“Moldova Is in a Fragile Geopolitical Environment”

Sergiu CEBAN

The ruling regime in Moldova risks not fitting into the realities of the changing international environment, which increasingly resembles a minefield

Judging by how 2025 started, the international environment promises to be even more turbulent than before. It seems to be a good time to buckle our belts and prepare for the tailspin into which the world is rapidly descending. How we build relationships with our key partners and other states that influence our internal and external environment will determine whether we do not become hostage to geopolitical maneuvers and deals. Despite the new year, we are still watching the end of the 2024 political season, which will come only on 20 January after the new American president takes office. How Donald Trump will behave after his return to the White House can already be judged by his extremely egregious statements: his desire to annex Greenland, regain control over the Panama Canal, and make neighboring Canada a new US state. And he hasn’t even made it to the inauguration yet. The likelihood that Donald Trump’s behavior in international affairs will continue to be unconventional is not that low, given that this is not his first term and that he is perfectly aware of what he is saying.  Although at the end of his first term Trump personally tried to promote a deal between Serbia and Kosovo, we do not think that the White House will directly take Moldova by hand and start, for example, to push hard for a solution to the Transnistrian issue. Rather, our country may get some outlines of its geopolitical status in one package with the Russian-Ukrainian settlement. In this context, it is crucial for Chisinau to convey a principled vision of the country’s future to the new American administration in advance. How convincing it will be is another question, but it does not cancel this important diplomatic task. After all, regardless of the outcome, there will definitely be a dialogue between Washington and Moscow this year, and the situation on the post-Soviet perimeter will obviously be one of the key points. The European Union, perhaps, remains one of Moldova’s most predictable partners. The bureaucratic and political management structure in Brussels, which has been preserved after the elections to the European Parliament, inspires optimism in the sense that even in case of some cooling with the USA, the current Moldovan authorities can still rely on the EU support. And the main hopes of our functionaries are probably connected with the beginning of full-fledged negotiations on the EU accession in the second half of the year. However, the EU looks politically united only at first glance, in fact sliding smoothly towards internal turmoil. By the end of the year, European politics may significantly change its appearance and content if right-wing conservative forces in the member states gain access to real power. The new White House administration, whose representatives are already unashamedly giving political support to nationally orientated parties and leaders, will play its role. And this should really be a wake-up call, including for our ruling Party of Action and Solidarity. Romania remains one of the most reliable neighbors and partners who are interested in preserving Moldova’s stability and its current political course. At the same time, if in previous years, due to regional and geopolitical circumstances, politicians tried not to discuss integration scenarios between Romania and Moldova “out loud”, Donald Trump’s demonstrative disregard of the principle of borders’ inviolability may seem to many as a “window of opportunity” to create a common state. But it will be possible to talk seriously about any Unionist projects only after the neighboring country overcomes the acute internal political crisis. Although the ruling coalition has already called new presidential elections, the possibility of Calin Georgescu winning them is still high. In case of the election of a non-party sovereign candidate, who is also likely to be supported by Washington, Romania may face a complex and years-long internal political realignment. And Moldova risks falling off Bucharest’s list of priorities for a while. Ukraine is the second and no less important neighbor, on which a lot depends both in terms of security and territorial integrity of the state and prospects for European integration. Due to the specific nature of decision-making in the European Commission and other European institutions, as the experience of recent days shows, in case of urgent or emergency assistance Moldova can rely only on Kyiv to cope with the same energy crisis. However, this year the situation inside Ukraine or the situation on the front line may change dramatically. Chisinau continues to expect the subsiding of the conflict and its further settlement with due consideration of Kyiv’s interests, which will a priori reduce the risks of Russian influence on Moldova. However, the broad internationalization of the war with the involvement of all global players may determine the end of this crisis according to an extraordinary scenario, with the immersion of the entire regional space in a completely different reality, for which no one was prepared. Even though Russia is not considered by Moldova as a friendly state or development partner, it still has opportunities to exert a serious influence on our state. The gas and electricity deficit experienced for a week now is a clear example of the fact that all the claims about gaining “energy independence from Moscow” are, to put it mildly, exaggerated. We can try to ignore Russia, bluster with loud accusations and expose “the Kremlin’s insidious plans”, but the fact remains that Moscow is still a powerful foreign policy factor for Moldova. And if we take into account all the above-mentioned global and regional trends, it cannot be excluded that Russia will both preserve its levers of influence, and, moreover, will gain the new ones. It is easy to guess that their first aim is to destroy the current ruling regime. The main conclusion, however, is that the international environment is turning into a kind of minefield. The slightest careless movement can lead to an explosion or chain detonation of an entire geographical perimeter. Our authorities, who in recent years have not demonstrated high competence and skills in solving complex problems (but rather have provoked a series of crises by their own ill-considered actions), should be much more prudent and careful in conducting international affairs.