Expert: PAS Is Losing Ground

Sergiu CEBAN

The aftermath of the energy crisis, inept management in critical industries and the approaching parliamentary elections are creating a perfect storm for the ruling party, which could lose any political prospects closer to the elections

While the public attention is focused on the most acute problem - the energy crisis - it would be worth paying attention to how the internal political situation is gradually “heating up” against this background. Despite the almost total control over the system, which the ruling regime has secured for itself, it is easy to notice certain trends that are already causing increased tension in the ranks of the authorities. The main trigger for the socio-political tensions is still the energy shock, which is felt most strongly on the left bank, but at the same time is projected on the right bank as well. The first electricity bills are already starting to arrive, which inevitably affects the mood of people and businesses. The government is trying to somehow mitigate the costs and spread the already small amount of compensation thinly. But it is obvious that this is unlikely to seriously amortize the additional expenditures of the population. If the current tariff hike cannot be broken in the nearest future, it will entail a chain of irreversible consequences in addition to price growth: closure of production facilities due to low profitability, lower budget revenues, and another wave of migration of skilled labor. The most recent example of the state gradually shedding an individual industry is the mass dismissal of railway employees. If the relevant ministry fails to find money for another extension of the inevitable, the departure of a group of railway workers will practically paralyze the northern part of the country’s logistics. It turns out that our politicians are losing their ability to govern and dooming the country to the collapse of the transport sector. It should be realized that this is happening nominally on the eve of the parliamentary elections. Officially, the dates of the elections have not been determined yet, and therefore, the start of the election campaign is also delayed. Besides, taking into account the fact that no solution with electricity supply at affordable prices is expected yet, it cannot be ruled out that the state of emergency regime will be extended for the whole year in order to organize voting in manual mode. Under such circumstances, anything can be expected: from postponement/cancellation of the elections due to unfavorable results to the creation of strict conditions of participation with the elimination of any risk of defeat for the Action and Solidarity party. However, apparently, the political leadership already realizes that the process of crumbling has accelerated and irreparable changes may occur closer to the elections, depriving PAS of any prospects. For this reason, the authorities started frantically looking for support from foreign partners. Dorin Recean went to Davos to frighten everyone with Moscow’s desire to install a pro-Russian government in Chisinau. Maia Sandu, on the other hand, gathered ambassadors at her house, painting them a far from rosy picture after the electoral autumn, if the West does not provide proper assistance. There is a suspicion that it is not only about requests for another financial injection, but also about turning a blind eye to the cleansing of the political field before the elections. It seems that Sandu visited Kyiv with a similar purpose, preparing the ground in case everything goes according to a “bad” scenario. If we look at the electoral landscape, one of the PAS main problems is that it does not have a clear scenario for going through all the electoral stages with the most favorable result for itself. From what we are witnessing, it is difficult to grasp any thought-out line at all. Despite the increasing risks, the ruling party still does not consider the option of partnership with related forces to jointly confront the opposition. Right now, PAS is facing a whole set of serious tasks, the main of which is to find a suitable entry point into the election campaign. After all, for several months now it has been bogged down in endless negative sentiments, and the government and MPs are constantly engaged in anti-crisis instead of electoral programme. All of this together makes it necessary to constantly change the strategy and shift the schedule of election events. It is also important that the current parliamentary majority has no chance of repeating the success of 2021. There are too many disillusioned voters, the electoral effect of the idea of European integration is almost exhausted. The emerging thaw between the US and the Russian Federation may play a big role. In the coming months, the two powers will try to find points of convergence. And if a compromise is reached, Washington’s allies and partners will receive an appropriate signal about the possibility of unfreezing relations with Moscow. The PAS, which has based its entire political programme on anti-Russian “hybrid resistance”, even with a great desire to parody warming with Russia, is unlikely to be able to fit into a geopolitical reality, albeit a hypothetical, but significantly different one. The opposition camp continues to watch passively, waiting for the necessary socio-political moods to burst. Perhaps, then the ruling regime will be rammed into the race in the most negative atmosphere for the authorities. So far, let’s be frank, everything is quite favorable for the regime’s opponents, and the current events make it easy to warm up the population to the necessary condition, which will ensure a high protest turnout in autumn. Of course, one of the key intrigues remains who Moscow will bet on. Unlike in presidential elections, in parliamentary elections there is more room for maneuver. This factor makes it possible to simultaneously patronize several political projects and bring them to different segments of the electoral base. Experts perceived differently the disappearance of Alexandr Stoianoglo for some time. Some saw it as a well-thought-out political-technological move to measure further demand and expectations from the former presidential candidate. Others saw it as an ongoing intrigue and invisible competition with Igor Dodon. Nevertheless, Stoianoglo’s recent return to the air indicates that he intends to participate in the struggle, and with similar tactics. Therefore, it can be predicted that he will rid his programme of any geopolitical opposition in order to attract the maximum number of supporters. Sensing the risk of losing his tacit status as leader of the left-wing opposition, Igor Dodon went ahead and did nothing better than to call on everyone to unite around his person. Obviously, no one responded, as apparently only Dodon does not know about his political toxicity. In general, the launch of the election campaign, as well as the decision on the timing of the vote, is clearly delayed. And the main reason for this, as it seems to us, is the poor forecasts of the incumbent government, which already realizes that it is gradually losing the political ground.