts believe that all the parties involved are deliberately escalating the situation in order to bring it to a critical state. At the same time, there is confidence that Chisinau had and still has technical solutions in store. Especially if we take into account that back in spring the media published information about an agreement between Moldova and Ukraine to continue gas supplies to Transnistria even after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian transit contract. But six months later, the plans changed for some reason, and what is on the minds of politicians will only become clear in early January. Apparently, the current plan is to provoke a crisis, and then we’ll see. There are several versions about the motives of such behavior of the republic’s leadership. The first and the main one is linked to the internal political arrangements and the rapid crumbling of the incumbent government, which will inevitably lead to a loss at the parliamentary elections. In order to cement the ratings and open some political prospects for PAS, only the method of shocks, both positive and negative, remains. By the way, in order to keep afloat a political regime of a similar format in Armenia, it was necessary to first terminate the multi-year project of the unrecognized Karabakh republic, and then make a hard break with Moscow. A series of internal political stresses experienced by the Armenian society has opened the way to such foreign policy decisions that were previously unthinkable for Yerevan. The Russian Foreign Ministry, of course, warns against using the energy crisis to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force. However, Maia Sandu herself rejected the accelerated reintegration process while Russian troops are on the left bank. But who’s going to stop them from trying to bring the conflict settlement a step closer by taking advantage of the difficult situation in the energy sector and making some political demands on Tiraspol? Especially if the European Union decides to provide assistance to the region, which, in fact, is openly stated at a high level in the EU structures. Therefore, despite the fact that there is just over a week left until the end of the year, the gas epic is clearly not coming to an end. There are too many players in this plot for it to follow only the scenario of Chisinau, Kyiv, Moscow or Brussels with Washington. Each of them can have their say and turn the process sharply. So, we are not completely sure that the Ukrainian authorities are ready to simply plunge Moldova, which is still one of the most loyal allies, into the abyss. Given the deplorable state of the industry, there is an abundance of gas in the neighboring country, and the only question is what Kyiv’s conditions would be in the event of such “emergency” supplies. One cannot exclude New Year’s surprises from the Kremlin, which, for example, after several months of pressure on the rebellious Georgian region of Abkhazia, suddenly responded to the appeal of local leaders and resumed the export of electricity. We have not yet seen such calls for assistance to Transnistria. But it can be assumed that Moscow and Tiraspol have such a plot development in store, when a few days before the new year, the Russian Federation declares its readiness to supply humanitarian volumes of gas only for the needs of the left bank, passing the ball to Chisinau and Kyiv. Such a scenario is also supported by the fact that Gazprom hasn’t reduced gas volumes through Ukraine, despite the termination of Austria’s OMV long-term contract in early December. Consequently, Austria still continues to receive Russian energy resources in the same quantity.