Is the Cold War 2.0 Nearing Its End?

Sergiu CEBAN

The end to the US-Russia standoff could be the biggest diplomatic achievement in decades. However, for all the firmness of the parties’ intentions, there is also room for reasonable doubt

The past week can already be called historic and a harbinger of new, as yet poorly tangible changes in Europe. This could be the political transformation of the continent’s states, the end of the war in Ukraine, and a renewed system of European security, including the determination of the strategic status of the large post-Soviet region. Donald Trump’s calls first to Vladimir Putin and then to Volodymyr Zelensky were the starting point. With these calls, the White House actually gave an official start to the peace process on Ukraine. Of course, it is too early to say what it will come to. Judging by the negative reactions of the Ukrainian leadership and the first consultations between representatives of Washington and Kyiv, it will be difficult to overcome three years of military and political inertia. This was followed by a speech by American Vice President JD Vance on the margins of the annual security conference in Munich. The speech was extremely vivid, with distinct revolutionary notes. This is probably the first time that the anti-globalization leadership of the US at such a high level publicly voiced a set of claims on the verge of an ultimatum. Such a blatant outburst by the new White House administration has caused confusion in European chancelleries, bringing some guardians of the old liberal unity of the Western world, literally, to tears. As a reaction, a group of 11 European leaders met yesterday for an emergency summit in Paris to discuss the situation around Ukraine and coordinate a common position amid the start of peace talks promoted by Donald Trump. The most eloquent outcome of this meeting was the German chancellor’s remarks that the topic of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine is inappropriate and that Europe and the US should stick to unity on security issues. In other words, as before, they should follow Washington’s foreign policy line. A significant part of the European, and even our Moldovan elites, oriented towards the Democratic Party, seem to have lurked, intending to wait out the “hurricane of change”, but in vain: Trump’s team, one way or another, is aimed at changing the US strategic course. For this purpose, all obstacles in the form of wars, local conflicts, and sanctions burdens, which together are sources of risks, must be removed as soon as possible. Thus, if the negotiations are successful, we may see a chain of interlocking diplomatic deals in the coming months, uncovering tough international problems that have remained unsolved for years. And this applies not only to contacts between the U.S. and Russia, but also with other countries with which the Americans have a long-standing, complex relationship. The war in Ukraine is the first in the agenda, which is not a consequence of insurmountable contradictions between Moscow and Kyiv, but a logical development of the longstanding confrontation between the West and Russia. The White House seems to have given up further support for the hostilities and is waiting for the final outcome on the battlefield. And this fact can be interpreted as the readiness of the United States to complete the second phase of the Cold War after the collapse of the USSR, which for two decades was fought in the diplomatic, ideological, sanctions and economic, information and intelligence planes. In fact, attempts are being made to end a 20-year period of pushing Russian interests, which began with the accelerated expansion of NATO to the East and the organization of a series of color revolutions, the main of which was the Ukrainian Maidan. It is not certain that the US is willing to simply cede to the Kremlin a place to project its influence. But it is possible that negotiations could be about the post-Soviet states ceasing to be a geopolitical battleground. So far, it is hard to imagine such a thing. Moreover, for the big diplomatic puzzle to come together, it will also require reforming Euro-Atlantic security, which is still perceived as something absolutely immutable. However, just a few weeks ago, the allied relations between the United States and the European Union seemed exactly the same. The words of Republican Senator Michael Lee, who wrote on the X network – “The Cold War is over and NATO is an anachronism” can be considered the first marker that indicates that the attention of the US administration will reach NATO. Below that, Elon Musk left a short comment, “NATO needs an overhaul”. One might not take these records seriously were it not for the realization of Musk’s place in the hierarchy and how dashingly he has muzzled USAID. Therefore, one cannot rule out that the next object of his audit may well be the North Atlantic Alliance, or, more precisely, the promotion of the issue of US spending on supporting the military bloc in comparison with other members. We are more interested in what exactly awaits Ukraine and Moldova, given the possible agreement between the White House and the Kremlin. Whether it will be a subsidiary form of presence in our region or a geopolitical condominium of two or more powers. If the United States, the EU and Russia fail to reach an agreement on the issue of pan-European security, we should not expect great prospects on the horizon: most likely, we will have to prepare for the status of a buffer zone. But if there are real significant shifts in Washington-Moscow relations, including positive cooperation in the post-Soviet countries, the need for a profound reorganization of these states will be in full swing. This will inevitably entail political reformation, building a new foreign policy course, which is currently oriented towards joining Western institutions and rigid confrontation with Russia. For Moldova, the internal political reassembly may well be synchronized with the Transnistrian settlement. The end of years of confrontation and the conclusion of a lasting peace at the end of the Cold War may rightly be the greatest diplomatic achievement of recent decades. However, for all the firmness of the parties’ intentions, there is room for reasonable doubts. One can recall the “reset” of US-Russian relations in 2012, which remained a bright idea, as it quickly ran into an insurmountable wall of Russian-American contradictions. Whether it will work now, we will find out soon enough. In the meantime, our authorities seem to be lying low, following events around them and looking at forecasts and storm warnings. Be that as it may, it will not be possible to wait it out. The keen eye of Trump’s entourage has already fallen on neighboring Romania, and there’s no guarantee we won’t be the next target. And as soon as the first statements come out of Washington, the ruling regime will have to decide whether to grab a sedative, a phone or a suitcase. Alas, the political loyalty of PAS to quite specific forces in the United States and the European Union, which is known to everyone, has played a cruel joke on the ruling party, depriving it of the available foreign policy maneuver and the opportunity to find common ground with the new American leadership.