Treading Water: Why Is Moldova’s EU Integration Losing Momentum?

Just a couple of years ago, Moldova’s accession to the European Union was associated with candidate status, ovations in Brussels, a historic window of opportunity and a bright future. Today, however, the issue is increasingly becoming routine, no longer inspiring much hope among the population. The problem is not that anything drastic has happened to European integration. Rather, what once looked like a promising prospect is slowly turning into a long-term process, with no clear end in sight. It is precisely this dull phase, lacking momentum and optimism, that is quietly eroding public trust in the European project and, with it, support for the current authorities. From the second half of the year onwards, it is safe to say that the period of major breakthroughs on Moldova’s path to the EU has effectively come to an end. Candidate status, the official launch of accession negotiations and the opening of the first negotiation chapters were achieved in record time, both compared with other countries and by the standards of EU enlargement. Let’s be honest: behind each of these leaps forward lay not so much our country’s technical preparedness as the geopolitical context, in which, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, Brussels needed to define the boundaries of its sphere of influence. However, all these geopolitical gestures do not automatically translate into membership. Consequently, the accelerated completion of several stages has given way to a tedious screening process and other procedures that will take years to align national legislation and adapt the candidate country to the tens of thousands of pages that make up the EU’s legal system. This is an inevitable and, in a sense, unavoidable part of the journey, as it is precisely here that the true weight of a candidate’s ‘European credentials’ is put to the test. The ‘fast-track’ integration promised to Moldovan voters has, as expected, turned out to be a political sleight of hand, and the process will now proceed strictly in line with technical requirements and established timetables. And so it was not long before the first setbacks began to emerge, even in such a clearly laid-out plan. In early September, at meetings of the EU Council’s working groups on enlargement, the issue of blocked negotiation clusters flared up once again, as Hungary continues to obstruct their opening for Ukraine. Formally, Budapest says it is prepared to discuss Chisinau’s integration separately from Kyiv’s. But in essence, this gesture of goodwill changes nothing, since the overwhelming majority of EU member states categorically refuse to separate the Moldovan-Ukrainian tandem. While the fate of the negotiation track is being decided at the EU level, another problem is brewing within Moldova. Criticism is growing louder among experts and opposition politicians that the dialogue with Brussels has turned into a bureaucratic exercise. Drafting reports, harmonising wording and meeting formal criteria have taken the place of genuine economic modernisation. This does not mean that reforms are useless – one way or another, a common set of rules with the EU is indeed essential. The point here is something else. When the main measure of progress becomes the number of directives harmonised rather than, say, the standard of living, the whole process starts to look like a mere charade. After all, for ordinary citizens, all these negotiation clusters are nothing more than an abstraction. Meanwhile, rising utility bills are a very tangible reality. Tellingly, the authorities are increasingly launching information campaigns to explain where European grants are actually going. To be honest, this is a worrying sign: if European integration has to be constantly ‘sold’ to the public, it suggests that people no longer see it as an obvious benefit. Added to the external obstacles and complexities is a factor that Chisinau cannot avoid the Transnistrian region, whatever the negotiation timetable. A study presented last week with the support of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation points directly to Moldova’s strategic dilemma: EU accession before the country’s reintegration carries enormous risks of entrenching the division along the lines of the ‘Cyprus scenario’. It is quite clear that Brussels does not wish to import further frozen conflicts into the bloc. Cyprus, with its divided territory and dual legal regimes, is a model European capitals are reluctant to recall, let alone seek to replicate. The events of recent months have only complicated this dilemma rather than brought the Transnistrian issue any closer to a definitive resolution. Chisinau’s measures aimed at economic unification, including the introduction of VAT and excise duties for importers from the region, as well as tighter controls on energy imports, are officially presented as an effort to restore order and level the playing field for businesses. Tiraspol, however, sees this as pressure that leads not towards a gradual settlement, but towards mounting socio-economic tensions that could ultimately spill over into military conflict. It is no secret that each such step reinforces the sense of siege in Transnistria and provides Moscow with further grounds. On the other hand, without such measures, Moldova will not be able to meet Brussels’ demands and fulfil its commitments to the country’s full integration without exceptions. It would be naïve to assume that the process of moving closer to the EU takes place in a vacuum. The August referendum in Iceland gave many people food for thought. By a majority of 52.8%, Icelanders rejected the resumption of negotiations with the EU, even though their country is already closely integrated into the European Economic Area. This suggests that even for a wealthy northern democracy, EU accession has become a difficult domestic political challenge. The reason is often that supporters of enlargement prefer to sidestep the uncomfortable questions of what a particular society might gain or lose once the much-discussed geopolitical imperative is set aside. The situation in the British Isles is even more telling. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have unexpectedly decided to hold referendums on independence. In public discourse, the main rationale is EU membership and a return to the “European family” as separate states. Donald Trump is adding fuel to the fire by declaring his desire to see the unification of Ireland and Northern Ireland, a sign of just how serious the changes now taking shape in “Foggy Albion” could be. All this suggests that the European integration vector is fueling territorial and identity-based conflicts within the Old World itself, not to mention Moldova, which has been riven by such conflicts throughout its independence. Consequently, it cannot be ruled out that Brussels, preoccupied with its own integrity, will take an even more cautious approach towards candidate countries with unresolved territorial disputes. Finally, the most intractable factor is the economic one. Adapting to EU standards requires tough reforms that, in the short term, raise the cost of living. Bringing tariffs into line with European levels, tightening requirements on businesses and restructuring unprofitable industries inevitably fuel growing socio-economic discontent. This, in turn, feeds Eurosceptic sentiment – not in the form of ideological criticism of Brussels, but as a simple, everyday question from our fellow citizens: “What has Europe actually done for me personally?” In fact, some experts already recognise that if European integration continues to be seen as making life more difficult for the average voter, the balance of power in the country could soon shift in favour of those opposed to the pro-Western course, potentially as early as the 2027 elections. As such, the process of Moldova’s accession to the EU is entering its most perilous phase. The initial romantic impetus is fading, and the authorities are facing a harsh reality in which they can no longer hide behind their senior partners or postpone difficult decisions of principle that also carry significant historical weight for the state. If our leadership continues to evade a decisive choice, Moldova’s European integration risks becoming an endless process of treading water, ultimately leaving it with no prospect of joining the European Union.