The first months of the year are the decisive stage of the struggle for Moldova: not only between parties for deputy mandates, but also between major geopolitical players for control of the country. According to RTA permanent expert Vladimir ROTAR, these severe confrontations promise nothing good for Moldova.
Viper's Nest
“Moldova is entering the year 2019 in extremely difficult conditions. Despite the vigorous reports of the authorities, the country is on the verge of an economic crisis. The European integration reforms finally stalled, all democratic indices reflect ongoing free fall of the Republic of Moldova. Relations with the leading foreign policy partner, the European Union, are fatally flawed. There are many problems, but few of those who are willing to solve them,” the expert points out.
As Rotar notes, the election period becomes again and again a “lost” time for Moldova. “All leading political forces enthusiastically joined the struggle for control of parliament. One by one, ministers, deputy prime ministers, mayors of large cities, and even top officials – the head of government and the speaker of parliament – are joining the electoral race. Soon the president can join them. Moldova, in fact, is now “powerless”. The real political process is shelved, and real affairs are replaced by chaotic populist steps. The main political forces show now skills in balancing while trying to take more audience. Power groups make races to the traditional “areas” of their rivals in the hope of luring at least some of the strange electorate and, making contradictory statements, disorient people even more,” the analyst explains.
According to Rotar, the mess and passions like in the Latin American series in Moldova on the way the elections give rise to great concern. “The main participants of the race are extremely hostile to each other, resembling spiders in a bottle. There is a huge set of mutual claims, “swallowed up” offenses and omissions. It is obvious that the struggle will literally “for life and death”. This very dangerous situation forces us to take risky, reckless steps,” the expert believes.
Brussels and Washington vie for control of the country
The destructive potential of internal conflicts is amplified by the geopolitical factor, which traditionally receives a “new breath” before each Moldovan election. “No matter how deliberately certain political forces of the Republic of Moldova try to tabulate the geopolitics, in reality everything is different. All is fair in war, and the geopolitical card in the Moldovan reality is almost a win-win option. Leading parties and associations have chosen capitals to their mind and are actively throwing political dust in the eyes of Brussels, Moscow and Washington,” Vladimir Rotar argues.
According to the expert, the major powers openly intervene in the Moldovan elections, making their bets. “The European Union showed the ruling Democratic Party the red card and openly supports the pro-European opposition, which is still shaky. Russia has long taken the socialists and Dodon under the wing, generously giving him gifts “for elections” like the recent abolition of duties and an amnesty for Moldovan labour migrants. The United States does not particularly hide the patronage of the current regime, since they traditionally more familiar to work in the mode of a “bad guy” belonging to their camp,” Rotar says.
At the same time, according to the expert, the battle of the leading actors for Moldova bares new faults, significantly complicating the situation. The traditional confrontation line “West-Russia” is gradually losing priority: “On the one hand, in recent years, Moscow seems to have significantly reduced its ambitions in the region. It no longer seeks to include Moldova directly in its sphere of influence. Moscow is rather concerned regarding the non-aligned status of the Republic of Moldova and ensuring a minimum set of its own interests: the rights of Russian-speaking compatriots and the guarantees of a peacekeeping operation on the Dniester. On the other hand, the West no longer acts in Moldova as a united front, having split into two conditional groups of influence.”
Each of them has diametrically opposed views on the future and regional significance of Moldova, Rotar points out. “In the future, the first party sees the Republic of Moldova as a prosperous West European democracy. It wants real changes in the country, stable implementation of reforms and predictable negotiations on the Transnistrian settlement. The official Brussels supports this group, which includes EU commissioners responsible for the Republic of Moldova, involved deputies of the European Parliament, EU officials in Chisinau,” the expert says.
The second party representing Washington includes conditional pragmatists who think only about geopolitics. “The states in the buffer zone between NATO and Russia are for them just a set of change coins in a big confrontation with Moscow. They are ready to support any regime, even with the “dirtiest” reputation, if it is ready to unconditionally follow the general line of Washington,“ Rotar believes.
The expert supposes that the struggle between these groups can be no less fierce than the parliamentary elections themselves. “It fits into the general context of the growing rivalry between the US and the EU. The opposing players will certainly pump up the geopolitical factor in the period before and after the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, increasing chaos and confusion in the country. In this situation, the most important thing for population of Moldova is not to find the country in tatters while Brussels and Washington are competing in “rope war” looking cautiously at Moscow,” the expert concludes. 
