Trump and Putin: The Fate of the Post-Soviet and the Black Sea Regions

Sergiu Ceban

The White House and the Kremlin are finishing the Ukrainian game, shaping the post-Soviet region’s geopolitical future.

As you know, Trump and Putin spoke on the phone yesterday. The upcoming conversation between the presidents had sparked high expectations and numerous expert theories. However, in the end, the intrigue surrounding Russian-American contacts remained unresolved, and the prospect of ending the war and resolving the conflict is still unknown to the wider international public. The leaders spoke for two and a half hours, which is quite long for any working conversation, especially for politicians of this level. The publicly disclosed details of their discussion amount to no more than a 30 or 40-minute talk, making it clear that the conversation was far more detailed and covered a wide range of topics. These discussions will shape the foundation and backbone of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Notably, both sides released almost identical press statements, which were clearly agreed upon in advance. This indicates a significant increase in coordination between the White House and the Kremlin, including in how their contacts are presented to the public. Given the sensitivity of some of the topics discussed, Washington ultimately decided against holding a press conference with Donald Trump or allowing direct interaction with the media. Avoiding lengthy political wording, the key aspects of the Ukrainian issue can be summarized as follows. Both countries are ready for a joint, thorough discussion of settlement pathways aimed at achieving lasting peace. At the same time, Moscow has openly outlined several fundamental demands: a complete halt to foreign military aid and intelligence sharing, as well as an end to forced mobilization and the rearmament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The only practical agreement was a 30-day moratorium on strikes against energy and infrastructure facilities, which Kyiv supported, as it had initially proposed a temporary halt to such attacks. Meanwhile, both countries plan to negotiate a ceasefire in the Black Sea and ensure safe navigation. Recognizing the potential of their relationship and the special responsibility of the U.S. and Russia for global security and stability, Trump and Putin decided to form expert groups to address key issues. The first meetings of the negotiating teams are expected to take place this Sunday in Jeddah. Obviously, both sides have kept much to themselves. The diplomatic process is in its most active phase, and neither Washington nor Moscow intend to reveal the full details of the discussions and the intricacies of their complex agreements. Given the coordinated way in which the results of the talks were highlighted, it’s safe to say that, at best, we’ve been given access to only 10% of what the Americans and Russians are discussing with each other. Of course, not everything was agreed upon, such as a complete ceasefire. However, both countries did everything possible to eliminate any interpretations or suspicions that the negotiations had failed. Given the full range of contradictions accumulated between the United States and Russia over the past few decades, expecting them to be resolved in a single call would be highly naive. The dialogue will be long and difficult, and Ukraine will likely become a zone of cooperation and convergence of interests within the new system of international balances. It’s obvious that many forces are interested in stalling the Russian-American negotiations and pushing the White House and the Kremlin back into a state of confrontation. Both presidents’ inner circles are well aware of this. Therefore, despite Moscow’s seemingly firm stance, Putin surely understands that there is unlikely to be a second unique opportunity to reach an agreement with the U.S. against the backdrop of a fractured global West. Despite the fact that limited information was released to the public, let’s try to understand what other points the states agreed on and in what direction the negotiations will move. The first and most important point is that the war will not be stopped according to the United States’ initial plan – through a temporary truce followed by a comprehensive settlement – but rather through a targeted suspension of hostilities alongside intensive work on a final agreement. Since the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis will account for multiple aspects, it is clear that, in addition to the military aspect, it is crucial for the U.S. and Russia to reach agreements on nuclear energy guarantees, electricity, gas exports, logistics, port infrastructure, and other related issues. How exactly the balance of interests will be ensured remains unclear. However, judging by certain characteristic signs in Trump’s team’s behavior, a mechanism of joint asset management in the form of concessions is quite possible, aimed at deriving both commercial and political benefits. In these broad negotiations, Moldova is interested not only in the approach the new White House administration takes toward our region but also in the Black Sea agenda, particularly the status of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ahead of Trump’s conversation with Putin, the U.S. negotiating team had already announced discussions on the situation in the Black Sea area. Clearly, the agenda includes not only the cessation of strikes on port infrastructure but also the resolution of all military-political contradictions, the demilitarization of coastal facilities, and ensuring Russia’s monitoring and commercial-logistical access to them. In this sense, the fake news in the American press about the Trump administration potentially recognizing Crimea as Russian, including at the UN level, do not seem accidental. U.S. media are actively discussing Ukrainian concerns that the White House might make concessions to Putin regarding certain parts of the country, including Odesa and its critically important infrastructure. No matter how the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict unfolds, it will undoubtedly affect Moldova’s interests. The worst part of this entire political script is that the negotiations are developing according to the worst-case scenario, in which Washington and Moscow are making a grand agreement solely between themselves, without considering other stances, and periodically imposing their decisions on the respective capitals. One can endlessly debate and make bold statements about “red lines”, but the geopolitical reality is, unfortunately, so ruthless that any attempts to resist it will be harshly suppressed. Therefore, the Moldovan authorities can only silently watch as the White House and the Kremlin bring the Ukrainian game to a close, thereby deciding the geopolitical fate of the post-Soviet space.