Expert: Social and Political Crisis in Romania Weakens PAS Regime

The vibe between Maia Sandu and Nicusor Dan, based on a common political genesis and mutual services, could have become a strategic resource, strengthening the regime in Chisinau. If Romania were not in a very difficult situation, probably the most difficult since joining the European Union

Anton ŠVEC, RTA: Romanian President Nicusor Dan paid last weekend a cultural visit to our country to attend a music festival together with Maia Sandu and to go hiking, which she likes so much. The conciliation between the leaders from the two banks of the Prut is in blossom and seems to be an important element that provides Moldova with a reliable rear amid modern geopolitical turbulence. Sandu’s friendship with Dan was tested by concrete bold and legally not indisputable steps. First, PAS drastically tampered with the presidential elections in Romania, supporting the establishment candidate and providing him with the most important votes that secured his victory over the anti-system candidate George Simion. Then, as a return favor, Nicusor Dan secured a ban on entry into the European Union for several regime’s electoral competitors in the upcoming parliamentary campaign. Complicity in specific political moves always brings the interested parties closer together, distributing responsibility and hedging risks. From now on, the heads of the two states will act in a political alliance, which theoretically plays into Chisinau’s hands. This arrangement could be very useful with regard to some existential state tasks, for example, tackling the issue of the national territorial integrity. Moldova has been closely monitoring for several years Azerbaijan’s relevant experience, and recently Maia Sandu spoke extremely complimentary about the deal between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, reached in the White House with the “peacekeeping” presence of Donald Trump. The President’s Office understands well that Turkey has become Baku’s main resource and support in the liquidation of Nagorno-Karabakh, providing decisive military, intelligence, financial and diplomatic support to Azerbaijan’s plans to restore constitutional control over the long-lost territory. Romania should be a similar factor for Chisinau in the scenario of reopening the Transdniestrian conflict and even in the final liquidation of the Gagauz autonomy. In this case, the vibe between the two presidents could prove to be a valuable tool for Moldova while protecting its interests, from border security and the stability of the current authoritarian regime to lobbying in the European Union. The difficulty is that, while remaining a reliable ally, Romania is plunging into an insurmountable political crisis, where Nicusor Dan increasingly resembles the notorious “lame horse”. He has already withdrawn from his daily duties, ignoring efforts to overcome the consequences of the flood in his country, as well as the funeral of the first post-communist leader Ion Iliescu, which irritated some parties in the ruling coalition. The austerity measures being implemented in Romania under the dictation of the European Union are turning into a serious social and political crisis. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan could not find a common language with the education workers’ union, and the talks held on Monday failed. The union federation strongly disagrees with the cuts in funding and the increase in labor standards in schools, which could lead to mass layoffs and a delayed start to the school year. Now, teachers, lecturers and students are going out on protests, threatening to become general by September. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats, the key systemic party and one of the pillars of the current political structure in Bucharest, initiated a boycott of the ruling coalition meetings, putting forward several demands to their colleagues on adjusting the government’s financial and economic path. They include reindustrialization, upgrading of regional infrastructure and cutting special pensions and payments in state agencies and enterprises. These proposals, despite their vague nature, have already received a positive response from voters, but are unlikely to be adopted by the government. There is no money for the development of industry and communications, and cutting spending on former judges, prosecutors and the privileged bureaucratic layer could provoke the loss of the most loyal support of the establishment. It seems that the party led by Sorin Grindeanu is carrying out a long-overdue realignment and rebranding and may step aside from governance in order to restore its rating and regain the electorate previously co-opted by the so-called “sovereignty supporters”. In such a scenario, the minority coalition will take on all the costs of governance during a period of budget austerity and may face early elections. The situation could also turn out badly for Nicusor Dan personally. He has already lost his closest ally, Deputy Prime Minister Dragos Anastasiu, who resigned after evidence appeared in the media that his company had bribed a tax inspector who was later convicted of corruption. Sooner or later, given the budget sequestering, retrenchment of aid to Moldova and Ukraine will arise, which, according to Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s recent admission, amounts to 3% of GDP. But Nicusor Dan, having received clear political support from Kyiv and Chisinau, will not be able to “roll back” in this issue. This will inevitably increase the pressure of voters, who are already dissatisfied with the cooling in Romanian-American relations and the growing influence of the European bureaucracy with its extensive demands for budget discipline, climate agenda, LGBT rights, etc., which diverge from the values of the major population. Nicusor Dan may soon end up in a situation where prospects for stabilizing the domestic political contour and social situation in Romania will be on one side of the scale, and the interests of partners – Maia Sandu and Volodymyr Zelensky – on the other side. This will become a political zugzwang. The challenges met by the Romanian president may become a headache for Maia Sandu, who is in the crucial stage of the election battle, which will require absolutely all available instruments to retain power. If Bucharest becomes a factor in weakening the PAS regime, its prospects will become even more obscure.