Sense of Proportion: Why is Moscow Dissatisfied with the Processes in Yerevan?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed concern over the recent events in Armenia. According to him, they run counter to the statements of the new Armenian government about the non-intention to pursue their “predecessors for political reasons”. After the government was replaced in Armenia and headed by the former leader of mass popular protests, Nikol Pashinyan, many experts and journalists in Russia criticized what happened in a friendly country. However, until recently, high officials of the Russian Federation have refrained from negative comments on the new Armenian leadership. The Kremlin in every possible way emphasized “equidistance” from various Armenian political forces. What are the causes of the current changes in rhetoric? Decision on the criminal prosecution of former President Robert Kocharian and CSTO Secretary General Yuri Khachaturov alerted Moscow. A common point in publications in the media is the thesis of their strong ties with Russian high-ranking leaders and military and “business generals”. It could hardly have been otherwise, taking into account that Kocharian was in office for 10 years, and Khachaturov headed the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces for 8 years and was nominated by Yerevan for the post of CSTO Secretary General. For the record, he was appointed with a lot of lobbying support from Moscow in the context of, to put it mildly, a complex reaction from other partners in the Organization. But I think Moscow is concerned not so much with the procedural issues in the “case” of Kocharian and Khachaturov, but the fact that attempts to convict the predecessors of the current authorities can provoke new acute problems inside Armenia. Not only redistribution at the power platform, but also business. So, this turbulence, in turn, will become the basis for escalating in Karabakh or along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In this case, besides existing problems in the Donbass and Syria, Moscow will have another serious crisis with the possible involvement of Turkey, Iran, the US and the EU. And there is a doubt that all the allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Unified Energy System in a single impulse will support the approaches of Moscow and its ally Yerevan. Thus, this resulted in a skeptical attitude towards the actions of the new authorities. All this, however, does not mean that Russia and Armenia will certainly enter into an acute conflict. All in all, the contradictions between Moscow and its allies arise not for the first time. But in this case it is extremely important not to make two mistakes. First, it is necessary to avoid, if possible, intensification of public disputes. The existing problems can and should not be taken out to the outside world, so as not to provoke rumors, fakes and not to ‘electrify’ the infosphere, which is already overloaded with emotions. Second, to clearly distinguish between domestic problems in Armenia and foreign policy cooperation. The destruction of the Armenian-Russian alliance is dangerous for Russia’s influence in Transcaucasia as a whole. And if possible, this crack should not be allowed to expand! Sergey Markedonov Source: telegra.ph