Dan’s Win in Romania: A Temporary Halt to Political Change

Sergiu CEBAN

The process of internal transformation has been set in motion, one way or another, and the data suggest it’s steadily becoming an irreversible trend. While Nicusor Dan’s victory may, to some extent, symbolize continuity with the current course, it essentially reveals the pressing need for deep reforms within the country’s political system.

Yesterday, Romania held the second round of its presidential election. A total of 11.7 million citizens, both domestically and abroad, exercised their right to vote, resulting in a high turnout of nearly 65%. The winner was Nicusor Dan, a centrist and staunch supporter of the European Union. He managed to convincingly defeat his opponent, George Simion, who had been widely seen as the frontrunner. Amid strong public mobilization and fears of radical change, the outcome of the vote became a symbolic choice in favor of stability and a pro-Western course. According to the final results, Nicusor Dan secured around 53.6% of the vote, while Simion received 46.4%. This outcome undoubtedly surprised many experts, especially considering that in the first round Simion had led Dan by nearly 20 points. However, the course of the campaign over the past two weeks, and the influx of additional resources, including from Brussels, dramatically shifted the balance of power. Nicusor Dan, a mathematician by education, studied in Paris in the early 1990s. It was during this time that he likely built strong ties with France, which would later become a key state interested in his electoral success. He rose to political prominence in the early 2010s as an urban activist and founder of the Save Bucharest Association. In 2015, he founded the Uniunea Salvați Bucureștiul (USB) party, which was later transformed into USR, the Save Romania Union, eventually becoming the third-largest force in parliament. In 2020, Dan was elected mayor of the capital, earning a reputation as a principled administrator, though he also faced criticism for bureaucratic inefficiencies and a lack of significant results in the areas of transport and public utilities. The leader of the ultranationalist AUR party, George Simion, declared himself the new president even before the vote count was completed, calling it a victory of Calin Georgescu. Later, Simion claimed the election had been stolen, and according to some reports, AUR members began receiving messages urging them to take to the streets in protest on Monday, May 19. However, by morning, the candidate ultimately conceded defeat and congratulated Dan on his victory. The new president’s first task will be to help form a stable pro-European coalition in parliament – a critical factor that will determine whether the necessary reforms can be implemented. Romania is a parliamentary republic, where the president holds limited but significant powers. For instance, the president appoints the prime minister (with parliamentary approval), serves as the supreme commander of the armed forces, and can influence the political agenda through veto power and referrals to the Constitutional Court. In terms of preserving the dominant position of traditional parties such as the PNL and PSD, Nicusor Dan’s presidency will serve as a test of political resilience, integrity, and capacity for compromise. His lack of formal party affiliation may prove both an asset and a liability. On one hand, Dan is unbound by partisan obligations, granting him a degree of autonomy. On the other, implementing his electoral agenda will require constant negotiation with parliamentary factions on virtually every issue. Meanwhile, there’s no certainty that the current political system is prepared for constructive engagement with the new head of state. Dan assumes office at a challenging time for the country, as the economy is still recovering from the effects of the pandemic and inflationary pressures, while living standards in rural areas remain critically low – a situation that largely fueled Simion’s rise in popularity. Of course, there is hope placed on European Union funds, though the EU should arguably pay much closer attention to Romania’s socio-economic conditions, especially after political developments in the country nearly followed the “Hungarian scenario”. As for the foreign policy, it is safe to say that no dramatic changes are expected in the near future. Bucharest will continue to demonstrate its commitment to the European Union and NATO, an important point in Romania’s international positioning. In addition, during the election campaign, Dan expressed his intention to intensify his involvement in regional initiatives, with a special focus on Black Sea security and support for Ukraine. Obviously, these elections attracted considerable attention from the international community, particularly from Brussels and Washington. As a result, despite expectations, the regional context remained as it was, allowing the European establishment to temporarily “breathe out”. The anticipated right-wing conservative upsurge sweeping Eastern Europe ultimately broke in Romania. The liberal-globalist elites are likely feeling satisfied and are sending a symbolic “cheer” to Donald Trump, who expected his new policy course to be a harbinger of global transformation not just in the US but also in Europe. Meanwhile, some electoral intrigue lingers in Poland, where three right-wing candidates together secured over 50%. Two politicians representing different political poles made it to the second round: Rafal Trzaskowski from the moderate wing of the ruling Civic Platform party and Karol Nawrocki, backed by the leading opposition Law and Justice party. Notably, between the first and second round, Simion travelled personally to Warsaw, where he openly supported Nawrocki at a joint rally in the Polish town of Zabrze referring to him as the future president. Regardless of how events unfold, the recent vote has served as a clear indicator of the complex state of Romanian society, which is showing unmistakable signs of division. For Nicusor Dan, it will be crucial to establish dialogue with Simion’s electorate, who feel alienated from official Bucharest. Without effective unifying policies from the new president, the country risks plunging into confrontation and permanent political instability. The leadership of Moldova and the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) can breathe a sigh of relief: the overwhelming support for Nicusor Dan from Romanian citizens residing in Moldova has served as a political signal of stability. A victory by George Simion could have marked a significant shift in the regional dynamic and altered the balance of power within the country. However, the election results will probably create a favorable backdrop for the consolidation of PAS and increase the prospects for maintaining the current political regime ahead of the parliamentary elections. The main outcome of the major electoral cycle spanning 2024 to 2025 is a symbolic yet unmistakable warning from voters to the political elite. Society has given a “yellow card” to the establishment, expressing growing discontent with the country’s current trajectory. The declining support for mainstream politicians and the rise of opposition forces reflect deep-rooted public sentiment and a clear demand for genuine change rather than its imitation. The process of domestic political transformation is, one way or another, underway, and the data suggest it’s becoming an irreversible trend. While Dan’s victory may to some extent symbolize continuity of the current course, it fundamentally underscores the urgent need for deep reforms and structural changes within the country’s political system.