The Last Year of PAS

Sergiu CEBAN

The bright yellow paint that colored Moldova’s facade in 2021 has finally peeled off. Therefore, we should not be surprised if our country will face another electoral and political overhaul closer to autumn

Although the ruling party has temporarily managed to cope with the energy crisis, the overall situation in the country is extremely fragile. The sum of unresolved problems, combined with the political scandals that arise on a weekly basis, is a clear sign that the PAS, for various reasons, is simply unable to bring about positive changes and has completely exhausted its managerial and intellectual resources. The railway situation, the endless and, in fact, failed reform of justice, the cold confrontation with Transnistria and Gagauzia, the disputes over commercial areas at the airport and school textbooks - all this and much more hangs a “sword of Damocles” over the regime. And, consequently, over its prospects in the next elections. Therefore, having put all the most acute problems aside, the Action and Solidarity party started to prepare for the election campaign, as before, looking for a suitable background for its start. So far, it seems that the party’s political technologists are focusing on internal reshuffling, selecting the most loyal functionaries: there will not be enough room for everyone in the new parliament. And, of course, the personal rating of Maia Sandu, who is destined to be the main frontman of PAS, is very clearly being dragged by the ears. For this reason, the opposition began to target the head of state with hinting that she will not finish the second mandate and will bear personal responsibility for her party’s creation. The statements of PAS tops about their readiness to go into opposition look a bit odd. It seems as if they take into account the possibility that the power will be lost and everyone will have to go into passive defense. From the point of view of political technology, the reasoning on this topic seems ill-conceived, as even indirect signals of possible loss demotivate supporters. This behavior can be explained by internal confusion, when everyone acts not according to a common plan and tactics, but according to their personal understanding of the situation. Few people know what’s really going on inside PAS. But from the statements and actions of certain characters, one can easily grasp that the situation is hardly encouraging. Andrei Spinu, who, by his admission, “closely follows” the events taking place in the country and seeks answers to the questions with everyone, has noticeably emerged from the shadows: What will the parliamentary majority be like after the elections? How will their results affect the life of citizens? How can society support Moldova on the right path? It is obvious that Spinu is not going to sit behind the decorations of the political process. We will not predict that he will launch his own electoral project soon. And we doubt that he will openly support anyone because of his increased “political toxicity”. But perhaps in this way the ex-minister is throwing a cry to his group inside PAS and other party members who have come into conflict with the leadership and realize that the chances of getting into parliament again are slightly more than zero. It is far from certain that the new electoral projects will be strictly pro-European, given the strength of the geopolitical winds that are already blowing towards our region. Whether someone wants it or not, the foreign policy environment surrounding Moldova will change significantly in the next few years. How exactly, hardly anyone can say unequivocally now. But it will definitely be something new, adapted to the realities of the next era. It is important for Chisinau to adjust to the appropriate geopolitical mood and not to get out of sync with the actions of major international players, as well as our immediate neighbors. If we consider Ukraine, the military actions there will be heading towards completion and, to all appearances, towards the smooth winding overthrow of Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime. It appears that the United States intends to gain a foothold in the territory of our eastern neighbor in order to extract minerals and control the spending of post-war reconstruction funds. Therefore, the future parliament and government would do well to abandon the PAS pro-Ukraine position that has become so familiar and engage in the process of rehabilitating the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure in order to make the most of it. Nothing good awaits Maia Sandu and Co. beyond the Prut if Calin Georgescu manages to become president with the support of the new US administration. Last week he already threatened Sandu with consequences for openly supporting one of his rivals. We hope that the head of state and her entourage will be smart enough to distance themselves from the elections in the neighboring country at least for now, so as not to spoil relations with Romania. The combination of internal and external factors puts our ruling regime in an extremely difficult position, pushing it to seek not only monetary support, but also an answer to the question of how to build a further attitude. For this purpose, we think, Maia Sandu has visited Germany twice in recent weeks under plausible pretenses (participation in the Munich conference and receiving another award from a German foundation). After the coordination centers in Washington were disbanded, it seems likely that Berlin will take over further political patronage over PAS. The behavior of Brussels, which six months before the parliamentary elections seems to know something and, through delegate Janis Mazeiks, either warns or threatens the Moldovan electorate, saying that Moldova’s European integration may be suspended or even stopped if the vote is not “free and fair”, is also noteworthy. This sounds very ambiguous. It seems more like if the EU does not like the forces that will win in our country in autumn, it will not recognize this choice of the people, just like in Georgia. External curators are trying hard to keep PAS afloat politically. But so far, the process of collapse of the ruling regime, which for the last few years has held on only at the expense of Western resources and a specific geopolitical projection, is only accelerating. The bright yellow paint, which was used to cover Moldova’s facade in 2021, has finally peeled off.  Therefore, we should not be surprised if our country witnesses another electoral and political overhaul closer to autumn.